Peter wrote:
The actuarial life expectancy in N Europe (lots of tables online; already posted here) is about 8 years at age 80. At 70 it is about 14 years.
These are averages and they don’t take into account individual circumstances. Life values and personal attitudes to risk vary as well. My point is that everybody should decide for themselves.
Malibuflyer wrote:
Why? Does it help in any way to fight the pandemic know? This is exactly the “we need to blame the Chinese” mindset that absolutely doesn’t help right now.
Oh yes, it does in the sense that we need to get to the bottom of the origins of the outbreak and ensure that politically motivated obfuscation doesn’t happen again. This isn’t the last virus.
“Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 circulated in Italy earlier than the first official COVID-19 cases were diagnosed in Lombardy, even long before the first official reports from the Chinese authorities, casting new light on the onset and spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
This was the original report which I have read (and just reread). I am still not aware it has been peer reviewed?
Never mind, it tells us very little other than there may have been cases earlier than the first official report from the Chinese.
It is also known that there is a significant flow of Chinese people from Wuhan to Italy because of their close interests in the leather trade. It could well be the case the virus was brought to Italy earlier and was circulatin in Wuhan earlier – my hunch is this is almost certainly the case.
I suppose there is even the remote possibility the virus originated in Italy. However there is absolutely no evidence to support this. I am not even sure there is any evidence that any of the bat population in Italy carry this virus for example.
However, this is all irrevelevant. The fact is we know the Chinese realised they had a problem before it was reported. The Italians as far as we know did not realise they had a problem.
The Chinese could therefore have reported the problem earlier than they did – but chose not to.
These are averages and they don’t take into account individual circumstances. Life values and personal attitudes to risk vary as well. My point is that everybody should decide for themselves.
I agree, and my point is that IF you are say 60+ and in good health then you may accept known risks where you have some (or a lot of) control (driving, flying, etc) while being unwilling to accept unknown risks where you have no control at all (CV19).
I would also say what I do find surprsing is the lack of common sense in all this.
Pure conjecture on my part, but the virus infected a person at some point in time, of that we can be certain. From that point, our common sense that has developed from our knowledge of this virus and most others becomes relevant. We have a pretty good idea how many people will show symptoms now, we know how long roughtly it takes between infection and being able to pass on the virus, how long before you become sick, and how long before you become very sick. We also know the rate of transmission. IF (and I repeat if) that first case was in Wuhan, it seems entirely logical it would have taken a few months before it built much momentum. It seems entirely logical with the flow of international traffic, the virus would have been taken to many other places in the world in this initial period. It seems entirely possible the very early cases would not have been spotted for what they were – this was after all an unknown virus. Most developed health authorites are constantly on the watch for unexplained case clusters. We have in the UK our very own developed alert system. At some point it would have been raised there was a problem, and probably this would have been some weeks, even months after the first case. While all this was going on, small clusters would be developing, pretty much going unnoticed and unexplained, exactly as happens early in the year with seasonal flu, but with different parameters becasue it takes longer for Covid to present with severe symtoms, and even then lots of people who never present with severe symptoms.
In short I am not at all surprised that there will be some evidence cases occurred elsewhere in the world much earlier than the Chinese alerted the world to this threat. In fact I would be surprised were this not the case.
What does surprise me is any credance is given to the suggestion the virus originated in multiple places around the world. It also surprises me that becasue the Italians say we may have had cases in Italy before December, we somehow jump to the conclusion the virus originated in Italy, rather than the more logical conclusion it origianted in China, but the Chinese delayed reporting they had a problem for even longer than we have been lead to beleive. Of course this is all conjecture. I am not saying any of this is fact. However often sensible conjecture is the best approach to which alleys you initially explore.
I have said it before and I will say it again. I know quite a few people who deal with Chinese businesses. Without exception they report the Chinese cannot be trusted. In forensic science if you have a bunch of people saying one of the suspects cant be trusted you start your investigation there, everything else being equal, and the WHO has clearly come to the same conclusion at the moment.
