kwlf wrote:
If it is in the literature then post a citation.
Have fun.
Pediatrics Infectious Disease… “History and Recent Advances in Coronavirus Discovery” Journal Nov 2005 Vol 24 issue 11
ScienceDaily > Science News… New Sars-like Virus can jump directly to Humans no treatment available Nov 10 2015.. Source North Carolina Univ Chapel Hill
Nature…. “Engineered Bat Virus Stirs Debate Over Risky Research” Nov 12 2015
ScienceDaily > Science News…. “New Corona virus emerges from Bats Devastates Young Swine” Source NIH Allergy and Infectious Disease
April 4 2018
State of the Nation… “A Hybrid Virus which is far more deadly and cant be Vaccinated Against”…. March 9 2020
AntiViral Research… “The Spike Glycoprotein of the new Coronavirus”……. Vol 176 April 2020
Virology Journal Vol 16 April 2020
kwlf wrote:
1) Supply. There is a global shortage and the patients who need it for the traditional indications will suffer greatly if it is all repurposed to treat COVID.Agreed those that have been taking the Drug should be allowed to continue to take it. The Drug manufacturers are ramping up the production unfortunately there are countries that have stopped international shipments until they have enough for domestic use. Good reason for quarantine to delay and spread out lower the peak.
2) Danger. If you give it to millions of people then a fair few will die. Worthwhile if it works.
Under medical Supervision with 60 years of use and millions taking it very few fatalities. Did you know that for years it was given to the US troops in Vietnam once a week?
3) If people assume that it will work, then they may come to harm because of not taking hygiene measures that are known to work.
That is where education comes in. Correlate use with immunity that takes time (a real double blind study) and billions of doses be available.
We are taking part in a clinical trial locally. There is no reason for this to be a long-winded process and there are lots of questions such as when the best time to give it would be, and what doses should be given, that a properly designed study should answer.
Clinical trials take time its like baking, turn up the heat and ruin the bread. Ive been involved with clinical trials so I have some knowledge about them.
C210_Flyer wrote:
So do you think the world should be locked down until a proper vaccine is developed and tested. Oh about a year from now?
Pretty much, with the exception of relaxation of measures where warranted, i.e. where case numbers are warranting relaxing measures. Those countries or even better those areas where few to no infections exist can go back to normal internally much faster, but they will need to do so in complete shut borders with quarantaine and testing in order to stay clean. Others will most probably not go back to anything resembling normal until vaccinations are available. Even then, the shock of this will most probably change a lot of previously normal rights and possibilities. If I owned an airline, I’d convert a lot of my planes to cargo now or rent in similar type cargo planes to keep their air crews busy and to transport goods. That is going to be a vital business in the next years.
You know, those who remain ignorant of this mortal danger to every single person on the globe will in the end have to face the music. Mr Johnson, who was talking about herd immunity and wanted to keep everything open, is now finding out for himself what it means to have this thing. Others will follow. Maybe this will change their ignorance about the dangers of this horrible sickness a bit.
Clearly, this catastrophe could have been avoided if the proper measures would have been taken early in the originating countries and if the rest of the world would have shut itself down while numbers were still in the traceable quantities rather than to sacrifice hundreds of thousands if not millions of life to the altar of an economy, which now will most probably be irreversibly ruined by prolonged shut down measures. Had it been done early and strictly, most countries could think of getting back to near normal within a month. Now we will most probably never get back to where we once were or at least not any time soon.
The problem with this proposition is that this virus kills “only” roughly 1%, while chloroquine has loads of side effects (which have been established over decades and are beyond dispute) and cannot just be dished out to lots of people. I know somebody on it (for lupus) and she needs permanent and close monitoring. Also it appears to possibly do anything useful only in fairly early stages, and people at that stage are advised to stay at home, because most of them will recover on their own and there isn’t hospital bed capacity.
There is a huge amount of crap circulating on social media and, in this current dire news every day climate, no shortage of people looking for a magic answer. People are burning down 5G masts because they spread the disease!
No doubt with hindsight it will be concluded that studies should have been done earlier, in fact lots of things should have been done earlier, but this is a new virus which was not seen until very recently. Apparently no commercial lab is able to get hold of a sample of it so e.g. none of the household cleaning agents (e.g. Dettol in the UK) have actually been verified to be effective on it, although common consensus is that they do kill “everything viral” just fine.
Happy to put my faith in Dettol – I use it to swab the card terminal in the shop and to clean stair rails and door handles. So far so good.
China is interesting – reporting zero new cases today.
Of course we are all deeply sceptical of their reporting – well I think the vast majority of us at any rate.
However, one wonders the game they are playing. Even if the fugures have only been massaged only a little, it seems a million miles from what we would expect to see – doesnt it? Maybe a second wave is brewing, but I guess that will be known shortly.
If it isnt, then either the figures are massaged to such an extent that any creditability they have left will be destroyed (do they really think they could hush this up), or the virus is not behaving in the expected way.
What are they playing at, or what is the virus doing?
Fuji_Abound wrote:
What are they playing at, or what is the virus doing?
Same game which got us into this mess. Lies about numbers (the going suspicion is at 40k killed) lies about what is going on but selling billions worth of supply for which they have the quasi monopoly. Nice that they want to help the mess they created but it’s not over before the fat lady sings (if there is one left over to do the honors).
Mooney_Driver Is it really the case that we have so little idea what is going on within China? It seems surprising. I accept it may not be in the public domain, but even in the piblic domain it is I thought we have enough people still there who would say something. It seems pretty difficult to hush up the number of cases they should be seeing?
What are they playing at, or what is the virus doing?
I know this is unusual for me 
but I am fairly optimistic on the future course. As I wrote before, the others died out (practically speaking) without ever achieving herd immunity (including the 1918 one). And this is what viruses do. Obviously this is a circular definition, but once the density in the population goes below a certain level, it collapses because the R number falls below 1. Keep it below 1 for a good few weeks and it will collapse permanently… well until somebody brings over the next one.
The challenge is that you have to do that everywhere and not leave pockets of it around.
On current data, herd immunity would kill of the order of 200k people in each major European country, and quite fast too. It’s not an option. Influenza does about 1/10 of that but doesn’t get in the news because it doesn’t propagate that quick.
I also think much of the economy can be restarted without messing this up. Well, not the London Underground, not ever… and not peak time trains.
LeSving wrote:
Only one problem, the virus is still around, and it has only infected a tiny fraction of the population. You forget that the only reason it is possible to keep it in check, the basic principle behind those graphs, is to isolate people from each other.
You were responding to my post on Europeans visiting us here in the US where there are now nine cases currently in our postal code, up from two. By mid-May or whenever it actually occurs there will be none nearby, happily this is not New York City or Milano. Without going into it yet again, it’s clear to me (as it has been since long before this particular virus came around) that lower population and in particular low population density is a very good thing if you want to enjoy being human while getting along with nature and resources.
Peter wrote:
And this is what viruses do. Obviously this is a circular definition, but once the density in the population goes below a certain level, it collapses because the R number falls below 1. Keep it below 1 for a good few weeks and it will collapse permanently.
Indeed. The main issue is the difficulty and level of economic disruption in doing so, in any given place. The long term answer Is not endless new laws, fines and committees to plan yet more draconian limitations on human behavior. The answer is to listen to the message that nature is currently making quite clear, and over time have about half as many people.
