In your 10.5K you’re most probably counting people who would have died of another cause/pathogen
I discussed that. For the sake of argument if 1/100 people has COVID (we don’t know the true prevalence but it is much less than 50%) and 1/2 people who dies has COVID then it seems likely that COVID is in some way related to the deaths of most of the 50% of people dying with the disease.
But we have no hard data on who is carrying the virus. So any estimations based on it are, at least for me, not convincing.
Can we persuade me with just numbers of exerces mortality?
Hubei/Wuhan are now lifting travel restrictions from Mar25/Apr8 after two months of quarantine
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/asia/coronavirus-wuhan-lockdown-lifted-intl-hnk/index.html
The catch people need medical certificate of non-infection or rely on predictions from QR code app
Also good news for Italy & France, the number of recovered just barely exceeded the number of deaths and now sits around 10% of those tested & infected, this is the only “slowdown indicator” given that no one has a clue of number of infections…
Can we persuade me with just numbers of exerces mortality?
Probably not, as I fear you’re unpersuadable.
EU population is 500 million. Italian population is 60 million.
60/500*12K suggests that Italy’s fair share of EU deaths should be 1.4K. Let’s up that to 2K because of the older population.
Over the past 7 days there have been 601 + 653 + 793 + 627 + 427 + 475 + 345 = 3921 deaths attributed to COVID-19, plus however many deaths were due to other causes.
So why a lock down and a globally induced panic?
Perhaps because
kwlf wrote:
Probably not, as I fear you’re unpersuadable.
:-) Appreciate your comments and contribution with numbers, thanks.
Peter wrote:
Perhaps because this thing propagates really fast, and kills a large % of people it infects in modern society it is politically (and arguably morally) impossible to let a big % of people die even if many would have died soon anyway many dying are still productive, or have money which they are still spending in modern society a large % are in poor health (regardless of age) and would die or be permanently affected there is mayhem in the hospitals because they don’t have the capability for this particular type of “injury”, by a factor of 10 to 100, if nothing is done to slow it down
I think if I had to single out one aspect, the answer is we cant allow our public health services to collapse – that would be unacceptable – and to that, at the moment, we have no better answer that what we are doing. You simply cannot have people dieing on the streets and in their homes in a Western democracy, or even for that matter in hangars and other temporary triarge facilities.
In some ways perhaps the Chinese had the right idea (and the ability) to construct such a large hosipital so quickly, so that they could keep up with the number of patients. I suspect it would almost be politically acceptable to have more people in hospital, if the hospitals had the capacity, but they dont.
Peter wrote
Perhaps because
this thing propagates really fast, and kills a large % of people it infects………NOT PROVEN
in modern society it is politically (and arguably morally) impossible to let a big % of people die even if many would have died soon anyway….. AGAIN NOT PROVEN THAT EVERY DEATH IS RELATED TO CORONAVIRUS.
many dying are still productive, or have money which they are still spending……..WHERE ARE THEY SPENDING IT IN TOTAL LOCK DOWN?
in modern society a large % are in poor health (regardless of age) and would die or be permanently affected……….SORRY DO OT QUITE GET THIS POINT.
there is mayhem in the hospitals because they don’t have the capability for this particular type of “injury”, by a factor of 10 to 100, if nothing is done to slow it down……AGREED BUT AT THE MOMENT IN UK AND U.S. THEY DO NOT EVEN HAVE THE KIT NOR EQUIPMENT TO HANDLE ANY OF IT? WHERE DID THE BILLIONS GO…PENSIONS AND SALARIES FOR THE TRUST EXECUTIVES AND THE EXPERTS?
Whilst I am on there has been ZERO payments of salaries, payment to self employed, nor any assistance via Universal Credit. They are currently looking at the END OF APRIL by which time economically it will be all too late.
hmng wrote:
But we have no hard data on who is carrying the virus.
In the Netherlands, the blood bank agency (Sanquin) is going to test blood that has been donated, on a large scale. I think they plan on doing 1000s of tests per week for Corona antibodies. So in a week or so that’s maybe going to give us relatively reliable statistical data on the % of the population that is infected, but also the % of the population that recovered and is now immune. This can then be used to fine-tune the statistical models that predict the spread of Corona.
Of course the data needs to be corrected for the fact that you can only give blood if you’re between 18 and 75, and blood donors tend to be relatively healthy anyway – you don’t give blood when you’re down with any sort of illness, Corona or otherwise.
@BeechBaby; I’m not going to tell you or anybody to leave your emotions aside and debate rationally and all that jazz. Because I’m also very emotional about all this, as I think everybody else is. Just that I’m trying to channel emotions in to calmly, at least on the surface :-) understand numbers, instead of the media fodder of pictures of respirators, coffins and chaotic hospitals. Hope you don’t mind me saying so. And thanks for your contributions.
