Emir wrote:
Are there any predictions/researches it will become seasonal like flu or more kind of one-event like SARS?
Not that I know of. From all the information we have do far, I think it will be a one-time event. Though the mechanism of the virus’ emergence (animal to animal to human transmission) will certainly play a role for future epidemics as well.
Jacko wrote:
For the time being, it differs in one very obvious respect: we are unable to protect “at risk” individuals or populations by vaccination.
Of course, you are correct. This is a problem.
There are at least suggestions that it may become like the seasonal ’flu.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/
It seems that people do not necessarily become immune to it: it is possible to become reinfected. This means that like Norovirus, with which I have the delight of being infected annually, you don’t need new strains to emerge in order for a pandemic to circle indefinitely. In this respect it differs from the ’flu.
There is also a suggestion that people who are reinfected are more likely to die the second time round. I doubt anybody really knows this for certain, but it has at a degree of biological plausibility. A high proportion of deaths are in medical staff who are generally reasonably young and fit, but also more likely to be infected then reinfected.
Other questions include the long term ill health in survivors. Apparently people who recovered from SARS often suffered from scarring of their lungs.
Part of the justification for the quarantine measures is the fear that diseases that spread quickly tend to be more virulent. Imagine hypothetically a disease that makes you fall down dead an hour after you catch it. It won’t be nearly as dangerous as a disease that makes you fall down dead a week after you catch it, because people will die too fast to spread it. If effective quarantine measures are in place, there is a hope that we may select for less virulent strains of the bug, even if we cannot contain it, which in my view we can’t.
I don’t see it as being apocalyptic, but I am more concerned about it than MedEwok, and fear I shall be very busy in a few months, which I view with some trepidation.
Here’s the most interesting article I’ve read so far on how the Coronavirus pandemic might pan out:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/
Have a conference in San Francisco at the end of March which will have a good few Chinese delegates at it. Wonder if it will go ahead now. I hope so because I have a holiday planned for afterwards with family’s tickets booked!
Why all the face masks? Do people not understand how small a virus is?
hopefully the information will be more transparent outside of China. I understand that the presumed original carrier in Italy has not been found yet?
Politicians panicking.
Just over 2,600 deaths so far, and nearly ten times that number have recovered. So the overall odds are looking nearly twice as good as Russian roulette with a 6-shot revolver.
Is that anything to panic about?
We can expect that our chances in Europe are substantially better than in the third world, but should we suffer economic pain just to help prevent spread of the disease to populations with sub-optimal healthcare systems?
That would have zero effect.
Isn’t that how we eradicated SARS though – by restricting travel and public gatherings?
Jacko wrote:
Just over 2,600 deaths so far, and nearly ten times that number have recovered. So the overall odds are looking nearly twice as good as Russian roulette with a 6-shot revolver.
Recovered after needing hospital treatment, you mean. I have seen various estimates of the lethality of this virus, but none nearly has high as 10%.
Isn’t that how we eradicated SARS though – by restricting travel and public gatherings?
I don’t recall any travel restrictions in Europe although we had some SARS cases.
Graham wrote:
Why all the face masks? Do people not understand how small a virus is?
They are not very effective protecting the wearer – but not because the virus is small (individual viruses do not float through air, they are in extremely small water droplets spewed out when sneezing), but because the typical infection is from contaminated surfaces to your hands and then to your respiratory tract (mouth, nose, eyes or face in general). Hence washing your hands and not touching your face until you have done that will do a lot more good than the face mask.
But that is not their main point – their main purpose is to prevent the virus from spreading when the wearer sneezes.
Surgeons wear face masks and gloves primarily to protect the patient, NOT themselves!
We were planning to fly to visit suppliers in Italy near Milan this week, this morning we cancelled our flights.
We’ll do what we can over webex, the physical visit will have to wait.
zuutroy wrote:
I hope so because I have a holiday planned for afterwards with family’s tickets booked!Easy: skip the conference altogether and do only the vacationing part.
