Here are some US sales figures and points from a Beech broker. Now notice, Beech products have a huge following and a solid reputation for quality and good product support, so the numbers for anything else (except maybe Cessna or Piper) is going to be even worse than this. It is sobering reading for a seller and veritable bonanza for any buyer. There has never been a better time to buy an aircraft, it seems. And never a worse time to sell one.
Sale price compared to book – With one exception, the aircraft that I have acquired for clients over the past 2 years have all sold for less than book retail as defined by the Aircraft Bluebook. As a generalization, the average sale price of the aircraft I’ve acquired has been at book wholesale plus 25% of the difference between book wholesale and book retail, again based on the Aircraft Blue Book.
Disparity between Ask and Sale price – In the last 24 months I have purchased 16 aircraft for clients, all of them Beech except one. The difference between the asking price and the actual sale price has ranged from between 24% and 40% less than the asking price with the average sale price 30% less than asking price. Don’t be afraid to offer a price that might seem low.
Days On Market – Using data from 2010 through 2016 from Aircraft Dealer Network, the average Days On Market (DOM) for a Bonanza should be about 6 months (173 days) but if your aircraft is not priced appropriately, you can expect that number to increase, in some cases to 3 years or more. If you’re not getting calls on your airplane, make sure that it’s priced to fit the market.
What’s Selling – The airplanes that have remained on the market for the least amount of time are well kept, no excuses airplanes that are priced fairly. “One off” flawless aircraft are still garnering premium dollars and we recently acquired a 1979 “everything new” V35B for a client at $200K. If you are looking at an average airplane with an engine above 1,200 hours SMOH, sellers plan on a deep discount if you want to get the market’s attention and buyers consider the value of the airplane after an engine overhaul before you make an offer.
Ask Price – When it comes to the asking price for your airplane, consult with your broker and engage his or her expertise. If you have a highly unusual airplane for sale (all glass panel, fresh or low time engine, exceptional paint, interior and mods) I can almost guarantee that the airplane will sell above book retail because these airplanes are not “book” airplanes and are almost impossible to find. On the other hand, if your broker suggests a ask price on your airplane that is less than you expected, don’t be offended. They are only trying to give you their best estimate of what they believe the airplane should sell for in the current market.
Waiting For the Market Turnaround – Over past 2 years, I have had a few potential sellers tell me that they were offended by what they considered a “lowball offer” for their airplane, despite the fact that the offer was backed by hard data. Some have gone on to say, “If this is the best I can do, I’ll just wait for the ‘market to turn around’.” Well, here is the reality of the GA market as it stands today based on numbers from the FAA and from General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA):
• US private pilot certificates issued – 1978 to 2015 – down 72%
• Active US pilot population – 1980 to 2016 – down 29%
• Active US private pilots – 1980 to 2016 – down 55%
• Active US piston aircraft – 1996 to 2015 – down 8%
• Piston aircraft hours flown – 1980 to 2015 – down 63%
• Hours flown per aircraft – 2000 to 2015 – down 30%
• Piston aircraft fuel consumption – 2000 to 2015 – down 46%
• Average age of the US pilot – 1993 to 2016 – Up 9%
• Average age of US piston aircraft – 2007 to 2015 – 22%
If you are looking to put your airplane up for sale, price it based on fact and not on emotion. What you paid for it, what you have in it and what you’ve done to maintain it has little, if anything, to do with what the airplane is actually worth. A good and reputable broker will tell you the same and it will behoove you to heed their sage advice lest your sales transaction languish and your experience fall short of your expectations.
Sobering reading. The good news is I can get my Avanti eventually for about 30% less than I thought!! 
I’m certain there are a lot of used plane bargains out there, its a great time to buy a plane, but equally certain that any broker is motivated to encourage sellers to discount their plane, sell the plane fast, and collect his commission fast.
AdamFrisch wrote:
Sobering reading. The good news is I can get my Avanti eventually for about 30% less than I thought!!
Way to go, Adam, way to go !!
I guess it is a pretty good estimate of todays condtions. Which suggests also that blue book is not really a reference anymore if it is up to 40% off the market price.
