One would hope that the lessons learned will be that Government is incapable of making much difference in this situation except (1) by long term policy such as zoning laws to limit population density, a positive, and (2) by making extraordinary and inflexible restrictions on productive activity (without much regard for its role in spreading disease) that create a long term effect worse than the disease itself has created, a negative. I think fear and information are the biggest influencers on keeping people apart from each other, which clearly does have an effect.
@Aart, we have a 10 kg cat living across the street who has adopted us, comes to see us every morning for breakfast at 6:30, and is bizarrely affectionate for a cat. He doesn’t seem to care much about staying at home, but his owners are so we’ll trust that he’s not conveying anything undesirable! He’s a good guy.
Peter wrote:
Just seen this
To be taken with a pinch of salt I think.
1. People who will fill in an online survey on this topic are probably people who want to show that they’re doing their part. So those who are trying to avoid the restrictions won’t fill it up.
2. Even those filing it in are probably underestimating their contacts.
Hopefully even taking these into account the R value is still below 1, but I don’t think we can be really sure from such an online survey.
Silvaire wrote:
by long term policy such as zoning laws to limit population density
Why?
The countries with some of the highest population densities in the world (Singapore, Hong Kong, S Korea) are clearly managing the crisis more successfully than low pop density countries (U.S., Spain, Australia).
DavidJ wrote:
The countries with some of the highest population densities in the world (Singapore, Hong Kong, S Korea) are clearly managing the crisis more successfully than low pop density countries (U.S., Spain, Australia).
Because they caught it in time, out of their experience with the earlier SARS epidemics I suppose, and people in those countries are disciplined, wear masks the moment they as much as get hayfever and will comply to what their governments say, period. They know the alternative and it ain’t pretty.
In the western countries people live in near anarchy as there is no law enforcement strong enough to take on a lockdown like this and enforce it and there are no governments in place who have the laws and the balls to go to the full extent of a total lock down including massive sanctions on those who ignore it. That is why the Asian countries basically have managed to contain it and are on the way out whereas Europe and the US will go down in flames. And it is not that a lot of reasonable people who HAVE followed the government recommendations to the letter from day one have not been shouting for a total shut down for the last MONTH. Even in a democratic process, the huge majority wanted a short but total shut down rather than 2 years with a stopped economy before eventually we get a vaccine or the survivors will acquire herd immunity.
By the time this is over many western countries will be failed states and are ready for the picking by demagogues and right and left wing extremists who have just been waiting for a chance like this.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
By the time this is over many western countries will be failed states and are ready for the picking by demagogues and right and left wing extremists who have just been waiting for a chance like this.
Nice to see your mood has improved @Mooney_Driver! 
There will be huge economic turmoil, but inevitably a partial recovery when things open up. Most countries have seemed to get the joke now even (sort of) the US. If governments can get the banks to actually spend the capital they have committed, not yet seen in the Uk or Germany, then the outcome will be much better. So far the only companies being supported are those that don’t need support.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
left wing extremists
Left wing extremists don’t exist in Western Europe since Baader-Meinhof and Brigate Rosse.
JasonC wrote:
There will be huge economic turmoil, but inevitably a partial recovery when things open up. Most countries have seemed to get the joke now even (sort of) the US.
You know, the one bit which is starting to be encouraging is that many people now start taking this into their own hands and tell people who still think they are above it all to stop being idiots and stay out of the public. Maybe peer pressure and social media might in the end clear the streets over Easter…
Yes you are right, the economy will eventually recover. It did so also after WWII in scenarios well beyond what is to be expected here. But maybe those who fear for their share value should look at how that was. Never since WW II has society lost so many in such a short time to a biological warfare scenario, whether caused by natural causes or not. This does things to society which will reflect in their behaviour afterwards.
I suppose working from home or social distancing will become a rather standard thing in the future. Paper pushing and money counting works from home as much as in virus breeding rooms such as the very common large officespaces so popular today. Clearly once herd immunity on this virus has been achieved things will slowly pick up, but don’t underestimate the rage and disappointment those who now loose a lot of loved ones and businesses, livelyhoods and all that to the indecisive actions of their governments. My concern is that a lot of protest groups which have won considerable votes in recent elections will overrun those countries failed by their governments in prevention of this crisis and will profit from the general discord. Not to forget certain political heavyweights who have been playing states with political divisions with the genius of chess grandmasters in recent years. Some of those have managed to keep their population reasonably safe in comparison, that will make a lot of people wonder whether they are not better served by people like them.
aart wrote:
Our squadron of cats (sorry, I’m an outlier here it seems!)
Absolutely not. Cats are the superior beings, dogs have no free will of their own, they follow only commands like some mediocre KI. Why anyone would favour them over feline deities remains a mystery.
Emir wrote:
Left wing extremists don’t exist in Western Europe since Baader-Meinhof and Brigate Rosse.
Podemos in Spain? Mooney wrote about ‘extremeists’, the two organizations you mention were terrorists. Not the same.
Emir wrote:
Left wing extremists don’t exist in Western Europe since Baader-Meinhof and Brigate Rosse.
Those were terrorists and anarchists at the same time with no plan and no idea what to do if they actually achieved their goals, yes communists, but they were looking for someone else to take over once they achieved their goals. The political extremists active today in quite a few countries are a different kind of breed altogether.
