alioth wrote:
It turns out in news today there is about a 39 in 1,000,000 chance of getting an SVT blood clot after catching COVID19, compared to 5 in 1,000,000 after having the AZ vaccine, in the under 30s (so vaccine refuseniks under 30 face about an 8 times higher risk of SVT, more or less, should they get COVID which in the long term is more or less assured to happen).
If 90% of a population is vaccinated, the 10% which is not vaccinated is very likely not to get COVID in the long term. I’ve chosen to be independently immune versus relying on anybody else but if the disease withers to nothing, nobody gets it regardless of their choice.
Virtually everybody I know socially or at work is immunized by now, either one shot or both, and the reported reactions are as described above.
This depends, and it looks like it may not be the case.
We normally (and certainly I initially) thought about Covid might behave like smallpox or measles, where people are not infectious before symptoms develop, and the vaccine primes the immune system well enough that any infection does not get to that stage. Such a virus has a very hard time circulating at all once a significant part of the population is immune.
The Covid vaccines appear to prevent severe infection (involving hospitalisation) and death in more than 90% of all cases (which is what matters), but in 40-ish percent of all cases people still become infected.
So there is a scenario where the virus continues to circulate.
I think I wrote before – for all we know, one of the common cold viruses is a deadly as Covid-19. But everyone gets it as a child and hence the entire population has an immune system ready to prevent that variant of the common cold from developing into anything serious (unless the individual’s immune system is compromised, in which case the common cold IS a deadly disease). And you get it again, and again, and again, and it isn’t a big deal because the immune system is ready.
No freeloaders in that scenario…
Cobalt wrote:
The Covid vaccines appear to prevent severe infection (involving hospitalisation) and death in more than 90% of all cases (which is what matters), but in 40-ish percent of all cases people still become infected.
Not sure where dou got this 40-ish number from, from what I read so far, a symptomatic infection is prevented in around 90% of vaccinated people and severe disease in practically 100%.
Otherwise, agree with your post.
The number of scenarios that people can dream up to intervene in other peoples lives is apparently infinite. 
Regardless, once you’re vaccinated and others have had their chance and not taken it, what happens to them is their business, not yours, and I have every confidence that Moderna will come up with whatever annual update would be required to protect me.
Yes, but AZ trials which measured pcr positivity reported, if I remember correctly, prevention of a detectable infection in 60 percent-ish of all cases. Of course that does not mean that the 30-40 percent PCR positive cases will be able to infect others, but some may.
And it is only a scenario, but there are many viruses which are endemic in the population, and non-lasting immunity with repeated mild infections is one pattern that has proven “successful”
This may actually be the best outcome – the virus circulates and infects everyone the first time when they are a child and risk extremely low, and as soon as the immune system starts forgetting, you catch a mild cold and refresh the immunity.
The only people who would hate that scenario are the ones who would make money of vaccination everyone every few years.
The number of scenarios that people can dream up to intervene in other peoples lives is apparently infinite
In my scenario, there would be no intervention whatsoever, not even the need to offer any vaccination to the wider population. we don’t inoculate children against the common cold
I have seen more detailed research this evening that supports what I posted many weeks ago.
The IFR rate seems to be 0.3 or below across the whole population and somebody from Stanford University has had a paper published by the WHO which shows for under 70 years of age the IFR is half as deadly as Flu
The problem with working out IFR is the huge number or people with T cell immunity from previous Covid infections and asymptomatic people.
I would be very interested in Graham’s and MedEwok’s opinion on this. This has always been a great discussion BTW, probably one of the best on the internet about the subject as it is a proper debate.
Situation in Germany starts to get bad again as ICUs start to get to capacity limits.
Even in most severe/urgent cases it happens that the next free ICO bed is more than a 30 min drive away – and this in the middle of Rhein-Main metropolitan area…
Can confirm with anecdotal evidence from my department (we all got BioNTech): Several colleagues were sick at home for two days after the 2nd shot. No “side effects” per se though, just “vaccine reactions”. No lasting side effects whatsoever in my circle.
I am on day 3 now since the shot and did get some mild shivers last night… plus total tiredness today. Guess that means there is some immune system left in me after all…
Situation in Germany starts to get bad again as ICUs start to get to capacity limits.
Even in most severe/urgent cases it happens that the next free ICO bed is more than a 30 min drive away – and this in the middle of Rhein-Main metropolitan area…
Same here in the Zurich area.
Yet the response is opposite. As I hear Germany wants to lock down again quite severely, Switzerland is opening up. Outside hospitality, sports take an extent and so on. Thanks to the screamers who maybe make up 20% of the population we repeat the mistakes of last Summer yet again. Most commentators are aghast and just shake their heads in disbelief.
We will see the outcome.
