Peter wrote:
I don’t find that list credible. Why should Ukraine negotiate for anything at this stage, when they have Russia on the run?
Exactly. However, there may be some political agenda behind it. Most likely, both the real origin and the target of this narrative are in Russia.
Peter wrote:
Why should Ukraine negotiate for anything at this stage, when they have Russia on the run?
The problem is that if the Republicans gain control of Congress, military aid for Ukraine may stop dead. If the US de facto pulls out of this and let’s Ukraine fall, then the situation is very different from today. The main analysis by several “experts” is that this could be a plan drawn up to end the war before the GOP takes charge of Congress.
The problem is that if the Republicans gain control of Congress, military aid for Ukraine may stop dead.
No it won’t. The people saying that are the same political operatives who claimed former President Trump is friends with Putin, while not noticing that Putin waited until he was out of office to invade.
The main common factor other than both being nonsense is the intent to scare impressionable and likely unintelligent voters.
FWIW i think a Republican controlled Congress will attempt to rectify as many of the messes created over the last two years as possible, but clearly the fix for the Ukrainian invasion will not be letting Putin get away with anything.
America and most of the West will continue supporting Ukraine.
Even the most cynical assessment, devoid of considerations of obvious rights and wrongs, is that this is a very cheap way for the US to smash Russia’s military and thus cripple their constant threat to the West. The US just ships a load of hardware there, the Ukrainians use it effectively while providing US and other Western companies with great real-world test data, while sending back captured Russian weapons for examination, and no body bags come back to the US.
The West would be totally stupid to waste this opportunity.
That shopping list is surreal.
Agree with Peter. That’s why I find the excuse that we cannot send certain Bundeswehr or other NATO equipment to Ukraine because we would otherwise expose our own defense outrageous. Defense against whom? As long as the Ukrainians smash up the Russian military, there is no plausible threat to Germany or Western Europe through military force.
Also, Ukraine is indeed a perfect real-world test environment for western military hardware. E.g PzH 2000 or Gepard anti-air tanks have already proven their worth many times over.
Also the “standard story” (the USSR rolling 10,000 tanks into W Germany) isn’t going to happen because, ahem, Russia hasn’t got them anymore, and the ones it has got, have had so many bits nicked off them that they aren’t much good.
And in the “standard story” they, being fairly tightly packed, would not last 5 mins against NLAWs and Javelins.
What is now needed is a West-made system like the Israeli Iron Dome, which can relatively cheaply shoot down cheap drones.
Peter wrote:
What is now needed is a West-made system like the Israeli Iron Dome, which can relatively cheaply shoot down cheap drones.
Yes. Our current air defenses are mostly missile-based, which is exceedingly expensive against targets like cheap kamikaze drones and easily overwhelmed through large numbers of targets.
What we need is a gun- or even laser based system, linked to precision radar and able to automatically engaged many targets. Ideally a mobile system capable of defending our own forces on the move, and a stationary component able to defend high value buildings, population centres etc.
That’s only one layer of defense though. Of course we still need the missile-based ones like MANPADS, Patriot, IRIS-T etc. against fast jets and cruise missiles, as well as a long-range component against incoming ICBMs.
For silly politicians reasons, there are currently two rival systems being planned, a German-led one mostly in Northeastern Europe and a French-led one mostly in Southern Europe.
Peter wrote:
What is now needed is a West-made system like the Israeli Iron Dome, which can relatively cheaply shoot down cheap drones.
Iron Dome won’t do any good here. It only works against short-range (4-70 km) ballistic missiles or projectiles, and it exploits the lack of precision in the Palestinian weapons: its missiles are quite expensive, but it computes the target trajectory and only fires at those that are actually going to hit the protected area. If you mean Iron Beam (the laser system), it’s designed to destroy targets at an even shorter range (several km), but also predominantly ballistic ones.
What would work against small drones are highly automated autocannon of the kind produced by Bofors or Oerlikon. Gepard uses Oerlikon ones. Soviet Shilka and Tunguska aren’t so finely automated, but one can probably gather lots of them from around the world for a relatively low price.
Ultranomad wrote:
What would work against small drones are highly automated autocannon of the kind produced by Bofors or Oerlikon. Gepard uses Oerlikon ones. Soviet Shilka and Tunguska aren’t so finely automated, but one can probably gather lots of them from around the world for a relatively low price.
The YouTube algorithm just suggested this to me, a perfect example of the kind of autocannon you mean:
Mantis
Edit: In addition to the above video in German, here is a shorter one in English which explains how the cannon works. Each individual shell is programmed while leaving the muzzle, really fascinating:
Rheinmetall Air Defence
Edit: @Peter somehow the youtube links aren’t working, no matter if I copy the URL from the browser or use YouTube’s “share” function?
[fixed – don’t link them etc; just drop them in as they are – see posting tips]
I did wonder what the muzzle velocity sensor on a 777 does. It must work on the assumption that your propellant pack stock is uniform so after the 1st shot you can improve accuracy a bit.
Mr Lavrov is enjoying himself
You could not make this up. Lavrov got rushed to hospital in Bali so the Russians denied it and issued a photo showing him working away at his hotel – with iPhone, Apple watch and Basquiat tee shirt (American artist who died of a heroin OD at 27).
And Russians are stealing not just washing machines but racoons
