Its interesting the upper projections would probably never have occurred. I suspect as the hosiptals filled peoples’ natural instincts would have taken over and more and more would have self imposed lock downs. It has always been that way when you consider population responses to plagues in the past BUT the numbers would have been alarming and if the politicians had really done nothing they would have been lynched, never mind that I believe the NHS would have collapsed for all practical purposes.
Unfortuantely the vaccine has not come either soon enough or in sufficient volume. We will not get through to the Spring without another lock down of sorts, but at least that should then be the end of it (again for all intents and purposes 
purpsoes).
Crystal ball back in the cupboard.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
again for all intensive purpsoes
for all intents and purposes. Sorry for being a grammar/spelling/phrase Nazi, but this one really gets me :-)
I decided to become an “Anti-Braker”.
Let’s face it: We only have 3.000 deaths in road traffic every year in Germany – less than 1/7 of the Covid-Deaths we had this year already.
Therefore it is very obvious that all the speed limits, restrictions to drive under influence, etc. are complete nonsense and are only made by a absolutistic government to suppress us and take away every fun. Numbers don’t lie!
Let’s face it: The odds that I take any harm when driving along a kindergarten entrance 8:30 in the morning with 100km/h is extremely limited to none existing! And if people that are substantially younger than myself are put in danger by that behavior, they should take care – that’s really not a reason for any type of government to restrict my freedom.
Same with traffic lights: Why should it be my problem, if you are not able to cross the road fast enough. I am absolutely sure that if we collectively ignore traffic lights at pedestrian crossings, it will anyways to a large extend only hit (pun intended ;-)) elderly people who are not that far away from dying anyways. Why should we care? And why should we let our government suppress us by giving us fines as “revenge” if we ignore these rules?
P.S.: Obviously I do it naked – because I learned in the last couple of weeks that it is an intolerable interference of government with my human rights to dictate, when, where and how I have to bring cloth in contact with my body. In addition to that my spiritual healer has written me a certificate, that for urgent medical reasons it is impossible for me to wear clothes and therefore I’m entitled to go naked wherever I want to go.
Its interesting the upper projections would probably never have occurred. I suspect as the hosiptals filled peoples’ natural instincts would have taken over and more and more would have self imposed lock downs.
Well, yes, that’s exactly it – but it’s a different line of argument entirely.
If this thing was allowed to just run through the population, we would get
so, no lockdown at all, the economic damage would have been at least as big. Probably much bigger because if essential services (water, gas, electricity, supermarkets, etc) collapsed then you would have total anarchy. Civilisation is only ever a meal or two away from civil war. The army would have to be on the streets, shooting looters. But the armies in most of Europe are way too small to manage that. This isn’t the USSR where a big chunk of the population is always in the army.
So there was no other option. The lockdowns were a means of managing the situation so essential services carried on. The lockdowns were not necessary at all – if you accept civil war.
The Big Q is what lesson can be learnt from all this, so it doesn’t happen again, because the economic cost is staggering. The simple lesson is much faster action to isolate countries and regions, shut down air travel, etc. And probably roll out “untested but probably ok” vaccines.
This isn’t the USSR where a big chunk of the population is always in the army.
The Russian army is only 3x the size of the UK army on a per capita measure, and has nowhere near enough capabilities to control the whole territory short of razing it as the Chechen war has demonstrated.
One of their IL80 airborne command and control planes has just been burglarised of its communications equipment while undergoing a calendar check in Taganrog (which is a “secure” military base).
Good luck sending them out for population control.
Peter wrote:
Its interesting the upper projections would probably never have occurred. I suspect as the hosiptals filled peoples’ natural instincts would have taken over and more and more would have self imposed lock downs.Well, yes, that’s exactly it – but it’s a different line of argument entirely.