172driver wrote:
ensure that politically motivated obfuscation doesn’t happen again. This isn’t the last virus.
Fully agree – but what do we learn in China that would help us to prevent this in any other country. Pretty unlikely that the next virus will also originate in China. So as proposed in an earlier post: Rather than wasting energy to blame China let’s work in our own home country to prevent that something like this happens here. None of our great nations has a full, unconditional and immediate disclosure policy for such events.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
I am still not aware it has been peer reviewed
I can’t help that you are not aways of anything rather than posting you the original article. What would make you aware if not that.
Sorry, but “I’m not aware”, “There is no consensus”, we can never really know are all excuses for “I do not want to accept the truth because it doesn’t fit into my picture of the world”.
Fuji_Abound wrote:
t is also known that there is a significant flow of Chinese people from Wuhan to Italy because of their close interests in the leather trade.
Ah – that you are aware of – so where is the peer reviewed article for that? There seems to be a bias in what you accept as truth…
Fuji_Abound wrote:
I suppose there is even the remote possibility the virus originated in Italy. However there is absolutely no evidence to support this. I am not even sure there is any evidence that any of the bat population in Italy carry this virus for example.
Completely irrelevant obfuscation! It is not the point if the virus originated in Italy, China, Africa or the Mars. The only relevant question is if there has been anything we could have learned for future viruses.
And as far as we know the virus has already been present in more than one country before “the evil Chinese” could have done anything for or against it. Therefore …
Fuji_Abound wrote:
The Chinese could therefore have reported the problem earlier than they did – but chose not to.
… this is completely irrelevant (beyond the agenda to demonstrate how evil the Chinese are). Even if they could have and did report it a month earlier, the Virus would still have been in Italy several months before that.
Malibuflyer wrote:
I can’t help that you are not aways of anything rather than posting you the original article. What would make you aware if not that.
Sorry, but “I’m not aware”, “There is no consensus”, we can never really know are all excuses for “I do not want to accept the truth because it doesn’t fit into my picture of the world”.
I have explained clearly why I accept it is quite possible Covid was present earlier in Italy. I am very happy to be informed please and to modify my views. Please do link to the peer reviews and, for balance, the numeorus articles that examine and discuss this original research. Why do you think some early cases in Italy is relevant in any event? Do you believe the virus originated in Italy and if so why?
As to the flow of people between China and Italy I dont see the relvance of a peer reviewed article? It is well known and I have seen no denials. Another example – there is a daily flight direct from Wuhan to Melbourne. Do you think there would be no Chinese on this flight? It is trivial to research flights from Wuhan to various destinations in the world.
With respect perhaps my arument was not clear. Yes the virus would have existed in pockets around the world by the time the first conceivable reports could have been made. However, someone was in a position to realise they had a problem with a knew unknown virus. The Chinese are especially on the watch because of their past experiences. I have explained why, whatever the political response, it is vital the world community is alerted the moment there is any suspicion that a virus like this has appeared.
I am mildly upset you think this has anything to do with the Chinese people and whether or not they are evil. I have no issue with the Chinese people what so ever – let me be absolute clear, although I dont really see the need. The Chinese people having nothing to do with this. I do have reservations about the Chinese politcal system but this is entirely another matter. There are for that matter other political systems I have reservations about.
I have learnt a great deal from some very well informed opinions, but I think this one for me has run its course, so I would far rather end on an up beat note that we do well here to avoid anything we discuss becoming personal, and I am still relatively positive about the outcome. I think the vaccine will prove highly effective, although it may take time to cover all the variants, and I think the world will return to whatever it was we considered normal, but with some modifications.
I am going to try to resist contributing any further but I have really enjoyed the discussion with everyone.
Thank you.
Malibuflyer wrote:
Pretty unlikely that the next virus will also originate in China.
Au contraire, I’d say it highly likely given wet markets and super-crowded living conditions. SARS anyone?
172driver wrote:
wet markets
Wet markets exist all over Europe, too.