Most of us who have planes will have to live with the fact that they will fetch next to nothing compared to what they should fetch in a healthy marketplace. I’ve had an estimate done on my plane a year ago and got a figure which I felt reasonable. When things turned sour for me in fall I advertized it for slightly above that estimate in order to have space to go lower but did only get 4 calls altogether. 2 were brokers who wanted to market the plane for me and found the asking price “ok” knowing that it might sell for maximum half of that, but that was normal in Europe today…. The other two suggested offers in the 15-20 k Euros which is below the hardware value of the avionic alone, let alone the 200 hr since overhaul O360. That is for a fly-away CAMO maintained IFR LPV capable 140 kt airplane.
Fact is, the market is sick to the core and the broker Adam quotes is probably right with his assumption that there will not be a turn of it but it will continue to go worse until most but the latest model airplanes regardless of capability or condition will become next to worthless. This is great for buyers who can now pick up planes who were in 6 figures often for low 10s and 20s but it also shows the buyers that investing anything at all out of what needs to be done is a waste of money. Probably that is why most planes are on planecheck forever or until the sellers give up or simply give it away.
promoting ownership in an atmosphere like this is no fun.
Interesting reg the Blue Book which has been quoted here before as proof for " fair market vakue".
Similar stories exist for many emotional assets.
Buyers dont want to pay for memories.
But evaluate risks of old equipment.
Good post Adam.
For as many years as I have been flying (18) most planes have sold about 20-30% below book. The dealers refuse to be open about this because they say, correctly, that the whole market would mark itself down 20-30%, and then buyers would be looking to pay another 20-30% below that 
What the current depreciation rate means is that you need to buy the right plane for your mission profile and keep it for a long time. And money on it during the ownership is not going to be recovered. Changing is going to be expensive. Does this remind you (guys) of something else?
In 1987 I bought a wonderful Toyota Celica (the one with the popup headlamps) for £18k and sold it 15 years later for £500 (sold it due to some expensive to fix rust appearing). Planes are not as extreme as that (due to heavy maintenance costs as you go along the years) but to regard them as investments (i.e. something near holding the original value) has always seemed totally nuts to me.
Let’s face it – almost everything else we buy in our life depreciates like hell. A bike, a kettle, a microwave oven…
Same history with boats.
And there you do not have the risk of an expensive AD because sone guy somewhere in the world has had a problem after decades of use…
Does anyone know how blue book values (for example AOPA VREF) are determined if they are always too high?
Re seeing aircraft as investments, from about 1960 to maybe 2005 in the US, you could count on 3-5% per year appreciation for many types. The same is still true today, but for a much more limited number of types. The best are probably RVs, Supercubs, C180/185s and the worst are complex 1950s and 60s retractables loaded with older avionics. I don’t think anybody should buy a plane as an investment, particularly in Europe, but I think there are plenty of types where you won’t see a lot of depreciation in US market values over the next 10 years.
I’ve spent little money on depreciating goods over the last 20 years, except for new cars – which are a constant although relatively modest drain on my income.
The Cessna 185 may have been the closest to an investment in the last decade outside of buying surplus P51s in the 1960’s.
Here is an early VFR one with the 470-S engine (basically the injected version of the 182 470). You can find mint restored ones with the IO-550 engine for $250-350k, and ten years ago they were around for $80k.
The Super Cub has also been a good retainer of value.
Both types are still earning money for commercial operators in Alaska, which may underpin their value.
Even the venerable 195 has appreciated despite its requirement for very well maintained brakes and tailwheel and good tailwheel skills.
PC12’s are another type that keeps its value very well (but I suspect it won’t last much longer as they get longer in the tooth).
Yes, as an aircraft owner it’s depressing that if you want to upgrade, you’d have to give what you own away most likely. I had to do this with the Aerostar. Then again, the upside is you can lowball the new one and get it. The best deal, as the old adage goes, is to buy your last plane first – and never sell it! That’s about the only way to save money in aviation…
So it’s never been a better time to get IN to aviation, and never a WORSE time to get out it…
