esteban wrote:
Observations so far show exponential growth (e.g. USA) – a straight line in that graph – while no lockdown is in effect. (Eventually, saturation would level it off, but so far that is happening only locally – e.g. Lombardy, not for the whole countries).When a western-style lockdown comes into effect (as opposed to China-style full lockdown), the growth transitions to power-law (essentially a polynomial, would be straight line in a graph where both axis are log-scale).
This makes sense – exponential growth requires good mixing. With a lockdown, the social interaction graph gets pruned quite a bit, especially the long links – so the infection spreads more like a wave in a D-dimensional space – hence the power-law. There are some papers about this, I just can’t dig them out now.
To follow-up on this, the link is here (in layman’s language): https://record.umich.edu/articles/study-containment-appears-to-step-down-covid-19-spread
and the technical paper referenced from there for those who want more.
BeechBaby wrote:
esteban wrote: I guess his anger matches your anger and thats why you write “my God is he on the money”Interesting comment.
Where is the anger? I certainly remain my usual cool, calm, balanced self.
I apologize, I certainly do not see into your mind.
However, that fact that you identify so well with the Hutchinson’s paper does tell something.
And from the way the Hutchinson’s paper is written, one can read between the lines his anger.
Not the loud, shouting one, but the silent, pent-up seething one.
Are you honest with yourself?
BeechBaby wrote:
Just because someone has a differing viewpoint on the ’’facts’’ does not mean that they are wrong,
Exactly (although there should not be quotes around facts). The problem is that Hutchinson has only a viewpoint, but no logical arguments based on true facts to support his viewpoint. I gave you just one example where he is dead wrong.
At the end it is pointless – the economy would have had very serious problems even if everything remained officially open. The people would have (simply from the self-preservation reasons) eventually stopped traveling and going out en masse (just some weeks later than the official lockdown), with the resulting economic effects. Not to say about the effects of collapsed health care system and disrupted just-in-time supply chains.
The difference between those who take it seriously from the very beginning (South Korea, Singapore, Hong-Kong) and those that try to live as normal as possible for as long as possible (UK, USA, Sweden?) is just the magnitude of the problems at the moment when they have to face the reality.
Given the already present social tensions (why do you think Johnson/Trump/various nationalists and populists are being elected?), ordinary people perceiving that their government left them to die in the name of business could just be the spark that lets the pitchforks out.
Interesting times …
Mooney_Driver wrote:
Consequently, particularly in the buiness world, most people will reckognize the futility of travelling vs virtual meetings and therefore business travel will reduce to maybe 10% of what it used to be
This could well come to pass. I think a lot of business trips are done out of inertia (we send people across the Atlantic because we’ve always sent people across the Atlantic, and there’s some undefined magic about “real face to face meetings” we cannot do without) and now they are forced to try doing these things online, find out it works perfectly well, they will come to the conclusion: why are we spending all this money on air fares, the lost productivity (a day in each direction + jetlag) for meetings etc. that don’t absolutely require physical presence? Or even just across Europe. You’ll easily lose half a day productivity in each direction + costs of airfares/hotels.
Not a good time to be an airline pilot. I don’t see the third runway at Heathrow going ahead now.
The projections were ~500k deaths if nothing was done.
I think the projections were for 300-600k deaths assuming about 60% of people were infected and the death rate was up to 0.8%. I haven’t looked up the figures to double check but those were in the ballpark.
The question of what happens if we do nothing is different, because if the hospitals are overwhelmed the mortality may be higher than 0.8% and significantly I think the age range of those dying may be skewed towards younger people.
kwlf wrote:
The question of what happens if we do nothing is different, because if the hospitals are overwhelmed the mortality may be higher than 0.8% and significantly I think the age range of those dying may be skewed towards younger people.
Important point. If hospitals are overwhelmed for whatever reason, people who need hospital treatment for whatever reason (say heart attack, stroke, broken bones etc.) will also face adverse outcomes and their likelihood of dying increases significantly even though their own medical needs may have nothing at all with Covid-19!
This is why “healthcare system collapse” really needs to avoided at all cost. And yes, that cost (economically speaking) will be huge! But as Peter outlined quite well further above, trying to limit the economic damage by scaling back on the containment measures will most certainly lead to greater economic fallout down the road…
All of you really should take a look at this video
A real MD from Cornell the busiest hospital in New York, its 59 minutes long,
And the French yesterday released a study of 80 patients treated with chloroquine and Zithromax with reduction n of viral load in 5 days to 90% and only 2 failures
esteban wrote:
And from the way the Hutchinson’s paper is written, one can read between the lines his anger.
Not the loud, shouting one, but the silent, pent-up seething one.Are you honest with yourself?
I am going to spend the rest of the day having sprung into spring, in a moment of self analysis. with a hallucinogenic drink and cigarette.
After this period has ended I will sign back into EuroGa and let you @esteban and the the forum community, know if the silent, pent-op, seething one has passed.
Another bong anyone?
5 minutes in and he hasn’t conveyed a single piece of information, so I gave up. Maybe you can just summarize the new information that only he has quickly in a few bullet points?
@BeechBaby if you remember the 70’s you weren’t there 
Still not reduced to a viewing of Withnail and I, but am pretty sure it will be on re run shortly.
RobertL18C wrote:
if you remember the 70’s you weren’t there
Wish to hell I was back there! Life was somewhat easier, what with three day weeks, better poverty, and the lights out at 10.00
