Malibuflyer wrote:
We only have initial indicators
Indeed 
Opened the first one of your “data” and the first thing I read was:
What does the evidence say?
Aside from anecdotal evidence, there is as yet little research on this issue
Hence there are no data, only anecdotes. Usually this is regarded as “fake news”. Pure whining, unsubstantiated with real data. Reading a bit more, it s clear that only those with symptoms experience one or more symptom later on (60 days), headache, muscle pain… Exactly like a flu in other words. Besides, the vast majority hardly have any symptoms at all, hence zero long time effects. Also, the ones with real hard symptoms, in the hospital balancing between life and death kind of symptoms. Does anyone really expect this person to just become 100% OK again over night? It takes time to recover from a near death experience, and it’s not only physiological.
Airborne_Again wrote:
Obviously a mortality graph says nothing about the long term effects?!
Have I aver said so? There are no data about the so called “long term effects”. It’s all anecdotal whining, which is my point exactly. It is also completely and utterly irrelevant when we have a pandemic that closes down the society. The reason the society closes down is due to the deaths and overload of hospitals, not because a small fraction feels sorry about themselves because they are not 100% well. Long Covid is 99% a distraction from the things that count.
Bad news just now. Yet another strain came over from S Africa which is even more infectious that the other “new one”, plus it is causing more severe disease in younger people down there. No more detail but it looks like those who know are pretty worried.
Also much of UK is in the highest category (4) from 26th Dec.
The majority of these are the new variant
This (the flat bit post-November) shows that people are stuck in hospital for a long time
Rant mode on
I just made the mistake of listening to the UK’s health minister, Hancock for literally 2 minutes. I think it was the start of his public address and he said something like we know the right thing to do is act quickly, act soon.
Frankly I am exasperatted with these idiots. On every occsasion they have had an opportunity to act quickly, act soon, they have failed to do so. They have failed everyone of us in the UK. It is nothing to do with hindsight, or this being the first time, which are the age old excuses. Pretty much all of this was predicted on this sage forum, so if we can manage to have this foresight, why not they?
What they have actually done is react on each occasion at the very last minute. There has been no getting ahead, simply averting absolute catatrophe of a health service that was ill prepared and run to the bone before this started.
I am afraid we really are a disgrace amoung nations, and I am ashamed of our politicians. The lot of them are light weights and not fit for office.
It is an untter disgrace. They should all be called to account, but of course they wont.
Rant mode off
Those graphs show clearly the NHS was far from breaking point for most of this year. Despite what we were being told all the time.
Funnily enough didn’t Kay Burley, Sky news’ covid interregator, then flaunter of rules for her own birthday go off to South Africa for a little holiday after being suspended for 6 months?
I also made the mistake of listening to schoolboy Hancock and was not impressed. I think I managed about 10 minutes, and not once was the economy mentioned or any sort of balancing for the measures that are being taken. Nor in the bit I heard any data presented, other than claims it will be released tomorrow.
Off_Field wrote:
I also made the mistake of listening to schoolboy Hancock and was not impressed. I think I managed about 10 minutes, and not once was the economy mentioned or any sort of balancing for the measures that are being taken. Nor in the bit I heard any data presented, other than claims it will be released tomorrow.
Hancock really really needs to go. I havent spoken to one person (without being a snob that is reasonably well educated) who doesnt share the opinion he is a hopeless. I am struggling to think of a single attribute to his credit.
On every occsasion they have had an opportunity to act quickly, act soon, they have failed to do so
I don’t agree. I think the original non-action with the returning skiers (no testing etc) was a total cockup, but every country did the same.
The govt has to balance the economic destruction with the hospital loading. The latter cannot be zero, simply because so many people are mixing and spreading it to the older ones who get ill and many of whom die. So some “cost in lives” needs to be accepted, and most govts would choose to minimise the economic cost, so long as their “NHS” is protected from an Italian-type collapse. I think the UK govt draws the line at about 1k deaths per day and perhaps 30k-50k in hospital, and above that (especially the latter) they must do whatever it takes. I am sure every other govt is doing the same.
clearly the NHS was far from breaking point for most of this year. Despite what we were being told all the time.
I don’t recall being told that at all. Most of the summer nothing was happening and the subject almost dropped off the news. The NHS was close to filling up in April, and is heading the same way again now.
I havent spoken to one person (without being a snob that is reasonably well educated) who doesnt share the opinion he is a hopeless.
I think he has an impossible job, which nobody else would want because it is a poisoned chalice, to stand up on the TV every day and give everybody really crap news, but at the same time be unable to tell the general public that so many of them are behaving like a bunch of totally irresponsible tossers. I am sure every other govt has the same sort of stooge for the TV who can later be sacrificed.
All the while running a country with a strong tradition of democracy, where the police don’t carry guns and anyway don’t want to get involved in “domestic” stuff like whether there are 20 having a party when the limit is 6.
