MedEwok wrote:
This will also affect the public perception of risk, probably already does as we speak.
I think normal reading people can easily find out what the virus situation is, and they act accordingly. Around here now, the risk is practically zero, and everybody act accordingly. Just think about it, acting in any other way is just silliness. Today the situation with tracking and testing is working, and smaller pockets are easily put out without affecting anyone except those who are infected.
Coda wrote:
Great. So we will all be forced into veganism at some point.
Its all a conspiracy theory dont worry about it.
Off_Field wrote:
I read that 40% of the virus deaths in the US are in care homes. I think a lot of must have come from Cuomo sending people still infected back into the care homes in New York.
Yep and he is lauded as the best Democrat Gov by the press. Of course mentioning nursing homes is never on the table. I said this before and Ill say it again this is the biggest political hoax in history. Not that we dont have a disease but the reaction taken to it has been insane.
Let me ask all you smug people whose incomes have not been severely affected by the lockdown, how quickly would you denounce the political actions if you were to lose your income, your lifes savings and your future dreams?
You are not going to stop infections. The idea is to get “herd” immunity while not over stressing the healthcare system. You get and will hot spots. So what!
It will take a long time before the truth behind this disease comes out, if ever if left up to the tech giants.
Regarding the meat processing plants> Time to re-read Upton Sinclair’s The Jungle
And while I am on the re-reading kick Animal Farm, 1984
From here
Blood type
The researchers also found that people with blood type A had a 45 percent increased risk of contracting the coronavirus and developing respiratory failure compared to people with other blood types. On the other hand, people with blood type O had a 35 percent lower risk of developing severe COVID-19 illness.
Just done a DIY test, and I am A minus, so better be extra careful…
Can your model predict the level at which the media will get bored?
:-)
The difficulty is that you still don’t know how badly “you” might be affected. You might be asymptomatic or you might end up on a ventilator. Notwithstanding the statistics on the various health and genetic factors which so strongly feature in the latter group, you just can’t tell.
I agree. There’s a huge difference between what’s acceptable for “society” – hey, it’ll be around for a long while, sadly some people will die – and what’s good for “me” – even if there’s only a 5% chance of catching it and a 0.1% chance of dying as a result, I feel compelled to protect myself. But I think eventually people will just get bored with being careful, and the WW2 attitude of “hey, if it’s got my number on it…” will predominate. But it’ll take a while for that to happen.
I’m at this point 99.9999…% sure I had it in December, and my wife too. But she isn’t convinced, and she is “vulnerable” in a couple of ways, so I am essentially behaving based on her fears. I’ve heard that from other people too.
That outcome may result in the daily infection rate (well, those who get sufficiently seriously ill to go to a hospital) settling down to about 1000/day in the UK, and probably broadly similar numbers in other similar size and similar pop density countries
which will produce deaths at about 50/day which is roughly 1ppm.
The other day I spoke to the petrol station attendants near where I work and despite heavy exposure to passing traffic on the A23, none of them has got ill and none of them knew anybody who has got ill. However, they probably have short term exposures and you need a bit longer. That event shows that you can infect everybody in a group quite easily.
At this level, people will get used to it, but we don’t know how long it will take. I reckon airlines and other dense public transport, will be carrying mostly the young, who were mostly never really bothered, and those who absolutely must travel, for quite a long time. Same for bars and restaurants etc. In the summer, outdoors is probably ok.
Only a vaccine will change this.
The character of this is really odd and I don’t think the research has got close to the real issues yet. Everyone I know from a wide circle who has got ill was either ski scene at the beginning or healthcare worker/admitted to hospital since. Those you would expect to get ill like shop workers seemed to have had no effects. I suspect:
Viral load is a real factor
General public hygiene improvements and stuff like staying home when ill has been a huge factor
Community infection / risk in general public settings like shops and cafes is negligible
Infection control in some settings needs real attention
Closing schools was no real help (and all the current social distancing with kids in them is totally pointless)
I also wonder [totally unscientific] whether there is something in how much ‘reserve’ your body has when you get it – people who are very busy/stressed or heavy drug/alcohol users may go downhill rather fast with this.
Yet isn’t one of the most at risk of death sectors, bus drivers? Like shop workers they are only in close contact with passengers for short periods of time eg as they pay the fare. Most drivers are under 50 years old (I note the average age for hospital admissions in some countries now is under 30). The only areas where bus drivers seem to fit the at risk models are that it is a pretty sedantry occupation and many are BAME.
From some chinese “research” where they tracked who sat on a bus where and who got it, it seems that there is a pretty good air circulation inside a bus, and probably almost everybody in the bus gets exposed.
Whereas the worker in a petrol station is probably not exposed to such a recirculation of stagnant air. He might be if there is an air conditioner running… but people are going in and out all the time so the air gets changed, whereas a bus tends to have all windows shut.
Just a guess, but it seems clear that there are factors in play which are poorly understood. Or if they are understood they are not publicised for public policy reasons (e.g. you could pretty well kill the pub/bar business, except where they can be filled with young people).
heavy drug/alcohol users
That’s an interesting one. Some early questionnaires / surveys asked an amazing number of questions on recreational drug use, but we have not seen this recently. Perhaps because asking questions about illegal stuff is going to produce no response at all. The media have also not mentioned this, but they wouldn’t since – as a community – they are users themselves 
