@Malibuflyer has the vaccine spread been exponential? Both of these lines look kinda linear to me, although with different gradients:
That’s an interesting graph and surprising. I have been thinking that France has been really slow in its vaccine roll out, perhaps the slowest in Europe. However, at the 16th March, some 5.07 million vaccines have been given here. Your graph seems to show the EU having given around 13million doses, which means that the other 27 plus countries have only delivered 8million between them.
gallois wrote:
Your graph seems to show the EU having given around 13million doses, which means that the other 27 plus countries have only delivered 8million between them.
I think perhaps you are reading the graph wrong. It shows doses delivered per 100 head of population on the y-axis, not millions of doses.
The EU has delivered a total of ~52m doses.
ERG is the ironically-named European Research Group – the fairly extreme Eurosceptic fringe of the UK Conservative Party.
Graham wrote:
Both of these lines look kinda linear to me, although with different gradients:
It’s a bit hard to see on this vertical scale – but if you look at the data for the EU graph, it is clearly exponential so far. with just a little bit of slowdown on the last 3 points.
In the UK I agree it is linear. But in the UK we are actually already at the described situation that it is unlikely that we see substantial further improvement in the vaccination project and definitely will not have to wait until next year to reach 75%.
Malibuflyer wrote:
It’s a bit hard to see on this vertical scale – but if you look at the data for the EU graph, it is clearly exponential so far. with just a little bit of slowdown on the last 3 points.In the UK I agree it is linear. But in the UK we are actually already at the described situation that it is unlikely that we see substantial further improvement in the vaccination project and definitely will not have to wait until next year to reach 75%.
The EU curve might technically be exponential, but the radius of that curve is so enormous it would be many months before it hit the same gradient as the UK line.
The UK rate varies between (in relative terms) fast and very fast. There are rumours about the supply situation (the latest is that rates will perhaps double for the next two weeks because a massive shipment of AZ has arrived from India) but no official announcements because the government doesn’t want to put the manufacturers in the firing line (contrast with UVDL’s strategy). We had a (relatively) slow period for a couple of weeks but things are picking up again – over 500k jabs yesterday and Tuesday is usually quite a slow day.
Edit: the latest is that an internal NHS letter has been leaked warning of significantly reduced supply for first vaccinations for ~4 weeks beginning 29 March. The media point to this as evidence of supply issues, but if you read between the lines it correlates with the time when second doses are going to start becoming due (3 months out from first doses) in very large numbers.
Presumably thinking about it, VDl is just playing to her gallery.
Perhaps lots of Europeans believe it is the Brits. fault they arent getting the vaccine. Sadly, by the time the politicans have wipped them up into a fervour, perhaps some of our European friends believe this.
I am afraid there has been a long history of running down the Brits., which is such a shame.
The EU vaccine data was just updated, and I have summarised it below, with a couple of individual countries. Hopefully I have not double counted anything this time.
My first reaction was: ‘Why is the EU complaining about AZ shortages when they aren’t even using what they have?’.
But after noticing the approximately 50% usage of AZ, I had second thoughts. If you have supply worries about a two-shot vaccine, it could make sense to ‘jab one, store one’.
G:\>euvacc.py filter: EU Mfr Delivered 1st Dose 2nd Dose ?? Dose %Usage --- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------ AZ 15,866,627 8,620,129 22,365 273 54.5 CN 550,000 478,853 3,936 0 87.8 COM 43,025,014 24,822,965 14,718,977 1,124 91.9 MOD 3,841,815 1,800,631 544,832 197 61.1 SPU 146,000 35,537 18,464 0 37.0 UNK 717,915 383,197 206,300 9 82.1 --- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------ TOT 64,147,371 36,141,312 15,514,874 1,603 80.5 G:\>euvacc.py France filter: France Mfr Delivered 1st Dose 2nd Dose ?? Dose %Usage --- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------ AZ 2,704,800 1,358,990 61 0 50.2 CN 0 0 0 0 0.0 COM 6,534,255 3,531,192 2,113,806 0 86.4 MOD 550,900 245,434 110,113 0 64.5 SPU 0 0 0 0 0.0 UNK 0 0 0 0 0.0 --- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------ TOT 9,789,955 5,135,616 2,223,980 0 75.2 G:\>euvacc.py Germany filter: Germany Mfr Delivered 1st Dose 2nd Dose ?? Dose %Usage --- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------ AZ 3,062,400 1,679,794 217 0 54.9 CN 0 0 0 0 0.0 COM 8,759,595 4,621,916 2,819,508 0 85.0 MOD 679,200 241,405 75,195 0 46.6 SPU 0 0 0 0 0.0 UNK 0 0 0 0 0.0 --- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- ------ TOT 12,501,195 6,543,115 2,894,920 0 75.5
Fuji_Abound wrote:
I am afraid there has been a long history of running down the Brits., which is such a shame.
But no monopoly of xenophobia there, unfortunately. You have probably heard of a certain Mr Johnson, not to mention a certain Mr Farage?
:-)
Interesting numbers. A good Q would be whether the UK is also stashing away 1 for 1 injected.
As regards the current vaccine row I doubt this will go anywhere since a load of Pfizer vaccine stuff is made in the UK but clearly UVDL doesn’t know that.
