LeSving wrote:
Still no excess mortality rate in Norway due to Covid, other places have different stories.
That picture is for week 52 only, isn’t it?
Graham wrote:
Where I will hold my ground is that an 80 year old admitted to hospital with Covid-19 is probably not an average 80 year old, but rather one who already occupies a lower point on the curve.
Agreed, although one might make the same comment about anybody who is admitted to hospital for any reason :-)
Airborne_Again wrote:
That picture is for week 52 only, isn’t it?
Yes, but the link will take you to a place full of graphs and interactive maps 
LeSving wrote:
Yes, but the link will take you to a place full of graphs and interactive maps
There doesn’t seem to be a way to have EuroMOMO show z-scores over a larger period of time for several countries at the same time – neither as a map like the one you showed nor as a graph.
The map is interactive, just press “play”. Further down there are graphs and you can pick any country you want. But you are right, they end up on separate graphs, one after the other.
Still no excess mortality rate in Norway due to Covid
Indeed, and same for Alderney and the Scilly Isles
LeSving wrote:
Still no excess mortality rate in Norway due to Covid
What a surprise! It is a well known fact that Life expectancy in Norway over the last 10 years has grown much faster than in almost all other European countries.
Therefore the Excess Death Rate in Norway used to be negative in the pre Covid past and if it climbs to zero it is already a quite bad development…
Plus: Applying the same methodology, there hasn’t been any excess mortality in the US due to 9/11 either…
P.S.: Data!Country / Life expecancy 2010 / Life Expecantcy 2019 / percentage change
Norway / 81,0 / 82,5 / 1,85%
Germany / 80,0 / 81,0 / 1,13%
UK / 80,4 / 81,2 / 1,00%
Malibuflyer wrote:
It is a well known fact that Life expectancy in Norway over the last 10 years has grown much faster than in almost all other European countries.
hmm, a well known fact? I have never heard of that.
Besides, that’s not how mortality rates are presented on that site. They are looking for variations around a trend. like this for instance (I picked UK because it has a marked increase related to Covid):
Graham wrote:
Where I feel we don’t have enough information to analyse the hospitalisation and death figures is lack of a definition of ‘pre-existing conditions’. If they are including everyone with slightly high blood pressure then that is one thing, but it’s very different if taken to mean people with serious life-threatening conditions. Do @MedEwok or @kwlf have any contextual insight as to what the term is generally taken to mean?
The way we use it in German medical circles, (Vorerkrankungen) “pre-existing conditions” really means any chronic disease somebody has, no matter how mild or irrelevant for their daily lives. A mild asthma would qualify. Smoking itself is a disease (ICD code F17.1) at even a single cigarette a day, even if you have not yet developed any long-term damage from smoking. Arterial Hypertonia (ICD 10.0) is a very common disease in the western world for anyone over 50. All psychiatric diseases (depression F30 etc.) do also qualify.
Lots of these conditions do increase your risk of complications, although slightly. This is reflected in the ASA (American Society of Anaesthesiology) score, which is used in perioperative settings but also spills over into emergency medicine, because it is so easy to use:
ASA I: No comorbidities
ASA II: Mild comorbidities (all of the above examples would qualify, as would a well-controlled diabetes and adipositas (BMI 30 – 40) among others
ASA III: Severe comorbidities (coronary heart disease, insulin dependent diabetes, COPD, morbid adipositas with BMI > 40 etc.
ASA IV: Severe, life threathening comorbidities (sepsis, end-stage heart insufficiency, metastatic cancer, severe valve dysfunction)
ASA V: A patient so critically ill that they are unlikely to survive without an operation within 24 hrs
In terms of Covid, I would think that any ASA III or above condition will increase the risk of death or a severe complication significantly, while those ASA II conditions related to pulmonary function (asthma, smoking, adipositas) will also increase the risk, though probably to a lesser extent than ASA III. This is pure guesswork though and not based on any study I read, but the ASA score in general is extremely well validated.
