Off_Field wrote:
Are there any surveys that show masks as I seem to see them being used (used repeatedly, not washed correctly and not handled correctly, etc) actually help at all?
The only scientific data I’m aware of was in relation to flu, conducted in Vietnam. As I remember, the results were that if people washed their masks daily in 60 C water they had some effect, otherwise they had no effect and arguably had a negative effect. Obviously flu is not COVID and there may be other data, but I don’t believe for one minute that (regardless of efficacy, good or not) governments implemented mask policies for any reason other than as a symbol. Symbols, shame and social pressure are very powerful tools in controlling the behavior of large masses of people.
Silvaire wrote:
Florida provides a good example, all state restrictions were lifted a month ago.
That is an interesting graph, Silvaire. What I meant was wheter economic activity would resume to “normal” without restrictions. Do you have any idea how it developed in Florida, to stay with your example? Obviously, economic activity is harder to measure than Covid-19 cases on this timescale.
Yes, masks are the quintessential symbol.
We don’t were masks here, but on public flights we have to. This came about as follows:
The planes that still were flying, Widerøe to a large degree, were getting increasingly crowded. People started taking pictures, posting them on social media with titles as “Corona traps” etc.
The government (wanting to be re-elected) had to react to the cries of “irresponsibility”. What they originally did was to restrict the seats. Only every other seat could be occupied. This caused Widerøe to go ballistic. A 737 from SAS or NAS have 6 person on each row, and therefore can be filled with 4 persons while still maintaining the “proper social distance”. Widerøe with their Dash 8 and E190 only has 4 persons in a row, this can only be filled with 2. SAS/NAS could fill up 2/3 while Widerøe could only fill up 1/2.
In came the masks, and everybody is flying happily in crowded airplanes while being “responsible”. Do the masks work? Who knows. They certainly worked well for Widerøe 
MedEwok wrote:
What I meant was wheter economic activity would resume to “normal” without restrictions. Do you have any idea how it developed in Florida, to stay with your example? Obviously, economic activity is harder to measure than Covid-19 cases on this timescale.
Based on my observation in my area and given a largely common culture, I would think ‘vulnerable’ people remain careful in Florida, as you’ve suggested. People learn from experience. That would have a residual effect on economic activity for those businesses that were closed and now open.
Silvaire wrote:
The only scientific data I’m aware of was in relation to flu, conducted in Vietnam. As I remember, the results were that if people washed their masks daily in 60 C water they had some effect, otherwise they had no effect and arguably had a negative effect.
In that case you might want to make yourself familiar with the actual scientific evidence on mask with Corona in Europe and US. See e.g.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30352-0/fulltext and https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext
All of this refers to observational studies of what mask actually do in real life as they are used today – nothing about “they have no or even negative effect if not washed daily in 60C”. Negative effects of masks (beyond individual cases of local contact allergies on the material or washing agents) are a myth with no scientific evidence.
As said in an earlier case: One could argue if there is a business case for paying masks for an entire population if on the lower end of the confidence interval the reduction in infection rate is only 5%- reason for that is that the confidence interval is quite wide because of lack of controlled sample group studies. But one can’t deny based on all available scientific evidence that masks are actually reducing infections and therefore safe lifes!
LeSving wrote:
In came the masks, and everybody is flying happily in crowded airplanes while being “responsible”. Do the masks work? Who knows. They certainly worked well for Widerøe
That is the logic according to SAGE. The at arms-length puppet of the WHO. It is total madness but in a rush of Virtue Signalling only a small percentage of us actually care and question these folly strategies. But then we are the enemy, the Cov-Idiots….I am way past caring about any of it frankly.
If you read the papers linked by @Malibuflyer, and I have, you may come to the conclusion that they aren’t very helpful in scientific terms.
Yep, Macaroon has done it, a month of lockdown…
Last time there was rioting in certain expected parts of Paris after a month… those areas have already been under curfew for 2 weeks. There are already certain tensions ongoing right now. I dont think the population will be as compliant as last time, but we will see.
Regards, SD..
