The Tesla shipment data I can find this morning is as follows, and reports on the stock value seem to indicate the change there is due to sales not increasing as fast as some would hope: the prediction was an increase to 431,000 cars in Q4 not 405,000.
Tesla sales by quarter in thousands:
I think there are as many people or more who think Musk is beneficially unearthing serious corruption in his spare time as there are people who don’t like him. Most people anyway buy buy cars largely by the numbers, and for sure not as a result of a company owner personality parade. Renault/Nissan still sells cars 
The latter factor is why electric cars continue to be a tiny fraction of overall car sales worldwide.
Depends what you mean by ‘tiny’. Two important markets. Sales 2022: China 35%, Germany 22%. And growing.
8.2% worldwide, or less than one vehicle in ten is what I mean by tiny.
Above report expected 13%, don’t know what the final number is, what’s your source?
Point is, significant growth is expected. Do you disagree?
I think EV sales will rise from less than one tenth of 2022 new car sales to maybe 20-25% worldwide, over time, filling an applicable market for those who use their cars for commuting and who can also source relatively cheap and widely available electricity. That number also will be supported by coercive government schemes where they apply.
Here is the source for the 8.2% of light vehicle sales data.
I think you are right that charging facilities may be the achilles heel. But here in Europe great strides are made in public charging stations, and I suppose the same goes for China. A report for the US which is quite a bit more optimistic than you are as regards growth, but they do indeed mention charging facilities as a possibly restraining factor.
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/u-s-electric-vehicle-market-106396
The ultimate adoption limit will be the charging – simply because some (large) % of the population have nowhere they can park it so they can either run a mains lead to it or use some commercial charger.
Outside your home and outside your place of work, the charging process is deeply unattractive. You need to be a real “green” person to really enjoy regularly stopping at service stations for a coffee, or searching for electric charging points. Looking at people I know with EVs, I struggle to think of a product which anybody could bring out and which is a bigger hassle unless you can charge at home or at work, and that assumes you never do long trips.
Normally, a product like this would be a disaster like the Sinclair C5. But there is a lot of drive behind this which will ensure some % of adoption.
That CNBC article is interesting but few EV buyers are buying EVs for “net zero” (which is a totally BS concept anyway; relying heavily on cooking the books by buying up carbon credits from the 3rd World). EVs are bought mostly for
Most people around here are buying them firmly for the 1st reason; cost is almost irrelevant. Some endure massive hassle.
The other thing that makes advancement beyond a certain % of the market difficult is the lack of a functioning second hand market.
At the moment EVs are only an option for people who (a) happily drop 30 AMUs upwards on a new vehicle (and the proportion of the population that can do that is quite small) or (b) don’t mind committing to some long term expensive leasing or financing option.
There is a very large proportion of the market that only ever buys a used vehicle, letting someone else take the lion’s share of the depreciation and getting pretty good value for the AMUs (might be anywhere between 3 and 30) that they spend on something that easily has 20 years and and 250k miles left in it.
Right now there’s no equivalent for EVs. No way am I going to spend 10-20 AMUs on a second-hand EV and take a gamble on how long the battery holds up before a full charge is barely a hundred miles.
What will also make EV market penetration difficult is that current ICE vehicles are a mature and well-developed technology. They last, and last, and last. My current vehicle is nearly 14 years old and has done almost 150k miles, but what I’ll buy next isn’t even on the radar. I imagine I’ll run it for at least another five years, probably closer to 10. These things show no signs of dying. Nothing breaks, nothing needs replacing apart from consumables, the engine just keeps turning….
Range and charge time remains the main issue for prospective customers IMHO.
Some friends showed up in their Tesla at our house not long ago, to meet for a drive to dinner together and Christmas festivities some distance away. As expected, after we’d greeted each other they asked if I’d be driving, they’d used the car during the day and didn’t have enough range upon arrival to make a 180 mile round trip in the evening. So we all hopped in my comfortable car, the one that cost 30% as much, filled the tank and headed off.
My friend bought his because both he and his wife are engineers with advanced degrees in motor and generator design, so for them it’s an interesting toy. And also I think because they are originally from the European east block, compete with impoverished youth, they appreciate automotive ‘now and wow’ a bit more than those of us who have been surrounded by it our whole lives and are bored by the superficial hype.
Graham wrote:
What will also make EV market penetration difficult is that current ICE vehicles are a mature and well-developed technology. They last, and last, and last. My current vehicle is nearly 14 years old and has done almost 150k miles, but what I’ll buy next isn’t even on the radar. I imagine I’ll run it for at least another five years, probably closer to 10. These things show no signs of dying. Nothing breaks, nothing needs replacing apart from consumables, the engine just keeps turning….
I completely agree with Graham. I’ve been wanting to buy an EV or hybrid for about 25 years, but doing the math has told me it doesn’t make sense for me. My 2013 Ford Kuga diesel is serving me well, and I plan to drive it as long as I can. I’ve got no automobile religion, don’t care if it’s powered by diesel, gasoline, electrons, hydrogen, wood pellets, or angry squirrels.
No doubt when the technology and economics are right, electric car penetration will be close to 100%. Exceptions will of course be “antique” and “hobby” vehicles. I’m sure for the redneck market, there will even be a “rolling coal” add-on to their electric jacked up pickup trucks. 