If this thing was allowed to just run through the population, we would get
countless thousands of people dying (of suffocation, mainly) on hospital steps, having been dropped there by relatives in the vain hope of admission. Italy showed a taster of that, in April, and most others getting totally scared to go out, go to work, etcso, no lockdown at all, the economic damage would have been at least as big. Probably much bigger because if essential services (water, gas, electricity, supermarkets, etc) collapsed then you would have total anarchy. Civilisation is only ever a meal or two away from civil war. The army would have to be on the streets, shooting looters. But the armies in most of Europe are way too small to manage that. This isn’t the USSR where a big chunk of the population is always in the army.
So there was no other option. The lockdowns were a means of managing the situation so essential services carried on. The lockdowns were not necessary at all – if you accept civil war.
The Big Q is what lesson can be learnt from all this, so it doesn’t happen again, because the economic cost is staggering. The simple lesson is much faster action to isolate countries and regions, shut down air travel, etc. And probably roll out “untested but probably ok” vaccines.
As I think you know, I fully support lockdowns as and when required, and have always said so.
In my view, without lockdowns, the number who would have died would have been far greater.
I think it is clear when it happens again, with current technology, a really effective TTI is the only effective response we currently have. Even this would have a significant impact on the economy, but not as significant as having an ineffective TTI system that is current the situation. I think this should be combined with far more effective isolation of people coming into the country as there is no doubt TTI has a far greater chance of proving effective if numbers are kept very low. I suspect restricting the movement of people would also greatly assist TTI thereby isolating outbreaks before they spread.
In many ways this is how Australia has controlled and all but eliminated COVID. Perhaps there single weakness was an effective electronic TT system, but the other components have worked pretty well. The impact on their economy has been considerably less than that for most countries and the majority of Australia is operating normally. I appreciate they have a more thinly populated country (continent) and are geographically isolated which has helped their cause, but a similiar approach could have been taken elsewhere.
I am not sure the politicians ever believed the virologists that COVID would either spread as qucikly as it does, or have the impact it has. Even now politicians are struggling to do what is require, but of course part of the problem is by not keeping really effective control of COVID in the first place, the management of `COVID has become an impossible balancing act.
The probablility is that when it happens again if it is a respiratory virus the morbidity will have a similiar spread by age, but it is possible it could be more infectious with a higher death rate. In a way we may have been lucky this time, certainly in economic terms, because if either the infection rate or the mortaltity rate were 50% higher then the world’s ecnomies would have bombed.
I do think however next time regulatory approval of a vaccine and roll out should be significantly quicker as I susepct the same techniques can be used BUT I guess the nightmare scenario would be a respiratory virus that is closer to flu, but more dangerous than COVID, in that its mutation cycle would be very short, making it diffficult to develop a specific targeted vaccine that wouldnt quickly become ineffective.
Track & trace didn’t work here in the UK (~20% participation / locate success?) and I doubt it works anywhere in the “free world”. One obvious problem is that people don’t want to register on it because it is so easy to get consigned to your home for 2 weeks 
Even regional lockdowns don’t work (in free countries) because if the local politicians (what the BBC calls “leaders”) are in the opposition party (which is more or less assured to be the case for poorer regions, which is also where there is a lot more virus spread for various reasons) then they use the opportunity to drive a wedge between the local population and the govt. It was quite skilfully done here. So the only lockdown which is feasible is one which does a lot of economic damage. Hey ho.
Malibuflyer wrote:
I decided to become an “Anti-Braker”.
ROFL, thanks for this. Really needed a good laugh.
As for the “terrorists” really have won… unless someone really has the impression that Covid is an intentional act, this is a totally screwed up statement.
From February on people have brought up the experiences with plagues like Covid, the Spanish Flu, the Corona plague which falsely was named the Russian Flu and others. They all worked the same as Covid in the sense that they came in waves and each wave was worse than the one before. Most of them burn out after the third, most horrible wave.
