Going back to the number in #571 and the stats here (new stats avalable btw).
We don’t know how long it takes for MOR to end up with ICG but I think 3 month is a reasonable assumption considering the various tracking, letters, ….
So the 23+3 GASCO courses + suspensions need to be read in relation the February MOR (or even January if one wants to make the figures look bad)
So we have 26/78=33% (Feb) or 26/64=41% (Jan) So not at great odd with Timothy numbers.
If we consider only CAS (TMA, CTA and CTR) where it should be easy to track infringers, we get
26/67=39% (Feb) or 26/52=50%. So saying that most CAS infringements end up in a GASCO course is not true.(well just on the cusp we use January MOR numbers)
Xtope
I think what is said is it isnt known how the selection is made, but it may be only from proven infringements where the infringer can be traced, of which attendance then becomes highly likely.
As ever, the risk is the stats are massaged to suggest a result that isnt true.
It seems a new forum occupation is to nail me down on the alleged implication of “all” versus a more likely “most” 
Looking at the new numbers
we see a dramatic rise in May, which looks set to make 2019 an all time record for busts. Now stand back a bit. How can this be real? GA activity in the UK is going down all the time. It’s been going down for decades. EuroGA has loads of threads with numbers on the decline in Europe (the UK publishes them regularly, if indirectly via e.g. license issues). Go to your local and see how dead it is compared to 10 or 20 years ago. Every metric indicates a decline. And lots more people are using GPS instead of following roads etc.
So, somebody is inflating the UK numbers, prob99 by having implemented a well lubricated reporting system e.g.
Then throw in human nature. Everybody working in the system will want the numbers to be rising, to create work. This is normal in any occupation. If you get a job in a chocolate factory, checking the thickness of the paper wrappers is within tolerance, then you will be really happy to see a lot of them out of spec because it means you can sit at the next management meeting and feel really important.
I think they are missing a trick though. These numbers are way too low. They need to improve reporting!
I am sure they can get these up to 100/month if they assign the task to the military radar units. They need the practice, in case the USSR invades.
Seasonality?
Well, its all kicking off else where.
To be fair, for those interested, a really useful comment by a GASCo trustee, that is forthright, revealing and not tainted with the usual contempt. How refreshing.
Unfortunately, from another, an equally dismissive comment, that would make you want to give up.
Well worth a read.
I wouldn’t bother.
The way it looks to me, reading that stuff, is the ignorant leading the blind.
The corporate/police attitude “an infringement is an infringement; all are equally serious” which is totally dumb risk management but great for job creation in the “right” departments.
The ignorant attitude “this cannot be happening; this is all just some people having a moan”.
The military / ex-military “good pilots never infringe”. Those who do should face the music and take it on the chin. Patronising crap.
A total disbelief that the UK is the only place adding 5000ft. Some say it is 3000ft in some places in the UK. Gasco is then badly informed
Then the Gasco trustees posting under nicknames, along the lines of “we got this job from the CAA”.
All know that the CAA is watching that forum
Gasco were in the right place at the right time. They have always run the “safety evenings” (which under David Cockburn, RAF (Ret’d), used to be tiresome beyond description, with the dreaded 3-letter word starting with a G triggering a load of hissing and rubbernecking in the audience which would then queue up to have their logbooks stamped to certify true allegiance to the church) and was always really close to the CAA (for example their magazine would automatically be mailed to everybody on G-INFO and there was no way to stop what many regarded as junk mail*) and with the right connections (an Air Commodore as the then chairman, it is just an absolutely perfect fit, with the whole old boys’ network popping into all the right dining establishments).
Actually I very much doubt there is any significant difference between the UK and the rest of Europe in CAS busts and the reasons for them. Sure there are differences in GA activity, ATC practices, general culture, etc, but I can’t see why the human factors should be different.
In the UK, a decision was made “somewhere” (my guess is within the CAA, in coordination with NATS) to change to strict enforcement, with a hammer. I don’t have any meaningful info on the reasons for this but it could have been triggered by the difficult politics in the CAA following the Hunter display crash; this kicked up the most massive stink in there and prob99 triggered a re-evaluation of everything to do with “safety”. The acquittal of the pilot (he did have an excellent legal team, but the CAA also tried to nail him for a charge which with hindsight was not sustainable) made things even worse. In such a climate where the Chief Exec at the time is under a lot of pressure, all you need is the guy in charge of infringements to try to look good before the Chief Executive and the result is what we have. However it could be from an entirely different origin…
* I still remember one famous article detailing how to stop mice running up the tailwheel and eating the upholstery – you put the tailwheel in a bucket
Actually, for a change there are a fair few not towing the party line, and a few cracks appearing, because I think pilots are getting a grip that this is an important issue that shouldnt simply be dismissed under the usual heading of “we know best, leave it to us”.
The trouble is the usual tactics of beat them up, stiffle mature debate, has always worked in the past (or nearly always), and it is very easy to give in and give up.
I know this is very much rightly a Europe wide forum, but for one moment stay UK, I was several places today and made a point of asking the question where is GA. Peter’s right, number are down, and I mean really down, and there are loads of reason why that should be so, but as yet another little piece in the jigsaw, when they all come together, it adds up to the head, and point of a nail in a coffin that will result in more pilots giving up. What a shame.
For that reason I think the fuss is worth while.
I’m going to put my tailwheel in a bucket :-)
Peter wrote:
One question list on type of GPS (on which we voted) itemised a “panel GPS” and a “moving map GPS” as different items!
Actually, those two are not necessarily the same. I started my IR training in C150 with panel mounted GPS which didn’t have any kind of map. IIRC you could dial in waypoint and then it had something like CDI which one was supposed to use to fly correct track.
BTW this is obviously hot topic in UK since it triggered incredible number of posts in this thread (558 up to now) while it seems that it doesn’t catch much attention of pilots outside UK.
Yeah, something like this:
I did my PPL on planes equipped with these… Until it all got replaced by GTN650s for the 8.33kHz channel spacing upgrade.
