@LeSving, the last thing I want in my area of the US is to be independent of natural gas. Regardless of any increase in natural gas prices due to export demand I’m paying 9 cents per kW-hr for gas and 41 cents per kW-hr for electricity. That’s per the statement I received yesterday.
Chamberlain naturally spent the rest of his life justifying his appeasement (there is a great self-serving-BS interview with him in the excellent 1973 World at War series) by saying the UK needed time to build up its military – which is true but irrelevant because the UK would have never withstood Hitler alone, but actually it was Pearl Harbour which did the real work, and it was the Manhattan Project which would have always framed WW2 to end in the summer of 1945.
IOW, the US pulled the burning chestnuts out of the fire for Europe, as usual 
And what we have today is Europe’s subsequent expectation of the continuation of the US burning chestnut removal service, and free of charge
MedEwok wrote:
Compared to other German politicians, Merkel was downright sceptical of Russia,
I think she was just a better actress, well trained in deception. That said, why someone like Schröder (her predecessor) still has German citizenship and has not been tried for treason is beyond me.
Peter wrote:
And what we have today is Europe’s subsequent expectation of the continuation of the US burning chestnut removal service, and free of charge
That’s indeed one of the major problems of our continent. And Putin was well aware of that expectation but also of the US strategic pivot to Asia and the Republicans being more inclined to isolationism after Trump.
Thus he – in a way understandably – expected to face little resistance from the west in his Imperial endeavour.
Without a joint Euroean Army of similar size and capability as the US Army, we will always face this Dilemma again once any old autocrat wants their time in the limelight…
A “European army” would never work though.
Each country operates its military in support of its foreign policy, and the countries in Europe are mostly very different.
Putin was well aware of that expectation but also of the US strategic pivot to Asia and the Republicans being more inclined to isolationism after Trump.
What Putin was and is aware of is the predictably weak and ineffectual Federal executive branch leadership in the US starting in 2021, which was completely obviously why he waited until that time to invade. It was no coincidence.
He took a little break between 2014 and 2021 for the same reason, fear of an unpredictable and forceful US response during that period. Also perfectly obvious.
Germany’s role other than its part in overall EU military weakness was in making itself weak in terms of energy security, and living in a fantasy world in regard to the consequences of relying on Russian energy ‘in the short term’. This was just nonsense, and the solution will be some combination of more diverse energy supply, lower living standards in Germany plus reduced population. Reduction in population, balancing to available resources is critical unless people want their children to live more unpleasant lives than they did. Improved and increased LNG shipment to Europe would also help.
What Putin was and is aware of is the predictably weak and ineffectual Federal executive branch leadership in the US starting in 2021, which was completely obviously why he waited until that time to invade. It was no coincidence.
The US under Biden has reacted pretty forcefully, no? I would think that Trump may not have. So yet another miscalculation by Putin.
We have no idea at all how Trump might have reacted. He was quite fond of Putin, but really too unpredictable to know.
Putin might now have wanted to gamble on how Trump may have reacted, but it remains an open question because I doubt anybody else knows either
The US under Biden has reacted pretty forcefully, no? I would think that Trump may not have. So yet another miscalculation by Putin.
I think the opposite, although I would agree with Peter that we will never know for sure. I would disagree that anybody, ever in any US administration was or is ‘fond’ of Putin. But some have been more competent at dealing with immoral foreign despots than others.
I think the only thing that would have given Putin pause for thought in that regard is the Biden’s history of enriching themselves via influence peddling in the Ukraine but I imagine Putin would see that as normal behavior, with no long term loyalty purchased.
If it could be proven, I would bet a large sum of money that Putin would never have invaded in 2021 if he didn’t see the current US Federal Executive branch as laughably naive and inept.
Silvaire wrote:
I would bet a large sum of money that Putin would never have invaded in 2021 if he didn’t see the current US Federal Executive branch as laughably naive and inept.
I don’t think Putin could care less who is at office in the USA. He knows that no one would attack Russia, and he simply miscalculated badly (or have been severely misinformed) about the reactions of the Ukrainians in particular, and also NATO.
