Snoopy wrote:
Could be millions of people losing their jobs.
Are you personally affected?
I don’t think that there will be a lasting effect on unemployment levels here in Germany. Before the virus hit, the shortage of skilled workers was so severe that very few companies ever laid people off, even during the 2008/2009 financial crisis. The government supported this with clever measures (“Kurzarbeitergeld”).
Corona will not change this underlying demographic problem. Skilled work will remain in short supply. I’m sure unemployment will rise, maybe significantly, but it will be back to normal as soon as demand picks up again. Covid-19 killing a few thousand skilled employees might even play a role…
As for my personal role: In a full market economy, my pay should rise by at least 500% right now, as I possess the single most valuable skills in this crisis: The ability to treat severe cases of respiratory failure requiring artificial ventilation. But of course, my pay will remain the same. On the upside, it is completely immune to economic effects, should there be any severe downturn in the near future…
In my current business – high end craft spirits (Cotswolds Distillery) wholesale orders started slowing down about 4 weeks ago. In the three little tourist outlets we own in the touristy Cotswolds footfall is down pretty badly. No surprise there. Luckily we have plenty of liquidity.
In terms of how this plays out, I am assuming every country will go through an infection takeoff curve, as it is here in the UK currently. Sooner or later each govt will impose pretty severe social restrictions, and in an few weeks the infection rate will then drop. So far OK. But what happens then is that the virus will still be in the population and as soon as people get antsy and start getting out and about the infection will flare up again. I think it will be like this all through 2020 until we get a vaccine up and running.
I’ve been looking for work flying for some time but this COVID-19 situation looks like it’s gonna be the death blow to my chances at finding meaningful work for quiet some time. Wonderful news since my current employer is laying me off in the near future.
I’m guessing we’ll hear soon about some major bankruptcies in the airline sector.
Absolutely no one knows what will happen here. It is either a short, sharp shock or a much longer damage to global economies. My gut feel is the former but we will have to see. The medical side is less relevant (to this) than the impact on economies of lack of travel, retail etc.
Absolutely. And it’s an arbitrage: do we protect the health of the elderly at the cost of the economic well-being / survival of everyone else. No surprise to which way it’s been settled.
There are two ways this can go.
A severe crackdown on personal freedoms Chinese style and get this over with in a few weeks, or
A drawn out attempt to minimise the peak, but which lasts most of the year.
Personally I think the first would be preferable. Banks, customers, employers, tax authorities ….everyone will make allowances and accommodations when they know things are likely to improve in a few weeks and it’s just a short term blip.
But if it goes on months, people make longer term decisions. Staff get layed off, banks call in loans, tax authorities enforce debts, suppliers cut off supplies and business close down. Patience runs out.
Best to get the pain over with quickly.
There will be at least one predictable winner I think. That’s stay at home mums. Many want to return to the workforce on part time, flexible employment where they can work from home on flexible hours that suit themselves (eg when kids are at school or gone to bed). Many employers weren’t open to such roles preferring in office 9-5 roles. But I think a lot of companies will now be forced to explore working at home options to get through this. Many will find afterwards that they are still open to people working from home now that they have the systems in place and got used to the idea.
denopa wrote:
Absolutely. And it’s an arbitrage: do we protect the health of the elderly at the cost of the economic well-being / survival of everyone else. No surprise to which way it’s been settled.
It’s not just the elderly. Yes it’s mainly the elderly that are dying but the young are still being hospitalised and put on ventilators which can’t be any fun. Even just being isolated for 14 days is hardly a barrel of laughs either if you/re in your 20’s 
There’s an opportunity though for the likes of Netflix, Amazon Prime, Now TV though. A perfect time for them to give a free trial for all those stuck at home, and get people addicted to their service 
If you had a 10 day holiday booked in California at the end of the month, would you go (from Ireland) as things stand now? Genuinely don’t know what to do!
Being in America’s probably one of the better places to be. However I’d almost certainly not go as things are looking at the moment. It’s easier to hole up in your home environment, more to read, fix, etc and work on if you do need to sit tight.
Jujupilote wrote:
Thanks a lot to kwlf and Medewok to help us understand the actual situation, beside the reassuring speeches of our politicians.
Yes, very much so. This kind of information is very helpful! Thanks a lot guys.
dublinpilot wrote:
They’ve just closed all schools, universities and childcare facilities in Ireland until at least 29 March.
There is a big fight about this here. The government wants to avoid this, their reasoning is that if they close the day care centers and schools, kids will end up having to be watched by the grandparents who would then be at an increased risk. In order to avoid that, they are so far only closing schools at which the virus has been diagnosed.
What I do notice is that people are really careful. Our kid went to its day care today and I went to pick her up. Desinfection fluids available at the entrance and EVERYONE uses them. People keep their distance too. The chief caretaker I talked to today sais the kids in the day care in this season have never been healthier as everyone now really is spooked and uses hygiene they should use also during flu season. Our small one (3 years) also insists on washing her hands at every occasion, they do a really good job telling them why and how. So far, I also see this at the airport and the office.
