Yes; interesting developments. The UK regs have been too complex to understand. However, there is very little enforcement of anything below the level of huge parties.
Small islands have always found this easier, especially if they either have no significant tourism or can afford to go without it for a while. IIRC, practically all of the early cases in Iceland were from skiers returning from the Alps, and same for the Czech Rep.
Re the UK, We are getting a lot of nasty politicising of the localised lockdowns. I suppose localised lockdowns – which are entirely logical, since quite obviously most of the land area of any country has very low numbers – were always going to be a political hot potato; people are generally happier if everybody else is in the same sh*it as they are even if it achieves nothing. Lenin implemented this correctly and really ought to replace the present “leader” of Manchester (notwithstanding the similar ideology), though credit goes to Marx for developing the proper theoretical underpinning without which capitalism would have driven the world to destruction.
A couple of bits of news from the UK.
One is that “young people” are finally getting scared of the virus and are partying/socialising less, which is reducing new infections, with a downstream impact on infections among the older people. In due course this should reduce how many need hospital care, or worse. It appears that the news reports of long term effects (which seem to happen even to the young and even to those who never got a serious illness) are worrying many people.
Another is that hospital fatality rate is down from 25% to 8%, due largely to improved treatments.
Mooney_Driver wrote:
I am type A, so I know that if I get it, chances are very bad.
If you get it, chances are the same as with any other AB0 blood type. Severity of the disease does not significantly change with blood type.
Chances that you get it are about 50% higher than for someone with blood type 0 and about 50% than for someone with blood type AB. So depending on personality you can either be sad or happy?
Noteworthy to mention that the behavior factors (wearing masks, distancing, staying away from gatherings, etc.) change the risk by multiple 1000%s. So it is pretty simple to (over-)compensate any biology related risk by clever behavior.
Plus: The obvious statistical caveat needs to be applied:
“50% higher risk” sounds quite bad – but the very same fact sounds much less dramatic, if one states that instead of 5/100.000 there are 7.5/100.000 hospitalized.
If you don’t catch it, you won’t get ill with it 
So the blood type is relevant to getting ill with it.
I agree that one has a lot of control over the chances of catching it, however. The procedure is fairly obvious, after all, although most “ordinary” workers don’t get much choice if working in an environment with other people nearby…
Malibuflyer wrote:
Noteworthy to mention that the behavior factors (wearing masks, distancing, staying away from gatherings, etc.) change the risk by multiple 1000%s. So it is pretty simple to (over-)compensate any biology related risk by clever behavior.
I guess that is THE one issue we are all fighting with. And while I have been on the forefront of demanding strict adherence to this, I have out of circumstances also done things I should have avoided, such as travelling and during summer seeing people I was not supposed to see, but all in all, I am trying very hard to do what I can to stay away from it.
Thanks for the explanation about the 50% risk and putting it into perspective. The article I had read had turned the Graz study into saying that anyone other than blood type 0 has a much higher risk of severe cases. Quite a difference.
The main reason why people quite often are more comfortable with stricter regimes and restrictions may well be that it puts an end to temptation to do stupid things. All people by now know what should be avoided, but like with chocolate cakes for the obese or smoking, it does not work without strict legal rules to keep people really from falling into behavioral traps. If you can pull the law on people who see things more relaxed, chances are that finally really everyone will wear the darn masks and stay t.f. at home if not needed to go out.
Here in Germany – as elsewhere – the second wave is now in full swing. The advantage we had in the first wave, compared to most Western countries, seems to have been squandered. This is mainly down to increasing carelessness. People are meeting too much and too many different people.
I always thought @Mooney_Driver was a bit too pessimistic about this pandemic, and while I still think there is no need for painting apocalyptic scenarios, I am now more certain than before that this pandemic will massively influence our daily lives for at least two more years and the loss of live and economic damage will be significant. Several vaccines will be approved soon, but they will not – like many seem to think – end the pandemic in a heartbeat. It will take years to vaccinate everyone and the vaccine will most likely not provide full protection from infection.
I always thought @Mooney_Driver was a bit too pessimistic about this pandemic, and while I still think there is no need for painting apocalyptic scenarios, I am now more certain than before that this pandemic will massively influence our daily lives for at least two more years and the loss of live and economic damage will be significant.
Well I hate to be right with this. But I think unfortunately it has exceeded even my expectations. You are very right though that the main reason for this is carelessness a d egoism as well as sheer stupidity.
It is "funny " to see that many who called me names elsewhere for demanding lockdown a d restrictions are now quiet or disappear totally. I unfortunately am sure because I knew out of experience that people in our democratic society are incapable to restrict themselves in any significant way. Switzerland has now become the worst hotspot in Europe. And recommendations don’t work as the examples show… if a shopping centre here finds it appropriate to host a jubilee event including stampede for lottery tickets and thousands of people crowding together, it proves to me that the only thing that has any chance of having any effect are strict lockdown and fear of fines or worse for those who don’t follow.
That is sad, as it proves that our western democracy is simply not suited to withstand crises where self restraint and discippline are the only thing which works.
our western democracy is simply not suited to withstand crises where self restraint and discippline are the only thing which works.
I agree with that – that’s clear everywhere because people are bored with this whole thing now.
However that’s not the same argument as locking down the whole country, which is clearly excessive given that most of the land area of any country in Europe has a very low population density.
And it is partial lockdowns which have enabled political dissent to get started, which local politicians in those regions have cynically exploited. And once people see a split in the authority, they drive a wedge into it. Anyone has small children? If the parents don’t present a united front on how many ice creams are allowed each day…?
Mooney_Driver wrote:
That is sad, as it proves that our western democracy is simply not suited to withstand crises where self restraint and discippline are the only thing which works.
I don’t think it is a fault of Western Democracy per se. Rather, it is a paradox result of the enduring success of Western Democracy: For about 70 years, most people in the West lived in peace and – compared to all other parts of the world – prosperity. Nobody is used to the hardships of war, scarcity or crisis anymore. Individualism was heavily promoted over collectivism, in the Cold War and since 1990 for economic reason. Egotism is almost the part of our “ideology”, because our capitalist economy heavily depends on creating and fueling a climate where everybody gets their supposed “wishes and desires” fulfilled…through consumption.
While this is not much of a problem in “peace” times, if we disregard the ecological impact of this ideology, it is a problem in times of crisis. Because there is no discipline, no regard for society at large, no willingness to accept restrictions to the individual wishes for the greater good.
MedEwok wrote:
Because there is no discipline, no regard for society at large, no willingness to accept restrictions to the individual wishes for the greater good.
An impressive piece @medwork.
I would add another part. The I am Alright Jack mentality. These restrictions are acceptable to most if the gold plated 3.5k per month pension cheque arrives into the bank on time. The furloughed lot get their 2.5k per month to save up for another Kia Sportage 20 plate. All of this does not affect ’’me’’.
The issue is that the majority of the populations are effectively left destitute. No Job, no money, no future.
It is therefore very difficult to self discipline, to accept house arrest, movement restriction, when the kids are hungry.
BeechBaby wrote:
It is therefore very difficult to self discipline, to accept house arrest, movement restriction, when the kids are hungry.
Exactly. Government employees (direct and indirect) and the retired elite are seemingly hell bent on destroying society to save it from itself, for themselves. With the growth of government and the simultaneous growth of the retired population, the situation has becoming alarming in its inappropriate dominance of society.
