One Elephant in the room may well be fuel pricing in the near future. The Ukraine crisis are spiking fuel prices to heights not seen before, so we may well be looking at a massive problem here. Around here, automotive fuel has gone up massively in the last year alone and spiked again right now in the direction of CHF 2.- per liter (was 1.50 to 1.70 not too long ago) and beyond. Apart from the massive effect on the economy anyhow that such an oil price spike will have, it will also make flying massively more expensive, exponentially so with fuel guzzlers like twins or heavy singles. Avgas has gone up as well which will have direct consequences on the hourly rates of GA planes.
Apart, in case of a conflict within Europe which gets more likely every day, we may well have to face massive flight restrictions if flying would be at all possible in a situation where NATO as a whole is threatened or has to mobilize. I very much doubt that once the spark is lit in Ukraine that it only stays there, all of Eastern Europe if not more are in danger.
Newbie wrote:
I think less along the lines of a syndicated Airfield and more along the lines of a company owned and guided by those that stump up the cash (us) going off to buy a number of airfields across Europe – and by a number I mean 10 in each country at least.
That is exactly what Fraport does across Greece – do you have the impression, that Greece is the GA heaven of Europe? Or do we as GA-Community need to buy Fraport first?
The key challenge: If it’s not “airfields in the middle of nowhere more than 50km away from the next house” we are talking about significant assets and therefore significant funding needs. That is not something where every aircraft owner would think “if I already have 300k assets locked into my airplane it doesn’t matter so much if I have another 3k in the airfield company”. It’s rather “do I buy a nicer plane or invest in the airfield?”
As soon as you have a significant share of your assets in the airfield, you more or less automatically start to think as an airfield owner and less as a pilot. There are simply not so many pilots in our community that would say “I don’t care about the return I get on the 200k I invested in the airfield company – therefore low fuel prices are more important to me than 3 or 4% ROI…”
Mooney_Driver wrote:
One Elephant in the room may well be fuel pricing in the near future.
If you would tell US pilots that avgas prices will raise to 12 USG/gal, they would tell you that recreational GA will die. Still, we have some GA at exactly these prices in Europe.
Looking at that I consider the GA to be much more adaptive to increasing fuel prices than we might think…
Sounds too dramatic to be realistic.
The greatest effect for GA in Europe would be lobbying for regulatory changes that allow inexpensive modifications to airframes for non-leaded fuel (to give some scalability for Diesel engines and car gasoline).
That would fuel (no pun) development. All the 4 Cyls and smaller 6 Cyls. can be changed to existing diesel engines.
Avgas is a tiny market as it is and only pays off in the US.
We need to leech of the automotive industry so to say. It might be too late with the electric frenzy though.
Regarding GA airfields, all that‘s needed is some concrete and a container. Landing/parking fees and fuel can be automated. Many airfields are still run as if internet didn’t exist.
Looking at that I consider the GA to be much more adaptive to increasing fuel prices than we might think…
That cascade has started already but even so lot of people has giving up on cheap GA like ULM in France due to fuel pricing, I expect some people to drop from certified GA to ULM and so on…
In the mean you always have people with money who are interested in “GA toys”, I mean if you can buy 1million SEP and plenty buys them, the cost of GPH is the least of your worries, the only reason why these guys give up on flying is mostly hassle & regulatory factors, fuel prices go up & down but there are zillions of reasons why GA is crippled
In the meantime guys, enjoy flying it’s worth every penny untill you are broke 
Malibuflyer wrote:
If you would tell US pilots that avgas prices will raise to 12 USG/gal, they would tell you that recreational GA will die. Still, we have some GA at exactly these prices in Europe.
Looking at that I consider the GA to be much more adaptive to increasing fuel prices than we might think…
Even at those prices, fuel would amount to less than half the cost of operating an IFR-equipped basic 4-seater in my club.
Malibuflyer wrote:
If you would tell US pilots that avgas prices will raise to 12 USG/gal, they would tell you that recreational GA will die. Still, we have some GA at exactly these prices in Europe.
I do that. Regularly. Also for automotive fuel. They shudder in disbelief. And yes, I agree. At these fuel prices there’d be a revolution in the US, as it won’t be Avgas only which goes through the roof. And automotive fuel in the US is around $0.90 a liter / 3.50 per USG. So by European standards it would be pretty much double that, current price here is close to $8 per gallon. I guess that would mean a lot of people who can’t afford to drive.
Fondly remember renting some small car a while ago for a 2 week trip in Florida…. drove to Naples, 2 weeks around and back and went to the gas station outside MIA to find my fuel bill was somewhere in the 20 $ range. I doubt my reaction was printable.
As for Germany, I do have the feeling that GA is increasing instead of decreasing, due many new ULM-pilots and owners. It seems that ULM takes over German certified GA more and more, and many even don’t seem to bother to get a PPL anymore, instead, they are just statisfied with an (national) UL-license only.
The numbers are also depending on the region where you live. There are very busy places to fly in Germany, where free hangar space is an big issue and available rental planes as well. But there are also places, where hangars are only half full and flying clubs are fighting against loosing members and planes. Our flying club for example has had the worst rental statistics in 2021 since over the last 10 years. 2020 was however not bad at all. It seems that our members have had other priorities and/or financial problems in 2021 due Covid, compared to 2020, where everybody was just happy to fly after the first wave and lockdown in May 2020. And to be honest, I’ve had some financial challanges in 2021 too, so I had to be happy with 45 hours only. On the other hand: Our flying club is located in a sparsely populated area, with low employment opportunities. That makes it much harder for us, compared to those flying clubs, how are located close to big cities and/or located in areas with high salaries.
As for Switzerland, GA business seems to continue as normal. It also depends on the flying club if they have good or bad plane availability. Hangars seem to be mostly full, but it also doesn’t seem to be impossible to get free space for new owners.
Is the glass half empty or half full? Chose your battles, pick the ones you can win and so on.
Obviously there is not much we as individuals or a (tiny, insignificant) group can do about:
What we can do is more circumstantial and indirect. We can reduce the total cost of required land by flying helicopters, or at least STOL capable aircraft, or flying to “obsolete” places. We can reduce the cost of fuel by choosing airplanes that use mogas, diesel, even electric. We can reduce the cost of airplanes by simplifying and sharing. The alternative is not to do anything, pretending things will as by magic become better. This will result in GA withering away for sure, at least our “kind” of GA.
Younger people may see this very different. For them, a 30-40 year old Cessna, Piper or Mooney (all of them 60-70 year old technology) isn’t very exciting and inspiring in the first place. Today, slightly related alternatives exist such as drones (large and small, civilian and military, for the tech-oriented ones) and paragliding for the free-as-a-bird oriented ones. None of this existed when I was young, but a whole bunch more people are involved in those stuff today than are involved with “old school” GA.
I mean, it’s a battle we cannot win. What we can do is to enjoy it where it can be enjoyed, while it lasts. Things can be quite nice in depreciated and a seemingly “downward spiraling environment”, if you only accept things as they are and focus on the right stuff. Why does everything have to be a “movement” ? and worse still, why does individual happiness have to be proportional with the growth of that movement? Just my € 0.001
So are we expecting a comeback of the mighty Mooney M20J? back in 70’s there was a huge obsession with efficiency after Golf crisis
It’s a 4 seats that consumes same GPH 300,000EUR Microlight when flown at same speed near 100hp but I am afraid it does not have BRS, cosy interiors as new Microlights (or Diamonds & Cirrus) but it’s 3-10 times cheaper, when fuel price goes down again (and they will do) you can upgrade from 110kts to 160kts
I agree with LS above
Got to aim for whatever delivers value.
