Fuji_Abound wrote:
I do feel there are two fundamental questions that we cant answer, or so it would appear.
Of cause we can’t answer these questions yet – if at all we can only answer them in a couple of years from now. Data, however, can give some hint:
1. Might be a function of time. US is an average of many different states with substantially different disease progression. Northeastcoast-Numbers are actually not substantially lower than European ones. This is where the main wave happened in March/April – as in Europe.
In the US states where mortality is substantially lower, the main wave only happened in June (and is still ongoing) – and these are driving down average US mortality rates.
The (literally) billion $ question is now, why this is the case. There are several possibilities between which we can not decide yet, e.g. deaths in these states are just yet to come, we know better how to treat or the severity is lower in warmer climate – at this point in time we even can’t exclude changes in reporting practice (e.g. that in march the states were much faster in attributing a death to Covid than they are today).
2. Is even more interesting as it has more practical implications. Again, we can only speculate about possibilities, but some of the explanations might include:
- Even though formal restrictions are lifted, practical life has still changed dramatically. While (for obvious reasons) I haven’t been in NY for quite some time, friends there report to me that still a significant number of people works from home, wears masks, etc. Broadway is still on shutdown as there are most other cultural events, etc.
- It is reasonable to assume that not everyone is equally likely to get infected even at the same position level. People with the highest susceptibility might already been gone through the infection with a higher probability while the remaining population is harder to infect.
- There might be a larger share of “hidden infections” that were symptom free and have never been tested so that the remaining pool of people to infect is much smaller than in the official numbers
Silvaire wrote:
A data error could I suppose have resulted from the July 4th holiday but no holiday issue is evident in previous years
The CDC says deaths can be reported with a delay of between 1 and 8 weeks (and that there is a manual process involved with COVID deaths, meaning these tend to get reported later rather than sooner): I would wait 8 weeks to draw any conclusions about today.
alioth wrote:
he CDC says deaths can be reported with a delay of between 1 and 8 weeks (and that there is a manual process involved with COVID deaths, meaning these tend to get reported later rather than sooner):
Wow! And Sweden got criticised for having a delay of up to 10 days!
Peter wrote:
Also countries which have heavy private funding (read: insurance based) have better facilities. In Europe, Germany is at the top of this. My part-family in Germany says how expensive the insurance is, but they do have kit coming out of their ears. The US is probably similar; they just love “kit”. The UK NHS is run on a shoe-string… to “just cope” with the rising level of obesity-driven diabetes which nobody is allowed to talk about, on top of the normal stuff.
Based on experience with all three of those systems, I’d agree with that.
Also, as I mentioned above the US tends to focus on solving problems that actually prove to exist versus restricting behavior, either legally of by social pressure, to prevent problems. As a result the US has lots of relatively hazardous individual behaviors and lifestyles, by choice, and lots of capability to adapt as required and solve problems. Also a lot of money to do it. All interrelated factors.
Some people prefer more regimentation, less variation between individuals and less creativity. I’m not one of them.
Peter wrote:
Also countries which have heavy private funding (read: insurance based) have better facilities. In Europe, Germany is at the top of this. My part-family in Germany says how expensive the insurance is, but they do have kit coming out of their ears. The US is probably similar; they just love “kit”. The UK NHS is run on a shoe-string… to “just cope” with the rising level of obesity-driven diabetes which nobody is allowed to talk about, on top of the normal stuff.
As this is close to what I professionally do I spent significant time (together with two health economic research institutes) to actually find data to prove the point (that increased private funding improves quality). Unfortunately this statement can not be shown by facts – although I fully see why it feels different for someone who has to suffer from NHS.
Reason why it is so hard to prove is manyfold. Just some examples:
- By most quality/outcome metrics (yes, it’s hard to measure health system quality) US system is not very good.
- Contrary to popular believe, US is actually spending much more public money (per capita) on healthcare than anyone else. On the other side – also contrary to popular believe outside Germany, the private spending level here is quite low (as the major part of the healthcare financing is as private as the BBC is private – and by the way a similar legal construct).
- UK quality (which is not only perceived to be bad) can be at large explained by low overall spending level
- Canada and Switzerland have a much higher private share than e.g. Sweden but the outcomes are not really better.
You could continue this list for a long time and also look at Bismark vs. Beveridge systems instead of public vs. private but the data will remain to be inconclusive.
(Source of the chart is gapminder; date is 2010 as who has a tremendous lag in getting in new health economic figures – but the beauty of 2010 is that US numbers for public HC spend is even Pre-ACA)
Virtually everybody in lock down has gained weight in the UK, there have been reports on the average weight gain in the press.
I wonder if more people will die of this over the next 20 years than ever died of Covid19. In general people get fatter and fatter as they age, the lock down has turbo charged this year.
And Peter is right, they keep saying no known health reasons. When I looked at the Guardian photos of the NHS deaths 2 months ago, most were fat or overweight but we live in times where nobody can speak the truth due to “fat shaming”
Bizarre times.
Archer-181 wrote:
Virtually everybody in lock down has gained weight in the UK, there have been reports on the average weight gain in the press
Anecdotally, that hasn’t happened here. We had few restrictions around being generally outdoors (really, just social distancing), and we had the best spring weather in probably two centuries – certainly the best spring weather in living memory – and a lot of people spent a lot of time outside. The lack of traffic and the 40mph all island speed limit that was temporarily imposed got people onto bikes as well, instead of driving everywhere.
Personally, despite not commuting since March, I’ve put 2000km on my new bike that was delivered just as the lockdown started (I do a “fake commute” every day, so I don’t lose fitness, I start doing real ones again next week).
Personal freedom is an interesting concept brough home by Covid.
I am a huge supporter of personal freedom.
.. .. .. but what do we mean, by personal freedom? Generally is it personal freedom to not take measures from the transmission of the virus? I dont know the answer, but I am inclined to think there is a point where society must limit the freedom of individuals in the collective good.
At the beginning of the outbreak, the need for preventive measures was promoted as ‘changing the curve’ to prevent the health systems from being overwhelmed.
Somewhere along the lines, people swallowed a lie that it was all about stopping the spread, rather than slowing it.
If we didn’t have global news and didn’t see the brutal measures taken in the outbreak country, only a few regions would even grasp that something is going on.
Aside from social distancing, There are no indicators that there’s a virus going around, and I’ve been in several states during the outbreak.
People aren’t dying in the streets, there aren’t mass contagions, and the hospitals aren’t overwhelmed.
Again, if there was no name for this, people would be saying there is a nasty flu going around, and it is worse than usual this year.
Political posts moved to politics/OT thread, as previously.
