Airborne_Again wrote:
Yet, in Sweden, Covid-19 is only the 3rd most common cause of death.
ok. What percentage of the population has been infected, and what will the rank be if the disease runs it course?
Hint: Case fatality rates in populations with ‘Western’ age profiles are in the order of magnitude of 1%.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
Tobacco use is the most important risk factor for cancer and is responsible for approximately 22% of cancer deaths.
It is obviously not comparable, because it is extremely unlikely that you get lung cancer just from sitting next to a smoker once for 10 minutes. With Covid that is different. But still most societies believe that while it is the right of everyone to kill her/himself it should also protect others to be killed.
And this is exactly the reason why in many countries you are no longer allowed to smoke in restaurants, public buildings, etc. not to mention schools, kindergardens.
That is because smokers are spreading the “contagients” for lung cancer.
You see the similarity? Exactly: All the measures about restricting people from spreading the virus to other people in public. Wearing masks and getting vaccinated is al the same like not smoking in public.
Cobalt wrote:
Just to refresh our memory:
Thanks for sharing that chart again – I think, that is one of the most shocking charts to illustrate the real challenge we have in front of us!
On Wednesday, Germany reported 550 Covid deaths. I.e. that on a single day we had ten times as many Covid deaths in Germany only as we had in a whole week on the entire globe in March. On average in Germany we have around 900.000 deaths per year in Germany – that is 2.500 per day.
About 20% of deaths we currently have in Germany are due to Covid!
And for all the smart people out there: Yes, if it would be possible we would ban aging as well and hence avoid many more deaths. Unfortunately despite centuries of research we don’t have a vaccine against aging yet – for Covid we do! Let’s not miss out on this opportunity!
Emir wrote:
Your self-education in medicine is obviously higher than the one of actual medical professionals.
As a free human being, I take flu vaccine exactly if and when I want, and for my own reasons, that’s the point. If you ask the medical establishment, you will get as many opinions about the flu vaccine as there are medical doctors. I just don’t see any reason listening to them, or FB or “experts”/“moral guardians” on EuroGA for that matter 
It will be the same with corona vaccine, but the statistics for corona is a bit worse than the flu. Still, no one has a clue yet about how long the vaccine works, 3 months, a year, 10 years ? That will also have to come into consideration.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
Tobacco use is the most important risk factor for cancer and is responsible for approximately 22% of cancer deaths
You have to be precise. Smoking is the most important risk factor for cancer. Tobacco in itself is risk free. Snus for instance. The medical establishment have tried for decades to show correlation between snus and cancer (and other illnesses). Nothing so for, only symbolism and moralism.
MedEwok wrote:
I wonder where you have this figure from. The John Hopkins university gives a worldwide figure of just under 70 million people, which in my head is just under 1% of the world population (7.8 billion).Over 1.5 million have died from this disease already.
Extrapolating from these figures: if the entire world population would catch it, 150 million people would die, more than in both World Wars combined (throw the Spanish Flu on top of them).
Sadly these numbers are of course total nonsense because it would take 100 years to get to a 150 million dead if I follow your logic. In the mean time a billion people will have died of cancer etc… and you are discounting fo the people (the vast majority) who have already had it without any symptoms etc… (who would be immune) and with a vaccine coming out that is 95% effective. There simply is no scientific justification for these ridiculous lockdown measures.
LeSving wrote:
You have to be precise. Smoking is the most important risk factor for cancer. Tobacco in itself is risk free. Snus for instance. The medical establishment have tried for decades to show correlation between snus and cancer (and other illnesses). Nothing so for, only symbolism and moralism.
I go simply based on the WHO report.
Cobalt wrote:
ok. What percentage of the population has been infected, and what will the rank be if the disease runs it course?Hint: Case fatality rates in populations with ‘Western’ age profiles are in the order of magnitude of 1%.
The world’s biggest killer is ischaemic heart disease, responsible for 16% of the world’s total deaths. Since 2000, the largest increase in deaths has been for this disease, rising by more than 2 million to 8.9 million deaths in 2019. Stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are the 2nd and 3rd leading causes of death, responsible for approximately 11% and 6% of total deaths respectively.
Lower respiratory infections remained the world’s most deadly communicable disease, ranked as the 4th leading cause of death. However, the number of deaths has gone down substantially: in 2019 it claimed 2.6 million lives, 460 000 fewer than in 2000.
Neonatal conditions are ranked 5th. However, deaths from neonatal conditions are one of the categories for which the global decrease in deaths in absolute numbers over the past two decades has been the greatest: these conditions killed 2 million newborns and young children in 2019, 1.2 million fewer than in 2000.
Deaths from noncommunicable diseases are on the rise. Trachea, bronchus and lung cancers deaths have risen from 1.2 million to 1.8 million and are now ranked 6th among leading causes of death.
In 2019, Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia ranked as the 7th leading cause of death. Women are disproportionately affected. Globally, 65% of deaths from Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia are women.
One of the largest declines in the number of deaths is from diarrhoeal diseases, with global deaths falling from 2.6 million in 2000 to 1.5 million in 2019.
Diabetes has entered the top 10 causes of death, following a significant percentage increase of 70% since 2000. Diabetes is also responsible for the largest rise in male deaths among the top 10, with an 80% increase since 2000.
Other diseases which were among the top 10 causes of death in 2000 are no longer on the list. HIV/AIDS is one of them. Deaths from HIV/AIDS have fallen by 51% during the last 20 years, moving from the world’s 8th leading cause of death in 2000 to the 19th in 2019.
Kidney diseases have risen from the world’s 13th leading cause of death to the 10th. Mortality has increased from 813 000 in 2000 to 1.3 million in 2019.
the full report is here —> https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death
The big mistake when going with these sensationalist daily death rates is that the do not take into account seasonality of any of these viruses. Guess what, inlfuenza deaths massively spike during flu season…
In general, people do not get infected by ischaemic heart disease, nor am I worried that my parents pass away from a neonatal condition or that I might catch diabetes from the chap next to me.
You wrote that in response to my question “What percentage of the population has been infected [with Covid-10], and what will the rank [in death dates] be if the disease runs it course?”.
What do you think the answer is?
I think much of this debate hangs on whether one believes that (for example) the UK would have had ~500k deaths which was a reasonable projection if nothing was done. And it seems that it still remains a reasonable projection now, if nothing was done. 60k so far i.e. 1/1000.
And nobody in govt wanted to be on the hook for 500k. Basically you would end up terminating the top-aged 1% of the population, a few years earlier, and the top-obese 1%+, plus many other “chronically ill” groups, much more than a few years earlier. No civilised country was going to see that happen. It would have terminated the entire govt of the day.
It would have been inhuman. It’s been said that the measure of a civilised society is how it looks after its weaker members.
It would happen because the virus spreads so fast that the health care system would not have coped, by a factor of about 10.
