Graham wrote:
4-5 people per day die on UK roads, but we do not lock down society to try and prevent it.
How many die of old age? We are all going to die at some point, and many from Corona. The main problem right now is bogging down the health care system. Creating an impossible situation for hospitals and it’s personnel, and in effect – all of us. This includes people injured in road accidents, or any other accident and any sickness. Haven’t you seen the graphs and simulations of smearing out the peak ?
As Peter already reported, the Czech government prohibited appearing in public without a mask or scarf across one’s face. So I had to dive into my wardrobe and find a proper attire for the occasion:
We rarely die of one thing. One dies when complications arise from the event your body is attempting to deal with. Sepsis from a kidney breakdown. Heart stops from blocked artery. Cancer from stress related anxiety etc.
You will note that in Coronavirus deaths they are generally stating ‘patient had underlying health issues’.
My mother died from complications of Diverculitus. Massive infection through her body. Sepsis. I watched her die a very uncomfortable death. It was however inevitable as soon as the diagnosis came through.
My concern with all of this chaos is that with no end stop to quarantine and shut downs it may always be with us.
It will just be something else we die from. We cannot protect everyone in society.
Cobalt wrote:
This is one of the best charts out there, mostly because it uses a semi-log scale (showing any exponential growth on a linear scale is not really helpful, my main bug-bear with stock market charts than span decades)…33% growth means a 10x increase every week.
Simple minds will just undershoot/overshoot using linear or logarithmic scales on those curves with few empirical data
Why it is hard to extrapolate from these curves? an epidemic curve (for new cases) is always bell-shaped: 1/ it grows slowly, 2/ then exponential, 3/ then flatten/peak and 4/ then go down really fast, then 5/ down very slowly, I think we are just between 1 & 2, the cumulative number of cases will just grow and we will simply just get used to it
Trying to estimate epedimic distributions before they reach 1% quantile is a tough job, while the analytics is still super sound anything we hear now has load of elements of speculation on parameters or simply use benchmarks, but it is the best we have now and at this early stage most hypothesis will be beefed-up toward more caution and prompt action (although irrespective of how one plays with parameters it seems now 25% of population will catch it even under strict confinement in next year)
The real constraint for any country is its healthcare system resources, I think this is why Germany/Japan are a bit away from death trap but this may turn up with dire predictions for UK/US along with Italy/Spain (obviously number of beds is not necessarily proxy to % of aged population or number of ventilation units but still), although nationalising healthcare or put military on top of it is not off the table yet !!
Ibra wrote:
I think we are just between 1 [flat growth] & 2 [exponential growth]
While some are still at stage 1 (deaths in Germany, for example), most countries are in the exponential growth portion…. but we are talking about two different curves here – the number of currently infected / ill (which has a bell shape) and the cumulative number of infected (which is an S-curve and never goes down).
It is encouraging to see the Chinese and Italian (cumulative) curves flattening. With the actual infection rate unknown (mild cases or non-hospital-level cases which don’t get tested), it is unclear if that is the the approaching end of the epidemic there, or only a slower growth rate that will eventually infect nearly everyone over time.
or put military on top of it is not off the table yet
Convoys of military medics are already coming into London.
Peter wrote:
Reportedly a big cluster in London, which is not surprising when you look at the horrid transport modes there.
Several friends here who are certain they had this virus in January don’t use public transport.
200,000 to 500,000 died in the first year of H1N1 ten years ago. So far that’s about 50 times the number for Coronavirus. We’ll see how the comparison works out over a full year. The number of traffic fatalities in the US is about 38,000 per year, or about 380,000 over the decade since H1N1… in the US alone.
I think the current crisis is a nightmare example of government mismanagement of risk, I could think of many ways to do it better, but you could see the problem coming: exponentially increasing government size and power for 70 years, internet communication providing low quality info faster than than it can be filtered and understood by many with power, decreasing societal risk tolerance that arose as the baby boomer generation raised children and pushed society in their “my safety at any cost” way, decreased appreciation for rational thought starting in the 1960s and many more people with enough university education and associated ego to be dangerous but with little opportunity or interest in learning through real world experience.
I was thinking two years but now I think five to ten before preexisting wealth and well-being is reestablished. I’d judge that Coronavirus itself won’t create much long term economic impact, its just been a catalyst for mismanagement. The irrational restrictions on private flying in Europe, as is so often the case with GA, highlight the wider problem.
Silvaire wrote:
I think the current crisis is a nightmare example of government mismanagement of risk,
And just when you thought it could get no worse here is end of your human rights.
exponentially increasing government size and power for 70 years,
Exponential growth is what has characterised this phase of the pandemic.
You’re an engineer. You’re supposed to understand exponents.
As with compound interest, 2% per year increase builds to a big number in 60 years.
