No doubt Toddler-in-chief is planning a MAGA rally for that day in Houston!
alioth wrote:
The hospitals in Houston expect to run out of ICU space by July 4th.
Just in time for the fireworks… Well, Orange Man isn’t letting us mere mortals into the US anyway, so I’m hoping for the Croatia fly-in…
Wait and see… watch the data not the blab. There is no increase in daily fatalities in Texas so far and the next few weeks will tell. In California (which means mostly the area around Los Angeles in this context) the daily infection rate has been rising markedly for three months while the death rate remains steady or slightly decreasing.
Silvaire wrote:
There is no increase in daily fatalities in Texas so far
The Texas health system hasn’t yet become overwhelmed. If the death rate goes up significantly, it’ll likely be when the health care system hits its limits.
Yep – consistent with the points made below.
The prognosis was not that undertaker capacity will run out on July 4th, but ICU units.
So the death rate would potentially rise thereafter.
At least America is No1 on all C-league tables
;-)
Amendment: Andreas beat me to it…
Correction: some countries have higher numbers per 1 million population (incl. testing )
Yes, the US as a whole is number 9 in terms of fatalities per million population, up from number 12 last time I posted that data. The recent increase in that ranking results from the infection having been grown in Europe before being carried to the US east coast, with an associated time delay.
The current data shows that Europe has had about 180,000 fatalities versus about 125,000 so far in the US.
Has any area in the US run out of ICU capacity since the start of this issue?
Here’s the data for Texas. The total number of Corona Virus deaths in that state since March is equivalent to the deaths in New York State, or Spain or Italy over any two day period in late March to early April. The peak daily fatality rate so far in Texas is about 60 per day, versus about 1000 per day in those other areas.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
The worst was the tripWhy didn’t you go with your Mooney? Too many persons to fit in?
In Germany, two Kreise (districts), Gütersloh and Warendorf, have to re-establish some lockdown measures, following them breaking the limit of 50 new infections per 100,000 population that was agreed by the minister-presidents of the Länder (German states) and the chancellor earlier. A third district, Göttingen, is nearly at the limit as well.
In all three cases, the outbreaks were originally quite localised. Gütersloh is the location of a meat plant where over 1500 employees were infected with SARS-CoV2 in rather short orders. In Göttingen, a muslim community ignored the rules and celebrated a religious festival en masse.
This led the R number to climb significantly above 1 again, now hovering around 2. However, this number is heavily skewed due to these localised outbreaks. 137 districts (out of 400something) in Germany reported not a single new case in the last 7 days.
In Göttingen, a muslim community ignored the rules and celebrated a religious festival en masse.
It will be interesting whether the mass protests in the UK will cause a spike in cases. The problem is that any effect will be hidden, because the participants were mostly young so they will be ok, and it will be their parents who will get ill, so you are looking at two incubation times instead of one, and any effect will disappear in (or will be blamed on) the reduced lockdown announced in the meantime.
Whereas I guess the Göttingen event was a broad range of ages so you would have only one incubation time to see the spike.
Sometimes I read the posts on this thread and get the impression, rightly or wrongly, that people are gloating at someone else’s country’s misfortune. And there seems to be a recurring theme of a country knocking its neighbour’s performance in the crises.
Indeed Ireland is not immune from this with our media almost taking delight in the poor decisions taken in the UK.
But in reality, with the probably exception of New Zealand, not one of our countries have a perfect record on this. Everyone of our governments have serious lessons to learn, and will have to learn them quickly in case there is a second wave.
Many governments failed their elderly, their healthcare workers and their businesses. Just because one country failed worse than our own, doesn’t mean we should be damming of them, but rather we should be focused and what we can do better ourselves if there is a repeat.
Also a word of caution in relation to worldometers charts. At least in the case of Ireland, they should be taken with a note of caution. I note that the graphs, while linking to the official source for daily figures don’t always use the correct daily figures! They are in the right region, and trends seem to be ok, but for some strange reason the daily figures are often a little out.
