I agree; I am sure China could manufacture a “relatively uncertified” simple VFR-only product e.g. this
or an electric version, for peanuts. Half the stuff exhibited at Friedrichshafen they could make, well, and for peanuts, if the volume was there and the price/demand was reasonably elastic.
But that’s a different market to an “IFR tourer” which is what the Chinese TB20 is presumably supposed to be, and would be if sold in the West. Let’s face it – “VFR” versions of IFR planes have done very poorly (e.g. SR20 VFR). It may be that their Plan B is to end up supplying 3rd World pilot training schools with a non ICAO CofA trainer and that could well keep them going; who knows…
But I am pretty certain that if you halved the price of an SR22 for example, or more to the point produced a TB20 lookalike for 200k (the 2002 price, and working on the assumption that today’s price of a Socata TB20 restart would be say 400k), you would not double the previous sales – because of all the other factors such as how much dedication is required on the part of the pilot over a long time to collect all the paperwork, etc.
What this means is that the obvious route to reducing manufacturing costs – increasing the volume – is not available to you.
So all you can do is chip off lots of bits around the edges of the existing costs. Walk around a TB20 with a notepad and start writing down what could be done cheaper and how… it’s a fun exercise. On each point, ask yourself what could benefit from cheaper direct labour, assuming you take the most obvious steps of tooling up the obvious bits. It’s an exercise I have done hundreds of times since c. 1975.
Like I said, the way to demolish the cost is to make the engine and the avionics in China, but that is a whole different exercise. And the volume won’t be there…
By an large, Chinese manufacturing doesn’t work well for low volumes. They are very good at making very consistent well QA-controlled (I mean the quality is to the spec; it doesn’t necessarily mean high quality… just like IS9000 
) stuff in decent volume. In electronics it is a few k minimum. My son buys machined parts from China and again a few k is the min batch size (CNC milling etc). I have never seen a successful operation which had a batch size of say 100 made in China. The management overhead is too big, for a start.
What nobody here takes into account:
Cirrus Aircraft (one example) is owned by Aviation Industry Corporation of China, which is owned by the Government of the People’s Republic of China.
Irrelevant. China could buy almost any company they want.
It is not irrelevant at all. It means that China produces the best selling light GA airplane. There is a non-binding (!) agreement that the Chinese will leave these (jobs (jobs, jobs ;-)) in the USA … but the technology transfer has certainly happened, and if they want to build it in China – they will
Or what do you think WHY the Chinese government is buying companies like Cirrus, or Mooney? Because of sentimental reasons?
China produces the best selling light GA airplane.
Last I checked, America was not in China. Even if China bought all of America, America will still not be in China.
what do you think WHY the Chinese government is buying companies like Cirrus, or Mooney? Because of sentimental reasons?
Mooney probably so. Cirrus, in case the GA market opens up. They can afford the bet.
This TB20 project was IMHO done for the “3rd World trainer Plan B” market. They are not stupid; they could see the barriers to entry to the West. 14 years later…?
Check again. It does not matter where the factory is located. Fact is, and that’s what counts, is that they OWN all these companies and that the technology transfer has happened. And this is only the foreplay.
Cirrus is a CHINESE company that builds airplanes in the USA and has not given a guarantee (in writing) that it will not move the whole production to China – or simply build another one in China. Nobody could prevent that from happenig.
Cirrus, in case the GA market opens up. They can afford the bet.
Exactly, and then the next thing they will do is move the production to China.
OK Alexis, I give up. But do a mental exercise. See if you can build the Unimog trucks you sell, in China in small batches. With a Chinese made G1000 in the dash. Certified.
Of course it could be done, and I have been talking with the General Manager of the Mercedes Truck Sales divison about the possibility lately, that the Chinese could do that. “Bejjing Benz” is producing Mercedes E-class models since 2006.
The Chinese build Airlines Jets, plan a mission to the moon and their own space station and the biggest mistake we all make is to underestimate them. And it is not me who made that up.
Tell me: What is the difference between the Chinese owning Cirrus Aircraft or designing their own “SR22” version? If they want to build it in China they will offer 50 Americans good Jobs, build the factory (in 6 months) and produce it.
PS: There will a Mercedes truck factory in China before the end of t he decade.
According to an acquaintance of mine who has been living and working in Guangzhou for the last 15 years or so, it is perfectly feasible to organise high-quality production in China even in small batches, but the “cheap labour” would be anything but cheap, especially now that most employees expect not only a salary 3-4 times what it was 15 years ago, but also rent assistance, free public transport passes, etc. Also, it takes more effort to find suitable personnel than in Europe. In one of his projects, he had to interview over 300 candidates before finding a suitable one for a position of production engineer. According to him, the most direly lacking trait among Chinese candidates is perfectionism.
All that said, I would not be surprised if the quality culture improves to a very reasonable level within, say, 10 years. An upward trend is already noticeable. The question is only whether any cost advantage will remain by that time.
Ultranomad wrote:
All that said, I would not be surprised if the quality culture improves to a very reasonable level within, say, 10 years. An upward trend is already noticeable. The question is only whether any cost advantage will remain by that time.
Quite right Ultranomad. I think the standard of living has to constantly improve for the Chinese people or there will be political uproar. Their particular mix of communism and capitalism works only as long as the lack of political freedom can be offset with higher standards of living. That means higher wages and better working conditions, which in turn means higher prices.
