Peter wrote:
Here is another, with the source
even in SA people do not typically die within 10 days after diagnosis. The steep decay of the 10 day case fatality curve only demonstrates that the growth in case numbers is much steeper than the waves before and it is too early to evaluate fatality.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
If Covid has shown one thing is that the whole interaction between science and politics and press is fundamentally flawed.
I couldn’t agree more. The problem is that most people, politicians and press included, understand the sum total of f*ck all about science of any sort.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
In such crisis as we have now, it is important that a crisis center is established and ALL, really ALL communication to and from the public goes via that single official voice.
I couldn’t disagree more. A large part of the problem at present is that scientists and politicians are behaving as though there’s one truth out there – that Covid-19 is a high infection fatality rate (IFR – aviation connection) plague and we’ll all die unless drastic action continues forever. Anyone who suggests it is not quite as bad as some are making out or that government responses are disproportionate is castigated as a Covid-denier and conspiracy theorist. We need to be more open about the uncertainties, not less.
Scientists advising governments is necessary because politicians know nothing about scientific matters, but you have to realise what the limitations of that arrangement are. The constant talk of ‘following the science’ is total bunkum because although scientists can tell you what might happen or what the effect of doing XYZ might be, they can’t tell you whether you should do it or not because that’s a political decision. But of course they do tell the politicians what to do, and in doing so they exert undue influence on the political process. It is further compounded by the fact that they view things almost exclusively through the lens of infection control and public health, ignoring the fact that there is a bigger picture (the economy and society), and as @Peter often mentions they are keen to stay in the news and the restrictive measures they lobby for never pose a threat to their own income or career.
Peter wrote:
Not at all the case. I am referring to the media reports being rendered practically meaningless by the “PC brigade”.
Sorry, but Mooney_Driver is right. It happens constantly.
As you say: Politicians can only act on the advice of scientists. Therefore, most countries have put in place a task force which consists of the foremost specialists of infectious diseases in the country to advice the leadership. That taskforce is usually speaking with one more or less official voice, so that the public know what they advise the government.
That is how it is supposed to work.
However, the work of the taskforces is undermined by hundreds of other “scientists” most of which have no official capacity whatsoever, many of which may be anything between a vet and a dermatologist, who will wish their share of fame and start to spread FUD on the media.
Thirdly you get the media who will do anything for a click.
This combination is deadly.
The whole thing is a classical 5 phases of grief situation, where society still lingers on the denial and anger phase. We never got to reckognition let alone acceptance and consequent action. That is why it is also a large blame game. If you look at what is even said here, it is always the “others” which are to blame or whose pandemic it is.
- The fatsoes, because they are too undisciplined and don’t follow the good Lord Vegan. It’s a pandemic of fatsoes dying. Well, they deserve it, don’t they?
- The “unhealthy”. They deserve it too, no? Haven’t we been telling them for decades to live like cows in the pasture?
- The old and frail. Well, it’s their problem. They don’t contribute to the economy anyway, so let them die. They cost enough to maintain.
- mor recently, the unvaccinated. It’s their problem. Their decision. So let them die, they are not worthy life anyway.
But me? No. I am a model citizen, do my 1000 pushups before breakfast and 100k steps a day. Can’t happen to me, can it? Then what the hell am I doing in the ICU now?
Blame the others, deny it can hit anyone and you got the clusterf..k we have to day.
While the only ones really to blame are incometent leaders who STILL to this day lack the balls to finally take the rudder in hand. Rather than just watch the iceberg grow bigger. All that while those countries whose leaders got it right in the beginning have never been living anywhere close to this kind of nightmare.
Science has maneuvered itself into a deep smelly pot from which it won’t find out very quick. He who lies once, will forever be disbelieved. Welcome superstition and actionism. Society can survive a lot, but not this. There is no way back from where we are headed.
Sorry, but Mooney_Driver is right. It happens constantly.
I have learnt that obesity has no correlation with susceptibility to CV19 related illness!
Mooney_Driver wrote:
As you say: Politicians can only act on the advice of scientists. Therefore, most countries have put in place a task force which consists of the foremost specialists of infectious diseases in the country to advice the leadership. That taskforce is usually speaking with one more or less official voice, so that the public know what they advise the government.
That’s not quite it.
Politicians need information from scientists because, like small children, they need things put into very simple terms for them. They do not need ‘advice’ from scientists because the decisions they need to take are political ones, not scientific ones.