Covid 19 makes no change to that. It was contained originally in Europe quite well after the first wave had a massive shock and awe effect. The huge majority of people understood at the time (or rather took it for fact) that this was dangerous and therefore lockdowns and whatever should be followed to the latter.
Summer came and people thought ok, it’s all over. Despite the warnings, the pleas and facts on the table, people and politicians felt competent to relax measures. The consequence was predictable, in fact, many of us here did so and were shouted down. when the 2nd wave really started hitting in October, many called for lockdowns but were outvoted by “freedom and economy” advocates. Now we are in a situation where the plague rages out of control and all the half hearted measures now in place prolong the agony rather than being effective. The only thing which would be able to reduce the horrible numbers we are seeing is a total unconditional lockdown as it was in force in spring in most places. It is clear that the only countries who were successful in fighting this killer were those who were totally strict, including NZ, Oz, Taiwan and other similar states. The rest of the world failed miserably.
Covid did never need to be the economy killer it now is, had ALL countries reacted immediately and harshly. China had a lockdown of a few weeks, so did the other mentioned places and they got it under control. Europe and the US are a breakfast no self respecting dog would touch, thanks to ignorance, falsely interpreted freedom and governments impaired by internal struggles. Pandemic plans were thrown down the toilets. Now we are facing a much larger catastrophe, most countries go in a renewed lockdown, those who still in denial or have too much succumbed to anarchia have exponential infections until their health systems will collapse, by which time we will see societies break down as well.
This is “only” the 2nd wave. There will be a third, as all previous pandemics have proven. Part of this will stem from people who will refuse vaccination, part of the lack of vaccines and part of public resistance to measures imposed. We may even see violent uprisings in the near future, now that more and more countries are forced to lock down just before Xmas.
To claim that terrorists of whatever couleur have won the war is complete balderdash. All that has happened is that the weak reactions of western governments have failed the initial response and now we are seeing a repetition of pandemics as they have existed for centuries. Only today we would have to possibility to stop them, but are unwilling to sacrifice a bit of freedom for a few weeks, thereby prompting misery and huge death tolls all over the world.
Those who still claim that it is all a complot to destroy freedom will maybe never acknowledge the facts. They may even continue their denial over the graves of their own loved ones. Well, I can’t help that. But I have learnt a lot about mankind in the last year and not much of it has been good. My trust in society is totally gone and I have lost friends and people I knew well to Covid as well a people I thought I knew who are alive and well but lost to me all the same. Nobody should forget the unspeakable stuff people have said openly in this crisis. By their acts and words shall you know them. And often, getting to know the real people behind the masks is a painful exercise.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
China had a lockdown of a few weeks, so did the other mentioned places and they got it under control.
I think you will find it was more like 3 months and their lockdown was literally the police/army preventing people leaving building with one person per family being allowed out once a week to get supplies – Utility workers did not go home.
Try that in any western democracy.
I am now personally familiar with several young people in good shape who have not only wound up in the hospital but required supplemental oxygen and had a very rough time of the disease, including one who is on an ICU now. But I also know literally dozens of people who have recovered with light cases.
I used to think our response to the disease was overblown, but I’m not so sure now. My guess is, if you are young and in good shape, you have a roughly 3-4% chance of a really bad case. This means at early stages many people are going to react “what’s all the fuss about?” The next stage of denial is, “well, it’s really sad, but it’s not going to happen to me because only obese, elderly diabetics have a rough ride..” the next stage is “well he/she must have had an underlying condition.” When it becomes a mass phenomenon and the absolute number of people in the hospital gets large, and many of these cases can’t be explained away, it gets really weird. With taxi drivers, service people, business contact, etc the first discussion on contact is about ascertaining who had had it/not had it. (We’re going to wear masks with each other or not?)
So you have meetings in person with other people who have had it. I am amazed at the amount of fatalism among most people (including myself before). People loathe social isolation and often ready to accept huge risks to avoid it. It’s part of being human.
Be careful folks. Take the vaccine when it becomes available.
