Peter wrote:
It is clear that countrywide lockdowns were never right; they should always have been localised.
I actually do not think that is that clear! It depends heavily on the situation and the overall structure of the society.
If every single citizen behaves rationally, obviously local lockdowns are much better. but they don’t. Nationwide lockdowns have one clear advantage: Everyone understands at least what they are supposed to do. Therefore there is some reason to believe, that compliance with a nationwide lockdown could be much better than compliance with local regulations.
In Germany we see exactly that challenge: Everything by constitution is regional as the regulation authority for most pandemic measure is within the federal states. Unfortunately that leads to “hard to understand” situations like that people from cologne are allowed to travel to mainz, but people from Mainz are not allowed to travel to cologne (or the other way round – don’t know). People from Frankfurt have to cancel there fall vacation in the Bavarian alps – but if you live just 30 km east of Frankfurt such a trip is not a problem at all (even though case numbers a re higher in your area).
People actually pay up to 250 EUR if they are on public places in Nurnberg w/o a mask but nothing if they do the same thing in Berlin (where the case numbers are actually higher).
People don’t understand that and unfortunately many people start to believe “if politicians can’t even agree on measures, they can’t be that important” and hence do nothing!
Therefore a countrywide lockdown is a stupid idea win countries where every single citizen always acts rationally – but can be a great idea in all other countries!
As part of my work, I meet people of all walks of life, every day. And let me tell you that a frighteningly large number of them are not able to take care of themselves, much less make decisions that can effect a large number of people
Overall I agree. My caveats: I don’t think we always meet people at their best, and when I worked in A&E we saw a group of people who were self-selecting in a different way. Everybody comes to the emergency department sooner or later, but some come much more often than others. There is a need for clear and simple guidance, not to mention research on what the guidance should be. Then there is the separate question of how much of it should be mandated.
Locally we have had more cases in the past few weeks than we had in the first half of lockdown. This is largely due to a single party that the students had after coming back to university. Amazingly (to me, given how students inevitably behave) the university seems to have stamped it out. Time will tell, but touchwood they are on top of it. I live in a rural area but we did better during the first round in part because of a local track and trace system which seems to have been more effective than the national one. We have had a second, hitherto smaller outbreak in the hospital. We will see how that one goes over the course of this coming week.
My partner is currently in Germany as a freelance orchestral musician in an orchestra with musicians from all over Europe. Compared to anything we would be capable of arranging in the UK, they are being remarkably thoughtful about how they are conducting rehearsals and COVID tests. I don’t know what they will do for the audience – it will be televised though.
It seems clear that authorities can make a difference, even outside of places like New Zealand that have geography strongly in their favour. And that economically it can be an enabler – there is no way that my partner would be doing similar work in the UK at the moment.
People wonder why the measures taken to stop the spread of this virus seems not to be efficient. Well we should think about the fact that AIDS has been propagating for decades although the measures for avoiding this one are fare easier to apply, and it is a much more deadly virus! In short, relying on population to behave one way or another to fight a virus is unlikely to work…
On a related topic, can anyone suggest which of these masks is the best one
When we’re talking FFP3 masks, the answer is whichever one has the best seal to your face. This tends to be quite personal and at work we have fitting sessions to find which one has the best seal.
@LeSving apparently the COVID viruses slowly attenuate their effect, it is not in their interests to kill the hosts, so the morbidity/mortality of this strain should reduce, but not to zero.
This is not inevitable: there is a theory that HIV was for many years an indolent virus that people could live with for decades. As it came to infect new populations who changed sexual partners more frequently, the selection pressure favoured variants of the virus that reproduced more aggressively and killed their hosts sooner.
@kwlf I was talking of the COVID family, apparently they exhibit this behaviour. HIV is very different.
When we’re talking FFP3 masks, the answer is whichever one has the best seal to your face. This tends to be quite personal and at work we have fitting sessions to find which one has the best seal.
Thanks. I will get some of each. Funnily enough the bottom two got sold out this morning…
The interesting question is rather why there have been such large differences between different countries with lockdown.
It seems obvious that small things make a big difference.
It’s not so much variation between countries as variations between regions of Europe.
Peter wrote:
variation in civil obedience
variation in population density
age profile
how much boozing / socialising they do
wealth correlates heavily (inversely) with all the other vulnerability factors so rich areas do a lot better
lots of details e.g. low income people go to supermarkets whereas higher income people get food delivered (better quality more expensive food)It seems obvious that small things make a big difference.
It’s not so much variation between countries as variations between regions of Europe.
I agree with all of this. Especially the last point. And, regarding that: The fact that the virus hit N. Italy so badly, which is still one of the wealthiest regions in the EU, was quite a shock. The health system there got overwhelmed despite being normally quite capable, no less than in affluent areas of Germany, France or the UK.
I was talking of the COVID family, apparently they exhibit this behaviour. HIV is very different.
Yes, they are very different but the evolutionary principles are similar. Scarlet fever and polio would be other examples of diseases that have changed in severity due to evolutionary pressures. It may be likely that COVID will become less severe, but this is at least in part related to our response to the pandemic and whether or not we maintain long-term immunity.
which is still one of the wealthiest regions in the EU
That surprises me… AIUI the factors in N Italy were
From what I have seen of that part of Italy I would not describe it as wealthy. Quite industrial, high density living, and lots of old people barely walking. Just like the poor parts of the UK actually, except for the smoking.
Cervinia opened on 24th October and closed by govt decree 26th October (ref: their website) so it doesn’t look good for skiing in Italy.
BTW I’ve just read that ischgl (Austria) had 6000 infections traced to it
