MedEwok wrote:
I begin to wonder whether a better strategy to combat Covid-19 would have been to simply shut down all public live, all economic activity, all travel for four weeks, over a huge area
So basically applying what Spain and some parts of Italy actually did (for more than 4 weeks) to all of Europe? Or what would be the difference to the Spanish approach?
Learning from Spain ist: Yes, over a period of 4 weeks you get infection rates down to a very low level but if you want to keep people alive by providing basic things like food, water, EMS, etc. you can not shut down the economy enough to really eradicate the virus. Therefore as soon as you open up again, infection rates also go up.
The idea that we can “clean” certain areas by a hard shutdown sounds nice but has been proven wrong – independently from the fact that not even the German federal states can agree on common measures against the virus so it would be completely impossible to impose something like that on the EU…
Pim5 wrote:
Its just not feasible to totally shut down the economy for a month – you would end up with a immediate death rate exceeding that from the virus itself.
Yes, this is what some people don’t seem to realise. Bad economy kills people.
Fascinating to see late in the article about Professor Gandal (CCNY) the observation that “psychological processes” (stress or fear) interacting with the immune system might explain many Covid deaths.
In other words, the terror that ensues (based on your diet of alarmist news stories) when you get it can make the disease worse which might explain the higher mortality rate in NYC (obviously other factors could play a role too, BUT…..)
This article rings absolutely true to me. During my one “bad night” I felt utterly confident. I could feel battles raging at different places in my body sequentially (chest, foot, thigh, brain) accompanied by high fever that broke into chills, a pause, and then on to the next battle. I could feel that my immune system was winning the fight. It was literally like infantry battles at different locations in my body and I was going to win.
Being terrified that I was going to die would not have helped. If you get it, be confident! Remember that most people get better.
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ccnys-keith-gandal-asks-why-nyc-covid-death-rate-is-four-times-that-of-mumbai-301118233.html
(One author is an English professor so I’m curious what the medical professionals think.)
As previously discussed, obesity is a major risk factor , apparently increasing the likelihood to end up in hospital with Covid-19 (by 113%), to require ICU treatment (by 74%) and to die (by 48%).
Obesity is defined as a BMI > 30 kg/m^2.
WhiskeyPapa wrote:
Fascinating to see late in the article about Professor Gandal (CCNY) the observation that “psychological processes” (stress or fear) interacting with the immune system might explain many Covid deaths.
The influence of psychological stress (or wellbeing) on the body is manifold and still poorly understood. I absolutely agree with your opinion that maintaining a positive outlook in the face of adversity is beneficial for your health and especially the immune system. If you are terribly afraid of SARS-CoV2 and expect it to kill you, it is probably indeed more likely, although marginally, that it will…
MedEwok wrote:
As previously discussed, obesity is a major risk factor ,
Surprised the death rate isn’t much higher in the US then.
This sort of question (why the deaths are now so low here) is an interesting one.
I suspect the answer is that the way the virus spreads is sensitive to a number of factors (well, that’s obvious) and not all of them are known.
The explanation that old peoples’ homes have now got themselves organised properly doesn’t really cut the mustard because nearly all the carers still live at home and most still have the same risk factors (socio economic groups, multiple jobs, etc) and anyway the homes were only a part – say 1/3 – of the total.
Hospitals were also spreading it and they changed their procedures.
We have a better understanding of the medical care and there are some drugs which help a bit, but again that helps only partly – say 1/2.
Maybe people who are most at risk have finally got scared and are being careful?
Peter wrote:
This sort of question (why the deaths are now so low here) is an interesting one.
The main reason I read is that it is mostly younger people being infected nowadays. Last week the average age of newly infected persons in Germany sank to 34, previously it was around 50. Average age of German population is 44 IIRC, so it’s definitely a young segment of the population that gets infected nowadays, and these people have a lower risk of dying.
The hugely increased number of tests of the wider population, rather than testing those turning up in hospital with symptoms severe enough to make them go to hospital, will also be a factor.
The main reason I read is that it is mostly younger people being infected nowadays
I agree, but why the “oldies” aren’t catching the stuff? Even if many more young people are getting it, thus lowering the average age on diagnosis, the oldies should still be getting it in similar numbers. Actually higher numbers because of parents etc catching it from their kids.
Because they are clubbing less?
