Silvaire wrote:
I don’t know to what degree the current 21st century economy is supported by the events, but it must be measurable.
It’s measurable but surprisingly small.
Silvaire wrote:
I’ve made some changes in behavior and planning, the greatest of which is to work hard to reduce investment related debt, reduce outgoing expenses, and increase non-employment income, just in case. By the end of 2020 I will be in a completely different and more conservative cash flow situation. I’ve also limited my exposure to crowds.
All very sensible steps and what most people should be doing heading into what will be the mother of all recessions.
Peter wrote:
the infections have sort of levelled off but are not obviously rising, yet, despite the valliant efforts to spread it by the BLM protesters and the crowds on the beaches
That’s because outdoor events are much much less likely to spread it than things indoors (like offices, airliners, pubs, etc). The virus is incredibly fragile outdoors outside the body. Some Spanish researchers found it lasts around 6 minutes in sunshine, and in any case the wind quickly disperses it. Indoors it can last days, and can be recirculated by the usual office style ventilation (which just moves musty air from one part of the office to another).
alioth wrote:
That’s because outdoor events are much much less likely to spread it than things indoors
The big question was then why this soccer game in Milan caused such as super spread. It was outside by most definitions, even though the stadion looks as somewhere in between out and inside.
One massive factor seems to be shouting or singing. Both happen at soccer games and also church services.
@alioth, that is good and useful info.
When my employer sent everybody home voluntarily (we are in a ‘critical industry’, so it was at their discretion) the first thing I and the most critical of my direct reports decided was to do the exact opposite – we haven’t missed a day. As a result we have a core team at work, coordinating effort, indoors but spread apart courtesy of those who prefer to work from home. Guess who is more likely to stay if/when any restructuring occurs? Contrarian philosophy works in this case because it’s contrarian. Meanwhile I’m preparing to be a bit more cash rich in 2021, both as insurance against recession/unemployment and (upside) because opportunities may arise if government keeps killing the economy.
heading into what will be the mother of all recessions
I see no evidence of that yet, nor any reason why it must happen. We’re as busy as ever, as are our suppliers, carriers and contractors, but that’s not my only reason for optimism.
Businesses suffering most from the Chinese virus include low-margin cash-poor “zombies” selling services which nobody really needs – like football, tourism, religion and budget air transport. Their demise, like muirburn clearing overgrown grass, heather and parasites, will make way for new growth and for existing businesses like Sherburn Aero Club (to name an example at random) which seem to have spent the last two months investing in and improving their own facilities.
Suppliers of goods and services which people need like food, healthcare, household robots, legal services, tools, housing, guns, refuse collection and fencing wire have had to streamline their businesses to keep pace with demand. Even the UK’s NHS seems less comatose – it’s never been quicker or easier to get a GP consultation and diagnosis now that they are working from home and/or using the internet.
Thanks to the CCP and their desperate efforts to “cover up” their bat virus, I see a world of business opportunity and dynamism ahead, not a recession.
@Jacko I hope you are right. But I doubt the massive unemployment and corporate and business failures to come can lead to any other conclusion. Right now there is an inevitable bounce where people spend on things they have postponed during the lockdown. The auto sector is seeing that apparently as are many others. But I think the second half of the year will be very tough and I doubt that demand will be sustainable.
The FTSE100 doesn’t appear to be discounting a massive recession
Some Spanish researchers found it lasts around 6 minutes in sunshine
I can believe 6 mins in sunshine but not in the shade where the UV is much less strong. So there will still be lots of surfaces which can carry it, even if the topside of the object is clean.
It does reduce the risk of outdoor activities in sunshine; sure.
Peter wrote:
FTSE100
Most countries have spent Billions (of whatever unit they measure in) on aid/support, and in most cases that has been paid for by “Currency Printing”. This action has seriously devalued those units so market prices do not indicate the state of one’s economy.
Maybe some countries print it. The UK has been borrowing it. Interest rates are currently negligible.
