Silvaire wrote:
The fatality per day in Texas has decreased for three of the last four days. I said “the last four days” which was not quite 100% accurate, but reasonable shorthand. We all know that weekend reporting affects the data, but otherwise I think that data can speak for itself. This was not a four day holiday weekend in the US.
@Silvaire Fatalities are definitely not decreasing in Texas:
Apparently not. The current fatality per day data in Texas is now 30% that of New York at its peak and Texas has moved to up 30th of 50th states in terms of accumulated fatalities per million population. About 1/3 that of the UK in that respect. I’m sure its going to be a while before the wave works its way through western US cities.
I’m about to go on a 2000 mile motorcycle trip in the western US. I’m not too attracted to high population density areas at any time and while we’ll be transiting a few, we’ll be staying elsewhere on this trip. It remains true for whatever reason that nobody I’ve ever met or known personally in my lifetime has had Coronavirus, and I’ll be aiming to keep it that way.
I just hired a guy from the east coast and he started this week. It’s an interesting situation for him right now, starting work at a new company, buying and selling houses, moving thousands of miles etc. He will however be working, supporting himself and the economy, and paying taxes on $170K annual income to support those prohibited from working.
@Silveraire
It all seems overblown until you see it close up….
3 people in my office (one a direct report) have had mild cases (confirmed by testing) and recovered. I know of several other cases outside this professional setting, but I don’t know anyone who was hospitalized (except for a recovered case of double pneumonia that was never diagnosed as COVID). I went through a new round of testing today because several days ago I was in close contact with someone who was just diagnosed positive. I was even sent a picture of my sitting near him with the distance between us measured.
The real problem is worries about infecting someone who is vulnerable. I’m in good health and think I’d get through it okay. But we all have elderly relatives or friends, or people with underlying conditions. If it weren’t for that, I would just live my life and take my chances.
For those who are concerned about whether students start school in the fall or not
Silvaire wrote:
I’m about to go on a 2000 mile motorcycle trip in the western US. I’m not too attracted to high population density areas at any time and while we’ll be transiting a few, we’ll be staying elsewhere on this trip. It remains true for whatever reason that nobody I’ve ever met or known personally in my lifetime has had Coronavirus, and I’ll be aiming to keep it that way.
While I am very confident of a vaccine, in the absence of a vaccine, it is difficult to see how you could keep it that way. IF immunity lasts for a few years, it seems to me within the next 3 to 5 years a majority of the world population will have had Covid. You may of course be in the 30 to 40% that hasnt, and herd immunity may reduce the incident in the population, but it is unlikely to eliminate the virus, so as the years roll on, it becomes ever more likely that we will each be exposed to the virus at some point. If immunity does not last for beyond a year, then the likelihood of avoiding the virus for any length of times becomes even more unlikely..
The only exception would be to move to somewhere like NZ, but I still struggle to see even in island commnunities such as this where they have been so successfully in eliminating the virus how this can be sustainable over the rolling years? It is very difficult to imagine in 5 years time that NZ or any where else will require all vistiors to quarantine for 14 days?
I am never the less confident of a vaccine which would of course make everything I have said meaningless.
It remains true for whatever reason that nobody I’ve ever met or known personally in my lifetime has had Coronavirus, and I’ll be aiming to keep it that way.
Unless you get infected and pass it on to friends and family (or not), that is not under your control!
Personally I know three friends who have had it, two colleagues and I have had one patient die of it. One of my colleagues lost an uncle (bus driver in London).
The UK’s current situation is some sizeable lockdown areas, and reportedly most of the spreading is being done by the “young” who are socialising heavily, and then 2 weeks later their parents are going down with it and with rather worse outcomes.
Inevitable really… but you can’t blame the young, who see this as a “disease of the old” and whose lives have been disproportionately crippled by the lockdown.
Just read an article about Spain’s care home situation over past few months. People left to die and left dead in their bed for days. Unbelievable that these things could have happened in a modern country in Europe.
Those with good financial means and living in a low population density area (anywhere in the countryside) and mentally self-contained, and able to do their travels in a car or a GA plane 
will be able to carry on indefinitely, but for the rest a vaccine will be the only endgame.
As the German paper has discovered, the young shouldn’t be complacent – they might not die of it but if they are sympomatic it looks like they have a good chance of long-lasting cardiac damage. It remains to be seen how long term these effects are.
The UK has an approximate currently infected rate of around 23 per 100K. The Manx government says it will move from level 4 to level 3 border procedures (for the UK) when the rate falls below 20 per 100K. Unfortunately, the UK is trending slowly upwards, so I suspect this might not happen in 2020, meaning travel is still pretty much impractical (except to Guernsey). Travel only becomes practical when we get to level 2. I think nearly everyone here is perfectly happy with that – we can after all do all our social things with no restrictions right now, and a new outbreak would put an end to that.
@kwlf, I find the easiest way of avoiding catching illnesses of any kind from other people is to stay away from other people to the extent possible, if and when appropriate. I am capable of doing this while carrying out my life, without being illegally directed in how I do it.
