Whenever data appears that doesn’t fit the narrative, there is a lot of blab. I prefer looking at the data independently.
Silvaire wrote:
I prefer looking at the data independently.
Unfortunately most people are not in the great situation in that you obviously are that they have a solide education in physics, meteorology, atmospheric science, etc. that is required to not only look but also make sense of such data independently.
Let’s face it: Most people (even most of the people passionately discussing about it) can’t even explain what that “global mean temperature” actually is and how it is measured/calculated. They don’t have a clue how long it takes until greenhouse gas gets into which parts of the world (and which parts of the atmosphere) and what ist does there.
Unfortunately too many people do not even know the difference between correlation and causation and therefor would actually believe (by looking at the data independently) that margarine consumption leads to divorce ;-)
I’m not so concerned with margarine. I do think it’s interesting that an unprecedented shutdown of man-made CO2 production for months on end has had no measurable effect on data trends established over many years in Hawaii, a location that produces data in which regional differences are mitigated but which still highlights a repeated cycle from month to month, every year. What the data shows (factually) is that an unprecedented global shutdown in man-made CO2 production for months on end would has had no effect at all on that monthly trend, and I think that’s more interesting to me than blowing smoke in relation to the validity of real, measured data.
What do you think is going to happen to the trend of this data over the next six months? I’ll be checking it to see.
Hawaii is probably the worst possible location to measure any short-term change in CO2 emissions. It’s thousands of miles away from major populations centers and has significant volcanic activity, therefore a constant ‘background’ of CO2 emissions.
Why do you think the annual cycle varies as it does so consistently, year after year? Do volcanos operate on a calendar basis?
Do you think that CO2 distribution across the globe does not in any measurable way equilibrate over several months? If so how long will it take for the large, unprecedented reduction in man-made CO2 production in e.g. China and the US to show up in any way in this data? If you wanted to assess average global CO2 levels what location would you pick, and in what period would you expect to see a global change in man-made production show up in that data? What happened in 2018 that isn’t happening in 2020?
I did some googling to see how much co2 varies around the earth. Hard to find good data but it seems “not very much”. One explanation is here – there are higher concentrations above industrial areas but high altitude winds pick it up and spread it all around.
There may be some quantitative data coming out of this but I don’t have all night 
Jujupilote wrote:
- no more internal CAT in france
It’s gonna get awfully quiet in Corsica I suppose if you need to take the boat there?
Also no commercial private jets can travel e.g. from Paris to Nice or Cannes?
What about the overseas territories? Theoretically these are also internal flights but I suppose they thought that much?
Jujupilote wrote:
- raising the taxes on Avgas of 23 cents/liter.
It will become quite interesting then to go fuel abroad. Even though I think the 23 cents a liter might just about bring French Avgas prices to where everyone else is.
If this is the outcome for aviation I shudder what the rest will be. I suppose also car owners are going to get fleeced something fierce.
There is some detail involved, according to the internet
The proposal says something about flights being banned if there is a train available which takes < 2.5hrs, for example.
Some govt rescue package of Air France is wrapped up in it…
Bizjets will never be banned because the bourgeoisie uses them all the time. Only the ploretariat will ever be affected
The minimum time of 2.5h is the one set for now from the government. The citizen council sets a 4h train time as the limit.
Of course, corsica will be exempted :) and BA probably too, but taxed.
Silvaire wrote:
What the data shows (factually) is that an unprecedented global shutdown in man-made CO2 production for months on end would has had no effect at all on that monthly trend,
Sorry, that is complete BS! What the data shows (factually for those who know what facts are), that an unprecedented reduction of carbon emission has little measurable effect in a location 2500 miles away from the nearest sizable carbon production within a timeframe of 2 months. Not more!
Claiming that it has no effect at all is like swallowing a pound if ricin and pretending an hour later, that ricin is obviously (“Factually!”) not poisonous as you did not die from it yet.
That is exactly what I meant: Looking on a graph that one hardly understands and claiming something one always believed as it seems plausible is the opposite of science and the opposite of “looking at data independently”. The only way of making sense of that data is first to answer the question: “which reduction of carbon concentration would I expect in Hawaii if entire continental US shuts down all carbon emission for a month” – and I mean answer that question and not guessing something like “there should not be any carbon in Hawaii in that case”. Then you can compare this prediction to the data.
Or start with a much easier question: If you emit 1 kg of CO2 in LA today – and let’s assume you could mark and follow every single molecule of it – how much of it would you expect to show up over Hawaii at which point in time?
But to answer one of your questions:
If so how long will it take for the large, unprecedented reduction in man-made CO2 production in e.g. China and the US to show up in any way in this data?
These times of the year the Hawaiian islands are typically clearly south of the Jetstream so there is little to no global circulation that reaches the islands. In addition, even if it is touched by the Jetstream, the flow (from the east) is typically traveling 5000+ miles over water before it reaches the islands. during this time, there has been lots of vertical exchange, so that a significant part of the Chinese CO2 would have distributed along upper parts of the athmosphere.
Therefore I would expect the effect only visible on the timescale of 1-5 years and obviously only if the reduction in emission is maintained over such a timeframe.
On a few month timeframe and measured close to the surface one would expect no effect from global CO2 emission reductions but only from changes in very local emissions. E.g. if the Hawaiians would shut down all of their air conditioning one would expect an effect in the timeframe of weeks. Did they?
Btw: This AC and local emission effect is also quite a good explanation for the seasonal cyclicality one can clearly see in the data…