The govt is facing multiple complex challenges, the like of which none of us has seen in our lifetimes (since WW2), each single one of which would be hard for any govt, but here we have a whole pile of them. They have Brussels trying to feck them with you know what, Mr Macron trying to feck them with the lorry drivers (now that is getting solved since most of the Brits could just sod off back to their homes for xmas while many of those trapped were actually French), trying to buy enough vaccine, trying to deploy some IT projects… The civil service is full of Cambridge arts graduates and is just not geared up for complex real world tasks. They can’t even push out a smartphone app without getting fecked over by the contractor who quoted a low price knowing the spec is fecking useless so the £££ will be made on making it work later
In March there was abundant evidence throughout Europe the course of the pandamic, and its impact on hopistals if left unchecked.
I spoke in those weeks to three consultants I know well and they all predicted with accuracy the progress. They all knew the course we were set on.
The experience of other countries was self evident.
What good reason was there to believe the virus would behave differently in the UK? None.
How well rehearsed is it amoung virologists that the best outcome is to lockdown early and get the numbers right down? Totally.
Was it known that the NHS was in no position to cope. Of course it was known.
Move to October.
How well known was it that the Autumn and Winter would see cases explode. Oh yes, just a little, it happens with every virus of this type. You might even say the art of bleeding obvious.
Did the basic maths elude the Government that the lower the numbers you go into this period the greater the chance of keeping the numbers under control? Oh yes, Hancock has just told us. How many times were we told the key is that all the measures work so much better when numbers are low. Oh yes, that would have been every briefing. My daughter has been for three tests (she is a teacher) the first took ten days before a result was produced after endless chasing, the second a week, and the most recent so far four days.
Did you not anticipate evey chance of some mutations? Oh yes, that would have been the virologists that would have mentioned this was highly likely.
Did the economists not mention that locking down before the problem was severe, would have a better outcome than a much longer lock down when it was out of control. Oh yes, but I suppose that was lost in the fog, that it would be far better to not lock down at all, which was never going to happen.
As the oppostion mentioned before the schools were on half term, this was beyond obvious the point to call time on the virus. Minimium disruption to the economy and a shorter lock down when cases were at their lowest.
No, for me one very obvious mistake after another, and then, to make matters far worse, the same mistakes again. It is school boy stuff, and I suspect the truth is our scientists could not be more ashamed.
The list is very long and this is the tip of the Icebergs.
I could go on at far greater length. Public companies that are approved for MOD work and had all the engineering expertise to produce respirators when the need was desperate. Numerous calls to offer their services – not one single call returned.
It is a disaster. One misjudgmeent after another, and I beleive the evidence is very clear. I wish it were otherwise, but I will need to see very sound arguments and explanations for each of these serious misjudgements.
I look forward to your justification for each of these actions Peter, or anyone else, and will read with interest and willingness to be persuaded.
and as to you know what. Well again entirely known, no surprises there. Entirely known the French would give us a hard time – no surprises there either. Never the less we press on regardless in circumstances were if we couldnt cope, it was the wrong decision. In all the circumstances there would have been no shame in a further extension and no one would have been surprised, other than those that are totally obsessed with tunnel vision.
In short I can forgive any course in consequence of events that could not have been reasonably predicted, but the job of Government is to make reasonable and conservative predictions and model policy accordingly, not to play fast and loose in the hope the more extreme optimism will pay dividends – and I suspect it rarely does.
Sure there were lots of other cockups, like the NHS/PHE empire building in the awarding of contracts. Typical large organisation stuff, which has been brewing for decades and is now well out of hand. Today, you can even get an MBA in procurement! Whoops I meant to say Supply Chain Management
BTW one interesting thing I read today about how the new strain (not the very latest new one from SA) was discovered: they were seeing the tier 3 restrictions in Kent and Wales having no effect. So they dug around and found it was the new strain, and the one obvious remaining infection route is via schools.
But they can’t close schools since that would bugger half the workforce and much of the NHS staff… and they need NHS staff because they are now manpower limited for the improvised hospitals, which are equipped but there is nobody left over to work in them.
I thought the lockdown was to flatten the curve,not elimintate the disease. I seem to recall it being two weeks to save the nhs and the ritual clapping for the masses, perhaps it didn’t go on for as long as it was talked about.
I do think early border control from China and the UK would have helped. But it’s difficult for a certain mindset to want border controls when free movement of people ideaology ranks most highly.
If early lockdowns worked then wales would be doing better now than England one would think.
Peter wrote:
Mr Macron trying to feck them with the lorry drivers (now that is getting solved since most of the Brits could just sod off back to their homes for xmas while many of those trapped were actually French)
That is totally off the mark. It was nothing to do with BREXIT.
Most of Europe closed down access from the UK. Ireland too (though we don’t seem to get blamed like France does, for some unknown reason).
The fact is that no action was taken to stop people leaving the UK UNTIL your own PM went on TV and announced a new strain 70% more infectious were circulating in the UK, and ordered an immediate lockdown of the capital. What do you expect other countries to do?
If the PM thinks it’s good enough for London, then surely that’s good enough for other countries governments too.
