I’m planning EHLE – EDDH (Hamburg) for this afternoon (EOBT 1500Z), but the TAF’s are full of possible thunderstorm activity.
The Gramet:
The orbifly TAF:
Would you cancel the flight at this moment?
Would you cancel the flight at this moment?
My meteo source only has this prob40 TSRA prediction for Groningen. Further to the east (EDDW and EDDH) there are no thunderstorm forecasts. The ones at EHGG have their base at 2500ft, so low-level VFR flight will always be an option.
The trough shown (1200 MSLP)
will translate to a PROB30-PROB40 TSRA always.
Meteox.com shows a fair bit of rubbish around but one can’t tell the vertical extent of it
The IR image shows tops estimated at FL150-FL200
Not a good day for flying high altitude IFR.
I would concur with what next on doing this as low level VFR – if you can work out a route OCAS or be sure of getting CAS transits etc etc etc.
But, now is not 1500Z and a view of the actual situation nearer the time may show an easy climb up to/via VMC and may show the destination to be clear.
Having done a round trip to Muenster yesterday with a similar situation, I would be cautious going through it unless you have radar. Was a lot of embedded stuff yesterday including right on the base leg of the approach.
Yes, my rule is to not enter IMC if there is a probability that there will be embedded CB’s.
I don’t have weather radar so can only avoid visually.
Like Peter suggested, I will wait till later this afternoon and evaluate the actual satellite weather images.
There might be an option to file a less direct route which keeps me free of the CBs. VFR would also be an option.
I also have the option to delay a few hours…
These conditions are very similar to those described here
I would not fly this unless I could see a departure route where VMC can be maintained all the way up, and similarly the destination was “OK” which means at least having a decent cloudbase so any ice picked up in the descent gets a good chance to melt off.
If you do this in IMC (with de-ice equipment) it is likely to be very rough, even if the radar shows very little. A stormscope is of relatively little use where you have “just” TCUs.
If you do this in IMC (with de-ice equipment) it is likely to be very rough, even if the radar shows very little. A stormscope is of relatively little use where you have “just” TCUs.
Your cautions are of course very sensible. Yesterday interestingly there was almost no ice and very little turbulence.
One can fly for an hour in “stuff” and get no ice and no turbulence. Then, suddenly… 
I recall one SEP pilot (nobody on EuroGA) repeatedly writing that icing is a non-issue. He was doing that for years. Then I read a post by him of a “life changing experience” where he got what sounded like inches of the stuff and nearly died.
The problem is that “we” don’t have good enough weather forecasting and reporting tools. All “proper” planes have high altitude capability (FL250+), de-ice and radar, for that reason.
For us poor pilots who don’t have that gear, the safe procedure is to maintain VMC during the departure phase, and maintain an escape route if one can’t outclimb the stuff (usually a return to the departure airport).
That’s exactly why I’m canceling today’s LDZA→LYBE.
Looking at the current data the weather on the actual route looks ok. But to the south thunderstorms are forming and moving slowly north. So I think the later the departure, the more difficult that flight will be.
