Robert is that the actual statistic?
My back of the fag packet calculations are way higher than that. I do actually have 10 years of data available but I’ve never looked at that from that point of view.
I do know the end game of students that do get hired as airline pilots is over 99 percent.
I suggest it is a real world estimate. Very few students complete in minimum hours modular training, and then go straight into an airline job. Most will err on the safe side to ensure first time passes, hence running over a few hours on the advanced training. Recall Peter was asking why taking the IR first.
The 99% number seems odd – does this count holding pools as an airline job placement? and does it take into account students that wash out? The failure to pass ATPL exams, and get first series passes at CPL and IR must be more than 1%.
I expect that more than 1% of students fail in the type rating/line training stage.
At the end of the day the frozen ATPL is only a reasonable indicator that the candidate has a good chance of completing the type rating, and line training, to standard.
Thanks for the useful input.
Flying just for fun, means that I have no intention to go for CPL or even ATPL 
@jujupilote: I understand your point but I see the EIR as a first step towards CBIR. Seems that none of the 3 schools I have contacted in Belgium do (or are willing to) start CBIR ab initio…
I understand that the BIR is not for tomorrow (when you know that for EIR/CBIR theoritecal exams I will have to France or the Netherlands as it is not yet implemented in Belgium…) and that starting with EIR followed by CBIR is the easiest way to get IR.
Feel free to correct me if I missed a point.
jfw wrote:
Seems that none of the 3 schools I have contacted in Belgium do (or are willing to) start CBIR ab initio…
What does that mean? They want to train you for the EIR first? I am confused. Once you meet the EIR standards, isn’t it just a matter of pressing on to meet the full (CB-)IR training requirement?
One thing that I have not understood is whether once you have the EIR, you can obtain full IR privileges just by doing a few hours additional training and pass the skill test, or whether you need to redo the TK exam if it has been too long since you got it for the EIR.
Aviathor wrote:
They want to train you for the EIR first?
Excatly. First get EIR then do CBIR (few extra hours and again exam).
One school even answered with a quote:
EASA Part-FCL : “The aim of the competency-based modular flying training course is to train PPL or CPL holders for the instrument rating, taking into account prior instrument flight instruction and experience.”
Regarding the theoretical exam , as you have the EIR and that the theory/exam is the same for CBIR, you just have to do some extra hours and skill test
…at least that’s my understanding….
One school even answered with a quote:
Makes you wonder if they are that ignorant or deliberately trying to mislead you. Of course if you don’t have prior experience, nothing can be taken into account, but it is all detailed in PART FCL what prior experience can be credited in which way. If you read that, it is absolutely clear that all of this is optional and the standard case is still that someone has no initial instrument flying experience (like it was in my case when I did the CBIR).
Still, do you want to go to a school that isn’t capable of reading a text further than its title? They read “competence based” and then by prejudice and ignorance just assume that you need to have some prior experience for this?
You don’t have to redo any theory when you go from EIR to CBIR later, even after many years. But still, I wouldn’t have wanted do an EIR only.
Sorry jfw, I missed your point.
Doing the CBIR after the EIR is beneficial if you can train on your own with a safety pilot. Doing this way can make you save 5 hours of dual instruction IIRC, IF you make enough progress on your own before taking CBIR training.
I would still do CBIR directly to only need one flight test, but I understand your schools don’t want to.
It depends if you rent or own planes but I would consider a full time course in an FTO that understands your need, instead of a misleading school nearby. Check out IAF in Brest LFBR (IMC guaranteed :)), it is said to be friendly and efficient. One of their students has a blog and did a CBIR in 15 days. They also train on owner’s airplane.
One school even answered with a quote:
That is plain BS. For the CB-IR prior experience may to a certain extent be credited towards the training requirements, but if you have no prior experience you have to meet the minimum l requirements in terms of practical training. If you hold a third-party IR and 50 hrs as PIC under IFR, you do not even require any training at all in which case the only thing you need to do is to book an examiner for a skill test.
It is bullshit, of course. You can start a CBIR course after 50hrs logged as PIC, and you need a communication certificate with level 4 and a night rating if you want to fly IR at night. Theory is the same for EIR and CBIR, so once you’ve got the theory you will fly the missions (or you do it somehow parallel). And once you’ve got 15hrs with the respective EIR content, which is mostly holding and intercept procedures, you can pass a test and you’ve got the EIR. Then, you can continue with the other 30hrs (or more) until passing the CBIR test. EIR is a nothingburger, IMO, because what’s the benefit of flying IR when you’re not allowed to depart/land under IR conditions.
Honestly, EIR should be part of the PPL. That would eliminate most of the “180 seconds to live” accidents.
