Stand easy troops. Just announced on the BBC that the soap series Casualty and Holby City are donating their PPE props to the NHS to ease the dilemma.
Seriously I have not made that up. Just announced. Anyone seen Captain Mannering………
BeechBaby wrote:
Seriously I have not made that up
Why should they not?
That TV set probably has a whole ward’s worth of PPE. Given there’s a shortage and medical professionals are having to do without, why wouldn’t it be taken and used?
The Olympics in Japan have been postponed so Japan no longer has a really big reason to massage their numbers as has been alleged.
It seems to be more sensible use of them than the BBC.
I at first thought it was that image doing the rounds where is suggests that Dianne Abbot had called for the BBC to stop filming so that the doctors and nurses could help out with the outbreak :)
No more irrelevant politics please
Graham wrote:
Why should they not?
Seriously are you being serious?
.
Spending on the NHS in England. Total health spending in England was around £129 billion in 2018/19 and is expected to rise to nearly £134 billion by 2019/20, taking inflation into account. In 2018/19 around £115 billion was spent on the NHS England budget.
They have little personal protection equipment?? In that budget?
Intersting article on how corona virus tests actually work: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-coronavirus-tests-actually-work/
kwlf wrote:
Probably not, as I fear you’re unpersuadable.EU population is 500 million. Italian population is 60 million.
60/500*12K suggests that Italy’s fair share of EU deaths should be 1.4K. Let’s up that to 2K because of the older population.Over the past 7 days there have been 601 + 653 + 793 + 627 + 427 + 475 + 345 = 3921 deaths attributed to COVID-19, plus however many deaths were due to other causes.
Going back to my post #103 on the study about influenza deaths in Italy, and your answer with the paper’s graph. Italy had 4 to 5 weeks, both in 2014/2015 and 2016/2017 with ~400 deaths per influenza alone.
Taking the revision of death certificates in Italy, leading to ‘only’ 1/10th, 400 deaths directly attributed to Covid-19, we seem to be in same range.
This leaves an excess in mortality, but not entirely attributable to Covid-19.
My hypothesis is that those were colateral of the panic induced chaos. Happy to hear other ideas.
In one side, I want to know more about Italy, On the other hand, my pressing questions are still the ones I asked before:
- Where is the actual hard science to say that lockdowns like this make any difference at all? Where was the experiment done, whit a control group and all that science stuff?
I guess there is no evidence it works, until I hear otherwise :-)
- But my first question is more pressing? Where, outside Italy, are all the excess deaths?
Going back to Sweden with no lockdown in place, with currently 36 deaths, I tried to look for typical mortally:
http://www.healthdata.org/sweden lists “Lower respiratory infect” at 6% of all deaths, 2,9% of “premature deaths” If I’m reading this correctly.
The current death rate for Sweden in 2020 is 9.145 deaths per 1000 people, a 0.22% decline from 2019.
Taking the smaller, 2,9% of all deaths, seem to be 26 000 premature deaths by respiratory infection.
Any other country that we can see excess mortality by respiratory diseases right now?
BeechBaby wrote:
Spending on the NHS in England. Total health spending in England was around £129 billion in 2018/19 and is expected to rise to nearly £134 billion by 2019/20, taking inflation into account. In 2018/19 around £115 billion was spent on the NHS England budget.They have little personal protection equipment?? In that budget?
Nonthing surprising. As everywhere, everything (including the stock of protective equipment) is optimized/right-sized for normal operations, with little reserves for exceptional cases.
BeechBaby wrote:
However we need to understand what we are dealing with in FACT, not graphs, models and whimsical strategy. IMO
If you wait until the hard facts are 100% established, the horse has left the barn and you are left with unmanageable situation.
The reality that is now unfolding is Europe and USA (and elsewhere) is right along the path described by those model you disparage …
The problem is the weak political leaders who are afraid/unable to LEAD, but are left dragged along by the events on ground.
The models clearly show that (due to long lag and huge undetected numbers) when the things get measurably worse, it is already too late to stop the wave.
I see no point discussing here whether the raise of overall mortality is detectable or not – in two weeks time, it will be a moot point. Its the same thinking as those who were saying ‘there are 400 deaths outside China now, what is that compared to flu/traffic accident deaths’. Nobody speaks like that anymore (right now we stand at 15k+ deaths outside China, and still rising sharply).
