LFHNflightstudent wrote:
How is that different from they do not work
Are you serious? This is basic logic.
“Aircraft A does not fly” is NOT the same as saying “Aircraft A does not fly faster than Aircraft B”.
“Lockdowns do not work” is NOT the same as saying “Lockdowns work no better than other, less intrusive measures”
Lockdowns have pretty severe side effects, which very few seem to be addressing. There is of course the obvious economic damage to business and the productive tax base. There will also be health issues, mental health issues, domestic abuse issues, divorce, alcoholism, suicide, etc.
The question is on balance do the costs outweigh the benefits. And has been mentioned there are questions as to how beneficial lockdowns are compared to sensible social distancing measures and hygiene measures.
There’s a lovely fall of snow about today. I could happily drive around the hills for hours playing in the snow with my old land rover. This has no covid risk to anyone else. And under normal circumstances if I could spare the time it is what I’d be out doing now. Yet this is now considered verboten.
Off_Field wrote:
The question is on balance do the costs outweigh the benefits. And has been mentioned there are questions as to how beneficial lockdowns are compared to sensible social distancing measures and hygiene measure
I completely agree with the above. The silliness and pettiness of rules, sometimes driven by envy “why can THEY do [in an area where there is no / low risk] when WE can’t [because we are in a high risk area]”, makes no sense, and is an insult to people’s ability to manage their own affairs sensibly.
We have unfortunately not had many examples of a successful less intrusive approach in Europe (Sweden being the one example)
Could the US provide some insight there? It has a huge mix, I just can’t seem to find any comparison…
In any case, controlling for confounding variables will be hard…
LHFN’s paper says that
‘Implementing any NPIs was associated with significant reductions in case growth in 9 out of 10 study countries’
In other words, it concludes that restrictions are effective in reducing COVID spread, but doesn’t provide support for strict lockdowns being more effective than less strict lockdowns.
One of the authors, Ionniadis is quite well known and wrote the classic paper Why Most Published Research Findings are False
I think the question as to what should be covered in a lockdown and what should not, is a very reasonable one. My partner is a musician and her work involves over a hundred workers packed tightly together and singing to audiences composed primarily of vulnerable elderly people. COVID would need to be at very low levels before her job returns to normal. On the other hand I see little risk from many activities and jobs that were restricted during lockdown. Lockdown shouldn’t be ‘all or nothing’ but some careful balance maximising benefits and minimising costs.
LFHNflightstudent wrote:
No the paper says they cannot find any benefits from lockdown measures. How is that different from they do not work?
Let me make it very tangible for you.
I’m involved in a type of research looking at the shape of the earth also sometimes referred to as “flat-earthers”. In this capacity, I’ve done some actual research. more specifically I have taken a straight edge of 1m width and have hold it against the horizon at various places around Europe. If the earth is not flat, one would expect the horizon not to be a straight line. Here is what I found out – and I swear everything I write is true and would pass a peer review":
Within the accuracy of measurement, in none of my experiments I could identify a significant difference between the line of horizon and my flat reference line, therefore:
“In summary, I failed to find strong evidence supporting that the shape of the earth is a sphere. I do not question, that the earth can also have another shape than a disc, but I failed to find any additional evidence that it is actually a sphere. My data does not fully exclude the possibility it is a sphere. However, if it is a sphere, it radius may be so large that it is practically indisguisable from a plane. More focus on how to effectively deal with a flat earth may be more important for the future, however, than trying to chase the idea it’s a sphere”
Would you now support the statement, that “German scientists have shown that the earth is flat”? If not: What is the difference?
Airborne_Again wrote:
I work in a specialised area of computer science (formal methods) but I can’t say that the community is small enough that I can control who will review my papers.
Fully agree – depends strongly on the field. Typically communities in experimental areas are smaller than in theory (as the labs, etc. are expensive…).
Off_Field wrote:
Lockdowns have pretty severe side effects, which very few seem to be addressing. There is of course the obvious economic damage to business and the productive tax base. There will also be health issues, mental health issues, domestic abuse issues, divorce, alcoholism, suicide, etc.
They do. So does doing nothing. When a health service collapses the conseqeunces for everyone, including those without Coivd, are life changing.
It is the condrumn every country faces. I doubt anyone will ever know the answer, even after all the research is done, because the answer depends entirely on how much weight you attribute to each component. In short, there is no right or wrong answer, the only question is do lockdowns slow down the rate at which hospitals fill up against other forms of intervention? I think the answer we all know is only lockdowns slow down the rate of hospitals admissions in the current climate given the other tools we currently have at our disposal.
Cobalt, since you asked for a US example, I can only offer this ;-)
No social distancing required ;-)
I will leave now… skiing in the morning and then some flying on Sunday…
WOW where are you skiing? What are the queues like? Any photos? In Switzerland they were massive.
Hi Peter, I’m just skiing of the back of the house with the tour skis, there is tons of snow at the moment. Will take some pictures tomorrow.
