dublinpilot wrote:
Obviously in the last few days though we could see that Russia clearly intended to invade, but up to a few days ago, I thought the west might be playing it up.
Sounds like none of you looked at the satellite pictures over the last week(s). Perhaps they were not reported in Europe, but anyone who rads the NYT or WaPo could see the military buildup with their own eyes.
Jacko wrote:
The EU is now going to reap what it sowed. After years of mainlining Russian gas and hosing billions of Euros into the military-industrial complex of a murderous regime while starving Ukraine of arms, the EU will have not one but many “Aleppos” on their doorstep and an effective border with their Russian friends who recently attacked British residents and citizens with a nerve agent.Ukranians will resist – and many will suffer terribly, for as long as it takes. They will suffer and die thanks to European energy policy inspired by a Swedish brat and countries like Finland, Norway, Germany and Poland which have tried for years to block even civilian arms supply to Ukraine while failing to fund NATO or European defence.
Exactly, could not agree more. It goes further: Germany blocked any Ukrainian alignment with the West wherever it could. This ranged from excluding Antonov from the bidding for a military transport airplane, c 2000, and then Airbus essentially stealing the propulsion technology; to building Nordstream, a pipeline expressly designed to weaken Ukraine to allowing a former chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, to immediately after leaving office go work for Putin. That guy still hasn’t been charged with treason! Finally Merkel (again…) essentially giving Putin free rein in Syria and a little slap on the wrist over the annexation of Crimea.
Beechbaby. You quoted my quote, which I disagreed with. I agree with you. :-). (If anyone else understands this item )
@Mooney_Driver that’s what he wants you to think. It is indeed the message, and a carefully calculated one, but it is unlikely to be the case.
If he presses the button, he dies. He knows that.
Maoraigh wrote:
Beechbaby. You quoted my quote, which I disagreed with. I agree with you. :-). (If anyone else understands this item )
Yes I see now where you are coming from and thanks for that. 
This thread is in great danger of going the way of all others with by partisan propagande being taken as gospel. And to keep things fair, from both opposing parties. This spat, call it what you will, has been bubbling along for over twenty years when it was discovered that Ukraine was siphoning off the natural gas supply (stealing) from the Russian pipeline supplying Europe. Also bemoaning the fee structure. Reminiscent of Kuwait and Saddam. Only one bogey man??
Londongrad meanwhile launders all their funds, siphons off wads to the Tory toffs, and frankly it all stinks to high heaven. Meanwhile all the peasants suffer.
Here is an article to discuss….
Events are moving very quickly in eastern Ukraine. Yesterday (February 21, 2022) Putin made the decision to recognize the two separatist republics in the Donbas. He then immediately responded to their request for military assistance with buses of troops and equipment that began moving that same day. What’s important to understand is that while the mainstream media call this an invasion, the reality of the matter is that Putin is moving troops into friendly territory. These territories have been independent since the U.S. backed overthrow of Yanukovich in 2014.
Those who didn’t follow the 2014 conflict closely might not be aware that the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (which are primarily ethnic Russian) rejected Washington’s puppet government and voted overwhelmingly in a referendum to rejoin Russia. Putin refused this request at the time because he knew that if he moved in at that moment it would have escalated in ways that did not serve Russia’s interests. But the fact that these republics have held together for over 7 years makes for a very different equation in 2022.
International law establishes the right of self-determination. This is the entire premise of the Declaration of Independence, and any sovereign nation has the right to request military assistance from an ally (just like the United States did by requesting assistance from France) to protect themselves from an agressor. The sequence of events will lead to some interesting debates and votes at the U.N. but even if this does nothing to de-escalate the situation militarily it will expose a diplomatic rift that will divide the world in ways that will surprise people who have not followed geopolitical developments over the past ten years. Alliances have shifted. When war becomes official a many countries will hitch their fate with the eastern axis.
An important variable is China. China is allied with Russia 100% on the Ukraine issue. China also produces a ridiculous percentage of the products western countries depend on. China also has been stocking up on grains and other essential resources like crazy. If the west goes for the jugular and cuts Russia from the global financial system Russia and China will use this moment to launch their alternative system for all the countries that want to conduct trade without having to obey edicts from Washington D.C. Remember they already have an alternative to SWIFT and the Petroyuan as well as their new Central Bank Digital currencies they’ve been quietly testing.
The beginning of a cyber warfare tit-for-tat and hostilities between Russian held positions and western Ukraine will result in energy and food shortages first throughout Europe and then around the world. This is by design. This is how Schwab and his minions get their “Great Reset” (their cover for the implosion of the banking and monetary systems).
When they start selling this war we must counter and resist on every front. Soldiers need to be shown that the people want them to stay home and deal with the real threat from within: these criminally corrupt politicians and corporate mafias. Don’t let them send your brothers, sons, and fathers to die for another war based on lies.
Compliance is complicity. Disobedience is duty. Time to choose.
@BeechBaby it genuinely terrifies me that you are allowed to fly an aeroplane.
Graham wrote:
If he presses the button, he dies. He knows that
Depending on the situation do you think he cares? What he cares about is his image in the Russian history books.
Apart, the moment he invades NATO territory or if anyone tries to stop him, after his speech, he has not much of a choice. One bit he can do to show he means it is e.g to blow up a nuke someplace near a country he wants to scare, e.g some 20-30 miles off shore, message, the next one is your capital, take your military NOW and run FAST.
I don’t think that’s quite how it is. He doesn’t have a monopoly on nuclear weapons and there is no guarantee that his would be devastatingly effective. Other countries have nuclear weapons and they also have defence systems, probably better funded, better maintained and more modern than the Russians.
Tonnage of warheads doesn’t matter if you can’t deliver them.
Graham wrote:
Other countries have nuclear weapons and they also have defence systems
The French foreign minister just reminded him of that.
Graham wrote:
He doesn’t have a monopoly on nuclear weapons and there is no guarantee that his would be devastatingly effective.
He is pokering yet again with this. He knows that “MAD” is something quite theoretical and while the whole concept of non-use of nukes is based on it, the question in the case that one IS used will be what would trigger the complete anihilation? One warhead? Two, ten? A hundred, sure. A single one to punish a “renegade” country? Throw one “pour encourager les autres” and see if there is retaliation or not? MAD only works if all those who have nukes are in agreement that it is a concept which will in any case be implemented. The moment one perpetrator feels that this is no longer sure, all bets are off.
As for the wild theories: China is almost certainly in it, be it actively (such as that Putin and the Chinese made up he would not attack during the Olympics) or passively in as so far that Putin is a “guinea pig” for them. They are watching with interest how Putin goes after what he considers a wayward province and how the response is going to be before going after what they consider theirs. China on the other hand is not a power to underestimate either. Their army is huge and if they e.g. set sights onto Siberia and it´s oil and heaven knows what else is there, Russia has not much to deter them, given that both have nukes, so MAD would apply with a much larger certainty than it would in Europe.
Other than that, Graham has said it all I´m afraid.
just filed a FP, warning on RocketRoute that their support team is based in Ukraine and service is running normal but support levels may be diminished. Fingers crossed for the team all goes well for them.
