alioth wrote:
In terms of infections per million in Europe, countries that are doing worse than the UK (excluding microstates):Czechia: 85k per million
Slovenia: 73.5k per million
Lithuania: 64k per million
Belgium: 58.5k per million
Switzerland: 58k per million
Portugal: 57k per million
Croatia: 55k per million
Netherlands: 54k per million
Sweden: 53.5k per million
Spain: 51.5k per millionversus the UK, at 51k per million.
In this context Slovenia and Croatia are microstates (total population 2 and 4 million respectively). So whatever happens here is practically irrelevant for the rest of Europe because absolute numbers are very low comparing to serious countries. Simply, the pool for mutations is too shallow.
Emir wrote:
In this context Slovenia and Croatia are microstates (total population 2 and 4 million respectively).
And both Norway and Denmark have ~5 million population, New Zealand (that beacon of “how it should be done” has ~4 million…
Where do you draw the line?
Just Sayin’… 
Czechia has a population of 11 million so is far from a microstate. England is about 56 million, so five times the size.
European countries would find it almost impossible to effectiviely close their boarders, so to some extent arent far short being considered as one continental mass, whereas island states have more options.
At age almost 80, and likely to be vaccinated in the next few weeks, I think that those who must come in contact with many people indoors should have priority over me.
Shopworkers, bus and taxi drivers, etc, immediately after health and care workers.
My only contact risk is food shopping.
It’s now suggested in Scotland we should foodshop only once a week. That would affect the quality of my diet compared to three times as at present.
Maoraigh wrote:
It’s now suggested in Scotland we should foodshop only once a week. That would affect the quality of my diet compared to three times as at present.
Can I suggest a fridge? 
and if you like ice cream a freezer.
My Aunts never had a fridge or freezer. Ice cream (Walls, birck of) was collected from the corner shop, wrapped in multiple layers of paper and kept for a few hours, milk was stood in a bowl of cold water, delivered every day fresh by the milkman and lasted until the next day even in high summer. They didnt use the ice well to kepe them going through the Summer months anymore after they passed into their 70s, but fresh fire were set to every day without fail in the sitting room, study, kitchen and each bedroom. There was still occasionally ice on the windows by the morning.
New variant 1.3x more likely to land you in hospital / kill you.
Most would be suprised to find 150 stupid people in one place but here’s another 150 stupid people so clearly it is possible That’s 300 people, of whom perhaps several dozen will end up in hospital and a fair few will die. The fines issued were derisory. They should have fined every adult among the 300.
That would affect the quality of my diet compared to three times as at present.
Are there no fresh fruit/veg deliveries up there? Here we have Riverford; once a week we get a big delivery and it goes into the +5C compartment in the fridge.
Also farm shops are much safer than a supermarket, due to fewer people, and they tend to be different people who – from what I see here – are being far more careful.
At age almost 80, and likely to be vaccinated in the next few weeks, I think that those who must come in contact with many people indoors should have priority over me.
You’re old enough to be at risk and fit enough to have something to lose. You could also fill a hospital bed for month or two if you get properly sick, and probably deprive someone else of treatment whilst you’re doing it. Don’t feel guilty.
Peter wrote:
New variant 1.3x more likely to land you in hospital / kill you.Most would be suprised to find 150 stupid people in one place but here’s another 150 stupid people so clearly it is possible That’s 300 people, of whom perhaps several dozen will end up in hospital and a fair few will die. The fines issued were derisory. They should have fined every adult among the 300.
That would affect the quality of my diet compared to three times as at present.Are there no fresh fruit/veg deliveries up there? Here we have Riverford; once a week we get a big delivery and it goes into the +5C compartment in the fridge.
Also farm shops are much safer than a supermarket, due to fewer people, and they tend to be different people who – from what I see here – are being far more careful.
It s interesting, and I agree with you.
However, it would seem from an earlier post here perhaps the French are going a different way.
I have no doubt that out of the 150 people a fiar few would be over 50.
However, at a typical rave, maybe there would be no one over 40. Of those the chnaces of anyone ending up in hospital, let alone dieing, is incredibly small. Of course I understand the collateral mix if attendees then mix with other people who are older, or older family members. Theoretically if they were all young adults who kept away from older parents, relatives, etc then they almost certainly place no extra pressure on the health service and are barely at more risk that during a typical flu season, in fact maybe less at risk statistically.
The fact they cannot be relied upon to not spread the virus into the wider community is I understand part of the reason why France’s approach may be dangerous, the more so in France where families tend to be even closer knit than in the UK. In some of our ethinic communities this would be a disasterous policy, because families of several generations often live in the same house.
The german Professor Drosten is saying in a Spiegel Interview that he is very much concerned about a huge, massive and uncontrollable wave starting in spring and summer this year if measures are relaxed too early following vaccinating most of the old age risk group. If I understand this correctly, he predicts up to 100k new infections daily in Germany. He also points out that we are very far away from a solution to the general problem, as it is not yet clear how well the vaccines work with the new variants. Apparently, the British version is less of a concern in that regard (vaccinations) whereas there are very bad news from Brazil, where the vaccination they use there (Chinese) has proven only around 50% working… so it is pretty much useless.
According to him, a relaxation can only be expected earliest in fall 2021 if the vaccination rate continues as it does and then only if no new variants which are resistant to the vaccines appear. This apparently has already happened in Brazil, so even fall 2021 is now optimistic.
Personally I would not expect any relaxation of lockdown measures this year at all, instead they must be intensified and strictly kept with the clear goal of reducing the spread of the virus to ZERO. This would also mean to shut down airline and other public transport such as cross border trains for the forseeable future. Anything else will keep us going on this thing for much of our remaining lifetime.
If Drosten is right, and so far he has been more right than wrong, we may well see a total collapse this summer when the virus will totally break through and infect just about everyone who has not had a vaccine till then. And the way vaccinations are going, that will be less than 25% of the population. So I guess the big cataclysm of Covid is still before us.
I was about to post about that same interview, but Mooney_Driver beat me to it.
I find the rapidly rising case numbers in summer very believable. The elderly will have been vaccinated by then and the government will come under huge pressure to ease restrictions, or more likely young people will simply ignore them en masse. The virus will probably be even more contagious by then through mutations, and there will still be tens of millions of Germans without immunity (natural or through vaccine) by then. If they all go about their lives as they would want to / as before Covid-19, then numbers of 100k infected/day or more are very plausible.
Still, around 2% of all infected adults, even those under 60, need an intensive care bed, and many more need a normal inpatient bed in hospital. With these numbers, the hospitals would get overwhelmed in days, not weeks.
It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, innit?
