Peter wrote:
The side effects are miniscule. They are several orders of magnitude below the numbers which are dying of the virus right now
In the UK perhaps. In Norway only seven (7, SEVEN) persons in the age 40-49 has died due to Corona. 3 or 4? persons has died in that age group due to AZ, accute immune response of the victims (all healthy medical personnel). The numbers are very clear. You got X% chance of dying due to covid. X is a tiny, tiny number. You can take this drug. It will reduce X to roughly 0.3*X. But this drug itself has a 0.5*X chance of killing you (in fact much more than this, because the current numbers involve only those who have got the vaccine, some 60-70k I believe). Clearly, most people will chose to let mother nature decide given those odds.
AFAIKS, AZ is already a lost case in Norway. “Nobody” wants it anyway anymore. Given the current situation, it’s like putting out fire with gasoline. Besides, if you are an AZ-believer, you probably will get it if you ask.
I do think we need to get away from debating whether or not there is a connection. I posted regarding this earlier, and I find nothing in the public domain to suggest anything but the most incredibly remote, and even then at a factor of 6,000 : 1 lives saved against the risk. I would take those odds all day long. It is sheer none sense however motivated, and we do need to be clear on this point. Fake news when it comes to things like this is very dangerous.
Lets be clear unless there is something we are not being told there is no proven link, and, if there is an unproven link, those who die from a clot is at most a dozen or so more than the normal background numbers every million people. Covid will kill, at least 5,000 of those without the vaccine, and probably more.
Graham wrote:
I’m afraid your numbers are simply way off
I’m afraid they are correct 
seriously, the UK is an island with peculiar solutions to peculiar problems. That is my take on this.
And Lesving have just seen your post we need to stop muddling our apples and pears. Europe is a long way from vaccinating the young. We have absolutely no idea whether this age group will suffer any statistical deviation from the normal deaths due to clots. The UK will be into this group months before Europe and IF there are any yellow card reports that are significant you can guarantee there will be plenty of warning.
I am afraid I am with others, if you dont want AZ no problem just say so and stop messing everyone else around, if not take a view on get on with it.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
Covid will kill
Yes, but how many exactly, and who. According to Worldometer the Czech republic is the country with most death per million: 2288. This is 0.23 % But lets be clear and honest. These people have died with Covid, not of Covid. 95% of those are 60 or older. Only 0.5% are under 40. So for those under 40, the chance of dying is 0.0023*0.005 = 0.00115% For the Czech republic this is roughly 11M*0.0000115*1/2 (assuming half the population is below 40) = 127 individuals.
That is 127 persons of 5.5 millions, or 23 deaths per million. Let’s say 2 per 100k get a blood cloth and dies due to a vaccine (a very small number). This is still 20 per million, and almost exactly the same as the number of people killed by the disease.
The older you are, the more important it is to get a vaccine. Above 50-60 or something is where the line goes. But, there is a line also going down in age where the vaccine itself becomes more deadly than the disease. The reason is of course that the disease is not very deadly.
Peter wrote:
Now the mainland politicians are back-pedalling, going on TV geting vacced with AZ, hoping to turn things around.
Last week you were trying to tell us our politicians were rubbishing the “UK AZ” as “demand management”. No matter how many of us tried to explain that the decision was made by medics not politicians, (medics who clearly explained their reasoning) you continued with this line.
Now you say that those same politicians are trying to push the vaccine on their unwilling populations. Which is it? You can’t have it both ways. That’s a flip flop that only Boris Johnson would be capable of. Most politicians are much more reluctant to change their positions than that. Flip flopping in politics is usually career limiting for them.
This thread has recently started to read to me like a divorcing couple arguing. The couple are no longer listening to one another. Well perhaps listening, but not processing what they are hearing. Instead they are only listening to find something that they can use to continue their own argument. Perhaps this is not surprising. The UK and the EU are divorcing and the will probably continue to mover further apart, and increasingly see fault with one another, until a crises comes along where interests are aligned.
I’ve often thought, particularly in recent years, that national media set up an argument for a nation, then walk away leaving it to the citizens of that nation to continue the argument that it started. With each nation’s media setting up it’s nation’s side of the argument.
We should all be careful not to fall into that trip, and realise that our own trusted media is in it’s own way, biased. And nobody should be thinking “yes, the other side should do that!” without considering that themselves.
LeSving, do you have any source for that number of deaths due to CVST in that age group in Norway? And do you know how many doses of the AZ vaccine have been given in Norway? What are the figures for other age groups?
The UK has vacced many young people. They did NHS staff, and – with a lower public profile – did police, fire crews etc. So there is plenty of data on side effects. It was actually with NHS staff that the recommendation to not do people with allergic reaction history with Pfizer came from.
So plenty of data there for everyone to examine.
Which is it?
Both Originally one, and later the other upon the realisation that any damn vaccine is good enough right now. There is no other endgame.
To be fair to LeSving data is quite difficult to find.
Around 1.7% of people infected with Covid and over 60 will die, 0.12% over 40.
We can debate how you measure the extent to which Covid was the cause.
In a million people the rare clot being discussed may naturally occur in around 0.0025% of the population. This is without age related weighting. I would suspect it would be higher in the over 60s.
So in the over 60s, which is the age group in which Europe took a rain check on the AZ vaccine, the risk of dieing with Covid, however much you dilute the numbers for various reasons is huge multiples of the clot risk. You can calculate how many people have died in this age group because of the vaccine delay, and how many would have died of a clot. I dont like the numbers which is why I havent posted them.
In the over 40s to 60 the risk of Covid mortality is around 0.12%, which is still 50 times the risk of a clot.
These are pretty widely available numbers and can be checked.
OK, you can play with the numbers, and doubtless argue the background deaths from the clot is less, and the death from people with the clot after the vaccine is more, and similarly the death rate from Covid is something different, BUT for the over 60s it is very difficult to see how you square the circle that the benefits of the vaccine arent multiple times the risk of a clot.
For younger age groups by all means reach a differnt conclusion, but you should have better data than me on how many younger people who have been vaccinated experience a clot, and what the background level of normal risk is. I havent seen this data.
LeSving to convince me you will need to demonstrate where this data is fundamentally wrong (emphasis on fundamentally wrong) and your source please.
