Mooney_Driver wrote:
I think what has not rung home for many is that it may well be a massive dampener to globalisation. Countries notice that dependency is dangerous.
Yes, for example Indians are very explicit about their need to develop their own version of SWIFT (as China has) and further develop RuPay and such, so they can’t be so easily extorted by west if they don’t sing exactly as the west asks them to. Other countries are noticing also. It is quite possible that an unexpected consequence of all this mess will be dismantling of the hegemony of the western financial infrastructure (Swift, VISA/Mastercard) and a wider adoption of Chinese and other newly developed financial infrastructure. Being less efficient/featured is of little importance if it is a matter of national security (see Huawei 5G and US stance).
Similarly, there will for sure will be strong push for developing alternatives for Android/iPhone, as those are controlled by USA firms and can be weaponised as well.
Times are changing…
To bring it back to more aviation related matters. Here is a highly technical chart of the Russian Military aviation capabilities.
I don’t think it’s ever really been tried
It has been tried in North Korea, and we are left with an isolated, paranoid and belligerent failed state. In the short term, we all just want the war to be over. In the longer term we don’t want to end up with Russia as a North Korea on steroids.
It’s all very well them doing all of that, but given China’s customers are in the west, they are still going to have to use Swift if they want to keep those customers, regardless of what other local systems they have.
kwlf wrote:
In the short term, we all just want the war to be over. In the longer term we don’t want to end up with Russia as a North Korea on steroids.
Is that entirely correct? Ukraine doesn’t want the war to be over, they want to remove all Russian influence, they want to be free and independent. The war could be over by now if they have given in to the Russian terms.
I don’t see how this will ever be over unless the Russian government is changed drastically. Will that ever happen with China on their side?
kwlf wrote:
In the longer term we don’t want to end up with Russia as a North Korea on steroids.
The way things are going now, there is not much of a way around it. The difference may well be, that while NK is totally isolated from everyone, isolation of Russia will happen between the West and Russia, while China, India, Iran and some others will fill up the void left by the West in terms of economic relations. So Russia will never be that isolated but will quite likely move away from any western type economy into something like the Chinese rather. Also what @Esteban has mentioned may well be a factor as well. They may well turn the sanctions around and say shove Swift and all the American controlled products up our own behinds and develop their own, not unlike China which have their own variants of Android as well as social media, messengers, e.t.c. which are not usable outside their own sphere of influence, while blocking all the others.
In other words, a new iron curtain is already a fact. After what happened, it is totally irrational to expect relations with Russia going back to normal unless a change of government or at least president happens. And that is very unlikely.
Quite possibly Putin also will try to bide his time until after the US presidential elections in 2024 and a possible return of Trump or someone with similar ideas to the Presidency. He is well aware that he would find much more open doors with Trump as well as the expectation that America would most probably seen massive inner conflict as a consequence. With America removed from the equation, Europe may well find itself between the proverbial rock and a hard place.
alioth wrote:
It’s all very well them doing all of that, but given China’s customers are in the west, they are still going to have to use Swift if they want to keep those customers, regardless of what other local systems they have.
Maybe we did not understand each other well: China may say to all its customers in Africa/Asia/Latin America: in trade with us, you can use our system instead of Swift; we may as well trade in yuan, no need for dollars either. And while those countries might have previously said ‘Swift is good enough for us, we don’t need your system’ , now they see that maybe it would be smart to have a back-up system in case the west decides to cut them off. The same with credit cards and other technology… Soon enough the Chinese (Indian?) system will be ubiquitous enough that even for western customers it would make financial sense to use it as well.
kwlf wrote:
It has been tried in North Korea, and we are left with an isolated, paranoid and belligerent failed state. In the short term, we all just want the war to be over. In the longer term we don’t want to end up with Russia as a North Korea on steroids.
I’d say it works quite well with North Korea. The fact that they are totally shunned economically and diplomatically is what prevents them being a credible military threat to anyone, and that’s the aim.
Bad for the North Korean people of course, but that’s their leader’s choice.
I agree a larger, more powerful version is potentially problematic. But the other option is to roll things back, normalise relations, and reinforce the message that Putin can do whatever the hell he likes?
No. For this to work, or even have any point at all, there has to be no forgiveness – no way back for Putin. Russia has to be isolated until it overthrows its dictator and expresses a willingness to behave reasonably.
LeSving wrote:
Is that entirely correct? Ukraine doesn’t want the war to be over, they want to remove all Russian influence, they want to be free and independent. The war could be over by now if they have given in to the Russian terms.
Exactly. That’s why the ‘negotiations’ are so far from an agreement, because:
Ukrainian position: “Just go away and leave us alone. Get out of our country. You have no business here and we will keep shooting until you leave.”
Russian position: “You will accept your rightful status as a satellite state of Russia. We will control your government. Stop shooting and let it happen.”
Talk of a ceasefire or a peace, ahead of a Russian defeat, implies some sort of acceptance of Russia’s desire to control Ukraine.
Graham wrote:
No. For this to work, or even have any point at all, there has to be no forgiveness – no way back for Putin. Russia has to be isolated until it overthrows its dictator and expresses a willingness to behave reasonably.
I totally agree. Sanctions should not be removed until Putin is gone and the threat removed AND compensation paid for the damage done.
However the difficulty will come when Ukraine and Russia agree some deal for restoration of peace and the Russians say “that’s great, but it’s conditional on western sanctions being removed”. Then the west is faced with the choice of remove sanctions or let the flighting continue. Not a good choice.
