Silvaire wrote:
On the other hand it’s interesting to see how it takes so very little to trigger the reemergence of simmering dislike of neighboring countries, totalitarian mindset etc in Europe.
I’m not sure where you’re seeing that? What’s being suggested is that the problem is confined into areas that are under one governmental control. That way you can see if your plans are working or not, and tailor your approach appropriately without ‘leaking the problem’.
Was it not just a day or two ago that I ready here that other EU countries were taking Italian patients by airlift to help them in neighbouring countries that had spare capacity?
Did I not read a day or two ago that Germany was preparing to take patients from the UK even thought they’ve just left the EU with somewhat of a sour note? I appreciate that Peter says that’s unlikely to be needed, but the fact that they are actively preparing on the ground to do so, sounds to me anything but a simmering dislike of neighbouring countries, and rather more like setting your differences aside to help a neighbour through a crises. A neighbour who might indeed be considered an old enemy.
dublinpilot wrote:
I’m not sure where you’re seeing that?
Unfortunately – all over Facebook. Having lived in several European countries and speaking five languages I am ‘friends’ (real or FB) with people all over the continent. I am saddened by the outbreak of jingoistic sentiment, even from people I would have considered immune to it. Crises like the one we are living through bring out the best, but, alas, also the worst in humans.
Peter wrote:
Is there antibody test data supporting 15%?
In relation to antibody tests, from here:
Researchers in Shanghai hope to determine whether some recovered coronavirus patients have a higher risk of reinfection after finding surprisingly low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in a number of people discharged from hospital.
A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.
In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.
“Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers.
Although the study was preliminary and not peer-reviewed, it was the world’s first systematic examination of antibody levels in patients who had recovered from Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, the researchers said.
Rwy20 wrote:
That site has gems like this: “According to all findings to date, Covid-19 is no more dangerous than previous influenza epidemics.”Please present your evidence (data) to the contrary then.
Don’t forget that influenza is quite deadly and a real flu (not a little cold) is quite a serious illness.
I grant you that Covid-19 is no more dangerous than the 1918 Spanish flu.
That is not implied by those espousing “Covid-19 is no more dangerous than previous influenza epidemics”, what is implied is that it is just the same as normal flu seasons, which are essentially ignored.
At that is simply not the case. In normal flu seasons, the hospitals are not overwhelmed the way they are now in regions where they did not stop it in time by lockdown measures (Lombardy, Madrid, New York). See also the report I linked yesterday where from the overall mortality data in Italy in the first three weeks of March (as compared to 2019) they deduce that overall excess mortality is 2.5x the official reported deaths from Covid-19 (on top of the seasonal flu signal).
peter wrote: Is there antibody test data supporting 15%?
Rwy20 wrote: No, that is the percentage of positive test results in Switzerland.
Have it crossed your mind that the tests are not random, but targeted at people most likely (exhibit symptoms, known contacts with confirmed cases) to test positive?
Unless you randomly test a lot of general population, you have no way to know the true infection rate.
Rwy20 wrote:
but people’s lives are being destroyed with every day of global lockdown and we will all be paying for this for decades to come.
And among those who always find reasons that this is not as serious and argue that the response is overblown, the economic argument is somehow always at the root. How serious it is is determined by the biology, not the economy. Bringing economy just points at your focus and bias (that you want it to not be as serious).
If you have not noticed, the only countries that pay relatively little economic costs are the countries that took it very seriously from the beginning (Taiwan, South Korea, for the n-th time). The countries that tried to “save the economy” and go for as long as possible as normal as possible are paying the heaviest price, both in lives, and economically. Even Sweden is reconsidering their approach now (compare their numbers with Norway – both started about the same, but diverged in their handling).
And, frankly, its not the ones on the bottom who are screaming loudest for the economy restart, but the ones on top whose investment portfolios are hurting.
Yes, we will be paying in decades for this, also (and perhaps more importantly) because many things will work differently (and less optimized) than now.
Rwy20 wrote:
Don’t forget that influenza is quite deadly and a real flu (not a little cold) is quite a serious illness.
I think you are missing the point. The reason people compare it with influenza is only an excuse to treat it like influenza, which is to do nothing. Influenza does not rip your lungs apart in a matter of days. It’s nothing like influenza. By far the cheapest and fastest way to deal with it is to apply measures (social isolation etc) as fast as possible. Waiting (pretend this is influenza and it will go away by itself, or believe in fairy tales of herd immunity), is the most costly, takes most time and kills most people. That is the current experience with this virus.
Both Denmark and Norway got this virus about 3 weeks after Italy, or about the same time as the UK. After Easter, we are opening up again (schools, kindergarten, hair dressers and so on are starting to go back to “normal”). Total “lock down”, 5 weeks, and the “lock down” has not been anything like the draconian measures elsewhere in Europe (France, Italy, Spain to mention a few). Then we have Korea and Japan which have managed to make this almost a non issue in a miracle like fashion.
I think the discussions about dealing with this virus as we deal with influenza is firmly dead and buried by now.
esteban wrote:
Even Sweden is reconsidering their approach now
We are? I am following the government’s daily press conferences and I have heard no such thing.
In fact, the number of daily ICU admissions have been essentially constant for two weeks now and if anything it shows a decreasing trend. The number of new cases are stabilising and the number of deaths per day has also been essentially constant for a week or so. The authorities estimate that Sweden now has R≈1.
At this point it seems that the one thing Sweden could have done better was to prevent the spread of the virus specifically into institutions for the elderly. Virus spread in those places appear to have been driven not by visitors but by staff not applying sufficient safety measures.
esteban wrote:
The way South Korea is dealing with it?
I don’t see how that can be sustainable unless they isolate the whole country indefinitely.
LeSving wrote:
What is becoming more and more evident now is that there is little immunity to this disease. You can get it over and over, thus herd immunity goes out the window.
Can you point to some studies about this?
esteban wrote:
People believe what they want to believe …
Yup! That’s exactly it.
esteban wrote:
That is not implied by those espousing “Covid-19 is no more dangerous than previous influenza epidemics”, what is implied is that it is just the same as normal flu seasons, which are essentially ignored.
I think your are reading that wrong normal flu seasons are not influenza epidemics. There have been many serious influenza epidemics in the last century, spanish flu of course is one. If the author meant seasonal flu, he could have easily said so.
esteban wrote:
The way South Korea is dealing with it?
Who says their not? Granted perhaps the politicians mean what they say in that country 
Promising the people that if they just do as they are told and this will go away, may be the best way for some populations, as both psychology and politics play a significant role here.
Accepting that you cannot stop something does not mean you do nothing. You will never stop engine failures, but there are many things that you can do reduce the incidence and severity. I am supportive of the most stringent practical measures, which will almost certainly evolve over the next three years, perhaps for ever.
