Likelihood is the word indeed. In case of a RNP AR approach, which means between high mountains, any MCAS failure occurence followed by a pitch down – even if it may only happen once with the fixed implementation, may finish in a cfit.
greg_mp wrote:
In case of a RNP AR approach, which means between high mountains
High mountains are not the only reason for strict and/or unusual track guidance on approaches.. The RNP AR approaches around here (Stockholm/Arlanda) are intended for noise abatement and have curved finals. No obstacle issues whatsoever.