Having had my VW eUp (all electric vehicle) close to a year now, there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever about where the future will go. Current battery technology is good enough to power a car for 99% of the use on average, even if the range is only 150-200 km. The range is incrementally increasing every year, and fast chargers are popping up everywhere, making it possible to go anywhere. It’s really just a matter of time before the whole car concept will revolve. 5-10 years from now, most new cars will be EV in Europe. The statistics for cars sold in Norway so far this year, show that 21% of all new cars are either all electric or chargeable hybrids (17% el and 4% hybrid), and it’s increasing every day. Electric cars are very favorable in Norway, due to low taxes because taxation is done on an emission basis and because the price for electricity is very low compared with European standard.
Another major factor for aircraft in particular is reliability. An electric engine/battery system is many times more reliable than a combustion engine. Solid state electronic, one single movable part. The electric engine itself has close to 100% reliability. With a hybrid concept, redundancy is implicitly included also, even with a “single” engine.
A battery breakthrough isn’t really needed I have come to realize. As with electric cars, the reluctance in any given person is 100% in the head, and has very little to do with the reality or practicalities. A breakthrough in battery technology would of course be very welcome, but the technology is steadily improving anyway. A transformation electricity in transportation is inevitable.
