Peter wrote:
But there is an argument that Sweden could beat Russia on their ownCompletely impossible, surely.
Completely impossible today, yes, but there was a time between the collapse of the Soviet union and the Swedish decision to scrap its territorial defense in 2004 when it could have been possible.
Airborne_Again wrote:
Completely impossible today, yes, but there was a time between the collapse of the Soviet union and the Swedish decision to scrap its territorial defense in 2004 when it could have been possible.
Absolutely impossible because of enormous population difference: 145 million vs 10 million. Even Ukraine with 38 million has hard time with mobilization while Russia is still able to provide as much soldiers as it’s required by their tactics. In addition, Swedish field military experience is probably close to zero with practically nobody within Swedish army with real-life warfare experience.
Remember Rourkes Drift?🙂 Russia may be able to provide the numbers but would they have the arms, the logistics and the enthusiasm? There are many examples in history where odds of 14:1 have not made the difference.
Speaking of the devil. DCS apparently has released the KOLA map just now. It’s a map of the northern part of Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia in painstakingly detail from the 1980s approximately (Kola peninsula). Whatever preference you have, NATO with F-16/18/15/14 etc, Swedish or Finnish neutrality (Viggen, F-18) or a USSR comrade flying MiGs and Sukhois, now you can simulate it all, in virtually every detail
This website has a nuclear blast simulator. A bit morbid, but interesting to run the numbers.
Good fun to watch, thanks for that @Capitaine 👍🏻
Now for even more fun may I suggest watching the movie WORLD WAR 4 (2019), different sources, but also watchable at the address below
Whilst low budget and average to poor acting, the story line is so realistic it sent shivers down my spine.
After all it ain’t a matter of will it happen or not, but rather when?
While obviously nobody can guess the chances of a nuclear war happening, I think one can arrive at reasonably informed views.
I’ve read a lot about this and what is interesting is that there has not been a single accidental nuclear explosion – even with the poorest countries like Pakistan. It’s obvious that everybody who’s got this stuff is taking the subject extremely seriously. And, no, this one or any of the others got nowhere close to going off. So that’s a positive thing.
Regarding escalation in Ukraine, this guy (Hodges) always makes a lot of sense
The basic point is that Russia has an unusual vulnerability: if it starts anything off, it (or the very few bits of it which are relevant – militarily or politically) will get vapourised. It will be a prob100 suicide for the ruling elite, and will happen within about 30 mins. All that will be left will be their subs, and they will get sunk by the US pretty fast. Whereas “the West” is a much bigger area. They aren’t that stupid.
Putin is planning to move the borders (one sided) at sea in the Baltic Sea apparently:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6ppl5v1lwzo
Probably just a FUD exercise by Russia, but you never know.
There are some Russian speaking populations in the relevant areas. This is the standard procedure: you invade to “rescue” your people from oppression by the locals. It got plenty of use in the last century.
Capitaine wrote:
This website has a nuclear blast simulator. A bit morbid, but interesting to run the numbers.
Nukemap is the canonical site for that, and it has lots of knobs you can twiddle. https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Thanks Alioth, it’s also more comprehensive as it gives fallout estimates based on wind.
In other news, it’s not just airlines: Greater Spotted Eagles have changed their migration routes across Ukraine to avoid conflict: BBC summary; full article