With the information in hand, we then look at a question like whether we should enforce a national lockdown or alternatively accept X number of deaths as inevitable. That is a political, philosophical and moral question rather than a scientific question. The opinion of a foremost expert in infectious diseases matters no more on that question than your opinion or mine, but we can say with almost total certainty that the expert will have more bias in their opinion because they tend to view the world completely through the lens of their speciality.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
That is why it is also a large blame game. If you look at what is even said here, it is always the “others” which are to blame or whose pandemic it is.- The fatsoes, because they are too undisciplined and don’t follow the good Lord Vegan. It’s a pandemic of fatsoes dying. Well, they deserve it, don’t they?
- The “unhealthy”. They deserve it too, no? Haven’t we been telling them for decades to live like cows in the pasture?
- The old and frail. Well, it’s their problem. They don’t contribute to the economy anyway, so let them die. They cost enough to maintain.
- mor recently, the unvaccinated. It’s their problem. Their decision. So let them die, they are not worthy life anyway.But me? No. I am a model citizen, do my 1000 pushups before breakfast and 100k steps a day. Can’t happen to me, can it? Then what the hell am I doing in the ICU now?
Blame the others, deny it can hit anyone and you got the clusterf..k we have to day.
No vegans here, to my knowledge. No ultramarathon freaks either. Peter’s point (and mine) is that the media look to scare us by describing a lot of people who have died of Covid-19 as ‘fit and healthy’ when they are really nothing of the sort by any objective measure.
But there is a valid conversation to be had about how the virus affects different people, why some are so much more susceptible, and if/how the rest of society should (or should not) pay a large price to try and offer extra protection to this relatively small subset of the population. I do not find it helpful that you continue to pedal this idea that it’s a potential terror and life-ender for everyone. The cumulative data is very, very clear that unless you are elderly or have significant underlying health conditions then the risk of severe Covid-19 is incredibly small, vanishingly small if vaccinated. The fact that risk is not spread evenly throughout a population is too complex to take root in most of the public, it seems. I don’t know why your personal experiences seem to indicate something different to the overall picture – perhaps some of these people have (or had) health issues they didn’t tell you about? People often don’t share everything, and in any case as per above we may have different definitions of fit and healthy.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
All that while those countries whose leaders got it right in the beginning have never been living anywhere close to this kind of nightmare.
Different countries, different problems. The oft-cited examples of Australia and New Zealand are incomparable because their geographic isolation allowed pursuit of a zero-Covid strategy which looks great for a while, but not so great once it became clear vaccines weren’t going to wipe the virus out. They now need to perform enormous political U-turns and convince their populations to accept high infection rates as inevitable, or else keep their borders closed for ever. Then you have various countries in Asia where governments can take whatever strong action they like without fear of losing an election because they’re barely democracies anyway and troublemakers just “disappear” if you need them to. Western governments have generally taken the strongest action they feel they can get away in the context of the next election, regardless of any concerns about proportionality. You see this in the UK where the devolved leaders of Scotland and Wales, who in normal times and outside of public health matters have very little power, take every opportunity without fail to introduce a slightly greater restriction than that applicable in England.
Emergency powers abound and will be rescinded only with the greatest reluctance… never let a good crisis go to waste.
Peter wrote:
I have learnt that obesity has no correlation with susceptibility to CV19 related illness!
Come on, that’s not at all what this is about.
Obese people are always on the defensive, across all social media, in all discussions of worsening CV19 outcomes. That is to be expected, of course. It has been seen here on EuroGA many times. One sees the same with smokers; they also know their health is impacted but tend to argue on civil liberties grounds.
Emergency powers abound and will be rescinded only with the greatest reluctance… never let a good crisis go to waste.
That’s a valid concern. Look at the UK GAR 12 hr PNR for C.I. and Ireland business. It’s been completely stupid for something like 30 years.
Currently, various countries are collecting great personal data on travellers.
I guess somebody will one day create an “aggregator” website which does it all for you. Like the various GAR filing facilities. The problem with such a site is that it must be in possession of the various logins and of your personal data, so you need to trust it. Of course it won’t be free.
Wife : did I get fat during COVID?
Husband : You were never really skinny to begin with.
Time Of death 11.15 AM, cause of death COVID
;-)
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The fatsoes, because they are too undisciplined and don’t follow the good Lord Vegan. It’s a pandemic of fatsoes dying. Well, they deserve it, don’t they?
I am going to bed this evening pondering on the plural of fatsoes….