PS : wrt masks, France has been a proponent of mask wearing since the beginning. Not convinced that using a manky piece of cloth stuffed in your back pocket is the magic shield that many think it is…
This Daily Trash article is quite interesting as an overview, mentioning an experiment in Russia (which is IMHO valuable only as a single data point) and other stuff.
I am really quite sure that masks are effective. It is only one small component though, of many…
Just been reading about France. However, I am told that people basically went about their life as if nothing was happening – in Paris at least. Packed buses, etc. I am surprised they didn’t go for regional lockdowns like the UK has done. But then I never saw a good map of the infections in France; I don’t think they have one.
Totally way off conspiracy theory posts moved to the usual thread. Feel free to debate it there.
In terms of overall policy I have reflected for a while now.
I hear those who place the economy as key, and I hear those who argue the life case.
I have concluded both are wrong.
If this virus had a mortality of say 10% across the board, I have no doubt people would be dieing in their beds at home en masse, the economy in the terms we know would collapse and there would be no alternative but that most would never reach hospital.
It could be said therefore this virus is especially annoying and challenging. The mortality rate is such that the virus can be controlled without our health services collapsing. It is this that is driving our response. The politicians know that a point cannot be reached were large numbers of people who should be hosipitalised are dieing at home, whatever their age. The press know it and would slauter them, the politicians know it, and the opposition knows this is the territory where any Government would fall regardless of their majority. For that reason I believe it cannot and will not be allowed to happen.
Some governments will test the boundaries and approach the rubicon. I believe that is a very dangerous course, because if they are wrong severe lock downs will be forced upon them for the reason above, the lock down will be longer and harder and the political fallout more severe. It is a road to disaster if you misjudge, and even a quicker road to disaster.
As for the economy, for the reasons I have suggested the economy will be forced to take second place. Moreover, if all governments essentially follow the same course, every economy will suffer more or less equally. Inevitably governments will print more money (or should I say quantitatevely ease) and inevitably some individuals will end up richer and some poorer. The Government depending on their degree of socialism and alturism will launch various packages to assist to varying degrees those that have suffered more by bunging them some of the extra money they have printed and the economy will lurch on after this is all over.
For that reason here in the UK we have made two really big mistakes, and only two that matter. The first lockdown should have been three weeks or so earlier. We knew what was coming but chose to delay. Unforgivebale – it probably cost over 20,000 lives and the lockdown came as inevitably as it did without any benefit of hindsight. The second in the UK was not to lock down again two or three weeks ago. There are the same signs of inevitability and the experiment of regional restrictions will probably not work. Probably most western european economies will be forced to follow the same path sooner rather than later. It is possible, just possible we will learch through a series of spreading regional lockdowns, and, I guess just possible this will kepp the virus in check, but it is a new experiment and I am far from convinced the cost will be less.
The vaccine will be along on the Christmas shoulder and will probably be in time to prevent another Spring or Janaury lockdown, although that may be touch and go.
We know a full lockdown is just about the only proven measure when infections levels are high of bring the R rate back to a reasonable level, from which it will then again gorw.
We know that delaying a lockdown when it should be enforced only means the consequences of a susbsequent lockdown will be more grave because of the time it takes to work people infected and with serious complications through the system.
It is an experiment where other players will I suspect follow the course of a lock down as we are already seeing in France. There is a huge danger standing apart from the pack, the collective wisdom. The Government here must be very very certain standing apart from the pack is survivable – if it goes wrong I doubt very much it will be survivable politically, and of course as we all know it is so engrained in a good politician that their political survival is the only thing that matters, that I suspect they will be unwilling to press this one too far.
I hope I am wrong, but herein the UK I think we are staring at a repeat of the Spring.
I also dont think anything else matters in terms of the science. The science at the momement hinges on herd vaccine immunity. New drugs will not come fast enough now to make a difference in the short term, the viruses course can only be changed by lockdowns and a vaccine, and here in the UK, and I suspect most of Europe, the politicans must follow the only course we know that prevents the health system collapsing. Anything else is an experiment, which had better work!
I cant help feel sometimes we over complicate.
