Missing comma 
Obesity is a lifestyle choice but old age isn’t.
My prediction is that a very small % of people, max 10%, will realise that trashing their health is not a good idea. To achieve even that, we will need the medical profession to go on prime time TV and recount real eye witness stories of the situation on the hospital wards. And keep doing it, day after day. Currently this is not permitted in mainstream media in the UK because anyone in (self inflicted versions of) poor health is a “victim”. And in many societies food is a huge thing; you just have to consume lots of it in any social setting. Even the small children are round blobs and they have no choice in the matter; they are forced to eat everything on the plate.
A slightly higher % of people will be working from home, but again not much, because most need the social stimulation. The older ones can do it better.
A lot of firms will go bust. A lot of firms go bust anyway – something like 90% of startups are gone within a few years – but this will be a lot worse. The demise of the retail property scene (High Street, in UK language) will accelerate. This is a pity because online does not work for everything. I saw a pretty disgusting piece on the BBC the other day where they were showing some app for scanning product barcodes in shops and then use the online price to knock down the shop assistant. If I was a shop owner I would just want to jump off Beachy Head on seeing this. This “screw everybody” thing is spreading; I know someone in mail order who gets customers asking for discounts for no reason, or “due to the virus” and to his credit he tells them to f- off.
HS2 will be fun to watch, with fewer people travelling on trains, and even fewer businessmen doing it because same-company meetings will be done online a lot more.
The extra runways at Heathrow or Gatwick will be even more fun to watch. I can’t see them being built.
Air travel will recover somewhat via “air bridges” where two countries with similar infection rates will do a no-quarantine deal. But not a lot because the very act of travelling on an airliner is a massive disease spreader, even if you fly within the same country. 1 person will probably infect dozens; maybe not with masks but that means no serving of food or drink (a good idea anyway; it’s mostly junk). France has just said they will quarantine inbounds from the UK, in retalisation for the UK move Anyway, for us GA, even the present limited foreign travel will end on 7th June.
The economic cost will be massive but interest rates are close to zero and all the time that continues, there won’t be a price to pay, anytime soon.
Getting a lot of people back to work will be hard because the 80% deal is the best thing that’s happened to many since they were born. That includes a lot of self employed, too.
Missing comma Obesity is a lifestyle choice but old age isn’t.
I think I owe an apology. I’m a little literal minded when I first get out of bed.
Without healthcare (if hospitals were overwhelmed) this figure would very probably be higher.
I can see a point to the lockdown – but it has been a squandered opportunity in so many ways.
MedEwok wrote:
Now a huge Covid-19 outbreak is making headlines, originating in an Restaurant in East Frisia (where I did my PPL). At least 50 people are quarantined, at least 7 Covid-19 positive, and that after the district in question did not have any new infections for the past seven days!
According to media there is another one after a church service in the Rhein-Main area with 40 plus infected.
I suppose it is news like these which make governments change their minds if they want to be overrun by Swiss/german/austrian e.t.c. tourists just yet.
MedEwok wrote:
This kind of event is a good wake up call to those who think we’ve already “beaten” SARS-CoV2 in Germany.
It is not beaten anywhere yet people behave as if it was. I expected the 2nd wave to become evident just about now after 2 weeks of relaxation and unfortunately it appears to be going in that direction. I guess if this trend continues we will see lockdowns until well into 2021 if not longer
Peter wrote:
Anyway, for us GA, even the present limited foreign travel will end on 7th June.
it’s funny that the UK should introduce quarantine finally when most others are considering opening up. Maybe the other way around would have been more helpful? However, as the UK appears to have the largest numbers of infected still after Mr Johnson’s original ridiculing this virus before he got it himself it makes a lot of sense to comit anyone from the UK into quarantine if they want to spread their germs elsewhere…
Personally I would have thought quarantine should even be imposed on a national basis, based on the actual infection figures of regions and cities. Those with few or no cases should impose quarantine on those who have more. or rather stop travelling and stay the hell at home, as it has been recommended (but sadly not enforced) elsewhere.
With hindsight, sure, borders should have been closed immediately an epidemic of a serious disease becomes apparent, which is probably about 1st Feb. And a quarantine of obvious candidates (skiers in this instance).
Politically, I can’t say it was doable, at the time. No democratic govt would have risked getting it wrong, with such a massive curtailment of civil liberties.
It’s like so much in history. Did Enigma shorten WW2? No, because it would have always ended in mid 1945.
Next time will be different.
Tom Clancy would have loved this.
Testing should not have been abandoned by the UK so early but they didn’t have the test kits for much longer. Politically this was also hard to admit.
Peter wrote:
Tom Clancy would have loved this.
Well, he predicted it. With Ebola but nevertheless. Same issues, same politicians who oppose e.t.c.
I shudder to think what else this guy predicted may yet hit us. Ruso-Chinese war for starters?
Peter wrote:
Politically, I can’t say it was doable, at the time. No democratic govt would have risked getting it wrong, with such a massive curtailment of civil liberties.
Well, this is what is going to bite us in the end. We are too much focussed on civil liberties to be able to discern that curtailing them for a SHORT time may avoid having them gone for a LONG time if not forever.
Did Enigma shorten WW2? No, because it would have always ended in mid 1945.
Totally off topic, but what makes you say that?
Mooney_Driver wrote:
It is not beaten anywhere yet people behave as if it was. I expected the 2nd wave to become evident just about now after 2 weeks of relaxation and unfortunately it appears to be going in that direction. I guess if this trend continues we will see lockdowns until well into 2021 if not longer
I expect you to be right. In Germany at least, the different states and local politicians seem to be vying for the top spot in who can get things “back to normal” the fastest. The Deutsche Michel (our “Average Joe”) seems to have had enough of all this and people flock to whatever opens again…zoos, restaurants, shopping malls, you name it. Most notably, the A&E’s at the hospital are full with walk-in “emergencies” again, who used to stay away during March/April.
The reality is that there cannot be such a thing as “normality” while the virus still circulated in a non-immune population. We currently have 69% of ICU beds full in the Hannover area, only 4% of which are Covid-19 ppatients. If the 2nd wave hits badly, we will be at max. ICU capacity within days!
Peter wrote:
To achieve even that, we will need the medical profession to go on prime time TV and recount real eye witness stories of the situation on the hospital wards.
This week I asked my BSN neighbor with 30 years of experience for her view. She works in one of the local hospitals. He fairly plain response was that if you have no previous underlying conditions, her observation is that you almost invariably leave her hospital intact. If you have significant underlying conditions, regardless of age, if you end up in hospital you are likely not to leave. She is to date the only person I’ve had met who has any significant experience, or in fact has known anybody having Coronavirus.
I think the long term man-made economic issue is going to be substantially worse for mankind than the natural issue, which reflects for better or worse nature’s prejudice against against the weak, and against densely populated, arguably unnatural living conditions that are only possible because of intricate and unreliable technology – technology that this episode shows is easily upset, even if only temporarily.
The health issue in our area is that the hospitals are largely empty. This is slowly being rectified as people can once again get treatment for important conditions other than Coronavirus, which while present has never even come close to being a crisis in terms of medical capacity.
MedEwok wrote:
The Deutsche Michel (our “Average Joe”) seems to have had enough of all this and people flock to whatever opens again…zoos, restaurants, shopping malls, you name it.
Same thing here.
I suppose this shows brutally that the “Average Joe” is not able to discern what is essential for his own safety. Way too many still talk about this as a “normal flu” and start to wail about their civil liberties. Well, you don’t get any civil liberties in a coffin.
