kwlf wrote:
If the mink variant does cause problems, will we hear the same clamour against mink farming that we heard against wet markets?
There’s nothing inherently wrong with wet markets – we have them in Europe, too, and they are common in Europe. It’s not that it was a wet market, it was that it was a market dealing with wildlife of unknown origin and the extremely unhygienic conditions.
“An antibody survey in May concluded that 38.5% of Bergamo’s population had been infected by the virus in the spring, among the highest levels anywhere in the world.
Now, Bergamo is recording around 21 new virus cases a day for every 100,000 residents, compared with 47 across Italy on average, and 103 in Milan, according to official data."
Doubtless there will be a model; with rising numbers having had the virus how does the rate of infection respond.
Clearly there isnt a magic number at which herd immunity just kicks in.
All these antibody surveys are rather misleading.
1. there will be those whose antibodies have faded away after a few months to undetectable levels.
Does this matter? Well who knows given that all antibodies of any virus decay away after some time: some longer than others. What matters if they do is whether the Memory B cells can re-create the anti-bodies if the human re-encounters the virus again.
So a person survey for antibodies a few months after they has the virus may well return a null result
So you are under counting here all those who had the virus a few months ago – that’s a lot.
2. Even more will be those, particularly the young, for whom the virus is no more than a mild winter’s cold – or even totally asymptomatic. These people will most likely have a strong T-cell response being the immune system’s first line of defence. If their T cells can kill the virus dead then there will be no need for the adaptive part of the immune system (The antibodies) to be called into action and ride to the rescue.
So any A.B survey of these people will record a null result at any time even immediately after having the virus
I reckon this number will be rather large indeed: – and I suspect I’m one of them from the strange symptoms encountered in March
3. Then finally there will be those who are genuinely immune to it – their genetic make up means that they cannot catch it.
I suspect partial genetic immunity in the population accounts for the mysteriously low death rates in the Far East. Their populations might, as a result of exposure to other diseases generations ago, have some from of immunity.
It is likewise claimed that Europeans have a mild immunity or rather enhanced resistance to HIV as a result of DNA mutation introduced into us by our encounters with smallpox around 2000 years ago.
What this all means for immunity and the risk of catching it again in a few months/year or even of catching it again mildly and possibly being non infectious – who knows……
Long term
I reckon we are seeing the birth of a new annual common cold variant: it is now endemic through out the entire world and is not going away – ever
In the absence of a full sterilizing vaccine against it…….
Those whose DNA make makes them susceptible to suffering badly from it will errrr die off and those who can bat it away will survive and prosper.
In due course their descendants will carry forward the anti-covid gene meaning that to them it will just be another version of the winters cold
The Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) is defined as HIT = 1 – 1/R see e.g. here .
Back in the February/March, when R was estimated at 2.6, that gave HIT = 60%, which now seems to have acquired the status of a ‘magic number’.
Even with pre-lockdown ‘social distancing’, and bans on mass gatherings, R=1.6 might be more plausible, giving HIT = 40%.
And as I have argued before, areas hit hard in the first wave may have a kind of ‘layered immunity’ where those most exposed by their day-to-day activities have higher immunity rates than those who are not. E.g. current London hospital admissions are only 20% higher than the South West of England, despite having four times the population. That may change, of course…
Pim5 wrote:
Those whose DNA make makes them susceptible to suffering badly from it will errrr die off and those who can bat it away will survive and prosper.
In due course their descendants will carry forward the anti-covid gene meaning that to them it will just be another version of the winters cold
Lovely… and that means in numbers? 10%? 20% or how many of humans will just die off? just to know the odds…
Actually, the population of London is more like twice the population of South West England, but I guess the basic point remains valid.
The south west has a problem in having very little hospital capacity.
News ttoday is that arrivals from Denmark are banned and not just have to sit out the 2 week quarantine.
The quarantine was not being enforced anyway, practically speaking. I have heard reports that if they can’t get you on the phone, the police come round, but if you make sure you pop out for only a short time, say 1hr, and your phone is turned off then, you get away with it. Plus there are various get-outs e.g. going food shopping.
With a bit of luck things are levelling off in the UK, and this started before the current lockdown
And in the South West of the UK (Devon) the whole area only has 4 active cases. Governments don’t understand the damage they are doing as they have effectively shut down the healthcare service and turned it into a COVID only service. See below:-
Yesterday, Shelley Tasker – a healthcare assistant at Treliske hospital in Cornwall – featured in a viral Facebook video showing her telling members of the public outside Truro Cathedral what is really going on behind closed doors in NHS hospitals. She announced:
Today I am publicly resigning OK? I am wearing this uniform sadly for the last time. I absolutely loved my job, those of you who have been following what’s going on, we’ve done tasks, we’ve organised protests, I’ve had a lot of flack.
We’re at the point now it’s all coming back to me. I’ve had an email from work last night asking me what’s going on, people are reporting me and unfortunately I can’t lie any more.
I did something really bad. I took a screenshot on Friday which shows the figures of how many people are in Treliske hospital with Covid and I shared it, because this should be public information.
Lots of people have to start speaking out, there’s lot of doctors and nurses who have come forward. They’re all on restrictive duties, they’re all seeing solicitors etc. I’ve decided there’s no point, I have gone against the rules of the NHS and have shared confidential information that people need to see.
“We no longer have health care, we can’t see dentists. I can tell you now when I was working at the height of the pandemic I had no work for three weeks because there were no patients. We have a particular Covid ward. None of the wards were overflowing with Covid patients and they’re not now.”
She went on to claim that the flu and Covid cases are now recorded as “the same thing” on death certificates.
In response to cheers from the crowd, she continues: “I can tell you on Friday in Treliske there were three people in with Covid. No extra deaths, three – and that covers Treliske, West Cornwall and Hayle hospital.”
“The total deaths from these three hospitals in seven months, is 76 people – that’s about 10 people a month over the last seven months, and we have locked down.”
NHS figures show that 67 people died from COVID-19 at Treliske hospital between March and September, and official data seems to back up her point – there were just four people with the virus receiving care at the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust on October 29th.
Indeed; current England shutdown has been driven by politics of envy.
