Off_Field wrote:
Then how do you get your news. Subverse? It’s difficult to find any media without bias these days. I think I read something a while ago saying amongst the US news Fox ended up being the least biased.
I think it is important to read several news sources and then form your own opinion. Ideally read ideologically opposing papers. I used to read both the Guardian and the Telegraph online, but when the Telegraph put their paywall up I stopped doing this. I still read the Guardian but am well aware how left-leaning and biased they are. German public broadcast tends to get a lot of flak from people but their overall reporting is pretty neutral, fact-based, and they clearly label commentary as such in most cases. The commentary has a tendency to be left-wing. Same with Der Spiegel, with is generally a reputable magazine with a good online-paper but they also have a left-wing tendency. They used to have an excellent right-wing commentator who would often contradict his colleagues, but he’s gone now.
I find that overt scepticism of “main-stream-media” is usually a sign of paranoia or conspiracy theorists. There are still lots of decent journalists around doing their job, and taking the “report the truth” aspect seriously.
Peter wrote:
NY Times is behind some sort of reg. Can someone post the essential bit of the article?
easy enough to cut and paste it before the paywall comes up, i can paste the whole thing?
essentially he is saying that herd immunity is the only way forward, and suggests some ways to manage the curve using smart tracking and a lock down on and off approach moderated to match the current health care capacity.
This was quote was interesting…
But it must be ready to reimpose drastic restrictions as soon as those critical figures start rising again — as they will, especially, paradoxically, in places that have fared not too badly so far.
Peter wrote:
I don’t think the questions are anywhere near enough detailed.
Knowing me and you it is quite funny that both of us have almost the exactly same risk factor…. Knowing that I live a lot unhealthier than you for starters and am about twice as heavy I should have massively higher. I call BS on this.
I call BS on the survey because I live in the middle of nowhere, my almost entire exposure to potential virus carriers in past few weeks has been my medical (which I judged to be very high, for obvious reasons) and I work alone at the office (one of the measures taken) where I am only in the afternoons. Outdoors, I am far away from anybody else (up on the hills). I walked for an hour this evening and would have needed binoculars to see the nearest person. Even if I went flying I would be > 10m away from nearest person, and touching nothing which they may touch. Incoming mail goes into a UV+ozone steriliser. Etc.
The risk if I got it is probably high (age) but I don’t plan to get it 
Yeah, but you’re an outlier, probably representitive of less than 1% of the population. For most people, the survey will probably give a reasonable answer.
Men at 50+ is what this virus likes to kill According to that survey, my chances of dying due to this is 1% (in total). Thinking about it, that is pretty bad odds. US soldiers in the Vietnam war had a 0.5% chance of dying. Who would have thought? This somehow doesn’t seem right, but maybe it is?
Silvaire wrote:
You were responding to my post on Europeans visiting us here in the US where there are now nine cases currently in our postal code, up from two. By mid-May or whenever it actually occurs there will be none nearby, happily this is not New York City or Milano. Without going into it yet again, it’s clear to me (as it has been since long before this particular virus came around) that lower population and in particular low population density is a very good thing if you want to enjoy being human while getting along with nature and resources.
I just think that countries will be very reluctant to open the borders again for free passage as long as this virus is on the globe somewhere, and there is no vaccine.
Agreed. However in relation to European visitors the US is one country, not many and I think the US will open relatively quickly to EU visitors once the rate of infection in the EU drops very low. Maybe they’ll put a virus test requirement on top of ESTA. Obviously whether individuals want to travel is their own business.
For my June trip to Europe, and possibly for our EU resident guests returning home after a visit later in the year, the situation seems more complex. Our original itinerary included Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Italy and France with two international ferries… The first ‘fall back’ option will be delaying the same or similar itinerary to September – this is well trodden ground for me so replanning for a 3 month delay is not too complicated. Who knows how all the individual European national governments will limit cross border traffic, but because the impact of added border controls within the Schengen Zone is so high, I don’t believe the situation will be as severe as some believe… once the rate of infection is uniformly low.
BTW and FWIW I flew on a similar motorcycle trip to Europe in mid-September 2001, and the flights were great – empty planes and no airport crowds. After arrival I joined American friends who had come around the first of the month and who had no way home for a few days 
Our first stop was Milano and the people there were very nice to the group of Americans.
The survey may be right for people living in a dense city, not achieving 2m spacing on public transport or at work, and going to work normally.
I agree, something is odd about that survey. I wonder if there is a base expectation of everyone getting it that they’re having at around 50-60% I for instance, now have basically no interatiouns outside the house. I go and exercise / walk the dog on my own property, get food by online delivery, I do all the work that I can from home, I’m not surrounded by people and live in one of the lowest population density counties in England.
I would say pretty much my only risk is from something delivered, which generally gets, ozone and left for a while before opening.
