Automatic doors is gonna be a great business!
Well, except… in Tokyo up to about 10 years ago, ALL recent buildings had automatic doors. Then a child was killed in one. Instantly, every automatic door in Japan was taped off. Afaik it’s still the same.
As for speech… I’ve always preferred the company of quiet people. Just as with atheism, it had never occurred to me before that it had health benefits too!
Spain claims to have done a comprehensive survey and reports 5% immunity. Large variations between provinces. Balearics 3%.
Very similar to the UK (4%, 10% in London) and probably much of Europe.
I believe (posted here already by johnh?) that with even just 10% immune, the virus has a hard time spreading.
Iceland is opening for tourists, with a test at airport on arrival as an alternative to 14 day quarantine.
Quite a funny name
Peter wrote:
I believe (posted here already by johnh?) that with even just 10% immune, the virus has a hard time spreading.
Johnh – was that you? I couldnt see the original post from a quick scurry back, and, if so, or whoever said so, would be interested to read the context and the extent please.
Iceland is opening for tourists, with a test at airport on arrival as an alternative to 14 day quarantine.
Sounds like a holiday in Iceland is a good plan for those not being able to get a test in their home country.
even just 10% immune, the virus has a hard time spreading.
That seems unlikely to me, especially as there are some places that have higher rates of infection than that.
Peter wrote:
I believe (posted here already by johnh?) that with even just 10% immune, the virus has a hard time spreading.
10% immunity reduces Re to 0.9 x R0, so if R0 is 2.5, it goes down to 2.25. Not much of a muchness.
The herd immunity threshold is (1 – (1/R0)), so if R0 is 2.5, it is 60%.
In places with high density / lots of mingling, R0 is higher, so you need more people immune.
Of course this is the most simplistic model (homogeneous population in close proximity)
This is the NOT the point where the curve is flat – it is just the point where the curve of total infected people is linear and bends right, and the total number of new people infected every day starts to go down. Hence the number of UK deaths topping out mid-April is a good sign that R has been pushed to below one mid to late March.
If you have loads of infected people around when you hit the herd immunity threshold, you will overshoot by quite a bit, too!
Not sure if I posted that. As I mentioned before I’ve been spending (far too much) time on epidemic simulation. One thing it shows is that things are very flat above R=1. It’s not atr all the case that at R=1.000001 everybody drops dead on the spot, you just have a long, long period with a relatively small number of infected people.
