Very interesting stuff posted here recently.
I have to say, this thread here was for me the most informative and the place where a level discussion was possible. Thanks all for that.
Right now as I gather most virologists and other scientists are still quite baffled by the behaviour of this virus. For instance, Switzerland has quite massively opened up the lockdown and many, yours truly included, expected a 2nd wave to start almost immediately. Yet, 3 weeks into the initial lift of lockdown and almost 2 into the 2nd stage we see very low new infections. The heads of the crisis center here are bewildered about this but also quite hopeful, as right now it appears that new infections are really very much in decline and the easing of lockdown measures have had no effect to the contrary.
The big question is why. And they better find an answer because otherwise a lot of ignorants will pipe up and claim all the lockdown was unnecessary in the first place, something which some countries who did wait too long have found out to be very much untrue. The question on how to continue fighting this will also strongly depend on how people will accept the “new normal”, in particularly hygiene which all of us should have known to be a good thing since kindergarten, wash your hands, don´t caugh into other peoples faces, e.t.c. will stay alive once people start to gather again. It may well be that a renewed lockdown at the scale we have seen won´t be necessary at all as long as people know how to keep safe and carry on. That is something I would not have tought possible a while ago, but it appears that the few ignorants have not managed to nullify the effort of the responsible population.
Another bit will be contact tracing and more localized lockdowns if neccessary. Very importantly the initial phase of denial that a problem exists has to be exterminated with all concerned, foremost politicians and so called world leaders, none of which have done their job even in approximation this time.
What’s interesting to me is the number of countries where much fewer people die or get infected at the weekend!
Just like the UK above, there are a lot of countries where the numbers inexplicable drop every weekend and return to normal after the weekend.
Is that not due to generally less work getting done over the weekends by admin?
Otherwise it seems to be the opposite to avoiding any medical work on a Friday afternoon.
172 Driver: “While living in the UK (+/- 20 years) I always considered the NHS pretty much a sub-Sahara African system that kept people alive, but in relatively bad health generally”
That’s a truly vile remark, and shows total ignorance of the UK NHS and a sub-Sahara African “system” however you define it.
Are you going to come up with some information on the state-of-the-art “system” you have in the US?
It seems to become clearer and clearer that the superspreader events are large gatherings where people are close to each other in still air for a prolonged period of time.
So does CAT fit this bill and how about a little debate on this? I know Peter has a very strong opinion 
AFAIK airliners have an air conditioning system that moves the air from above to below in the cabin, and it takes some 3 minutes to move it all. And a large proportion of the air is fresh and not recirculated. And the recirculated air goes through pretty good filters. And the cockpit crew can regulate the ratio between outside air and recirculated air, at the expense of additional fuel use. Well, maybe Mr. O’Leary gives his pilots points for using 100% recirc air or he has personally disabled all Ryanair fresh air intakes but other airlines may be less frugal. Darned, should I buy up the remains of some airline, disable the recirc and call it ‘FreshAir’?
And pax do not face to each other.. And with all pax wearing masks, and no catering and not going to the loo.. Doable, although a bit tough with intercontinental travel.
I have traveled a ton in airlines and don’t recall ever to get sick, but that’s hardly statistics of course.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Very importantly the initial phase of denial that a problem exists has to be exterminated with all concerned, foremost politicians and so called world leaders, none of which have done their job even in approximation this time.
I wonder if we’re also seeing the effect of the lockdown, not so much on separating people, but on their attitudes. I imagine that many more people will be concentrating on keeping their distance from others and hand washing, than otherwise would have been if we’d not have a lockdown. The lockdown makes more people realise the danger and be more cautious.
I have traveled a ton in airlines and don’t recall ever to get sick, but that’s hardly statistics of course.
I also have never been sick after an airline flight.
Is that not due to generally less work getting done over the weekends by admin?
Yes indeed. That was my sarcastic comment. Obviously many health systems don’t operate at 100% over the weekends, even in the middle of a pandemic.
Or no testing on the weekends…
dublinpilot wrote:
Yes indeed. That was my sarcastic comment
My apologies, flew straight over my head.
I think we are learning quite a lot about these kind of things now. Superspreaders are not only a Corona issue but I reckon if some of the lessons learnt from Corona can be applied in general, we also would see a lot less flu cases e.t.c.
So what qualifies? That will be a big subject of research I would think. So what are then known ones so far?
- There was a soccer game in Italy which is blamed for quite a lot of the Italian and Spanish cases. That means, outside but lots of people close together and shouting their lungs out thereby spreading germs
- Then we have the Ischgl bar, which needs no further explanation. Inside, hot, people blowing into whistles of infected waiters. Darwin at work.
- Public transport such as trains and busses with standing room and people doing a good impression of sardines. Darwin yet again.
What else however? Yes, how is CAT contributing? First by what aart describes and 2nd by transporting virus carriers from a to b.
How is all this affected by wearing masks for the protection of others? Is it realistic? I mean, at a soccer game? Or in a disco? And so on.
these are questions which need answers.
