Thanks. Can I get some more?
This war will last as long as Putin is able to conduct it. It won’t stop because of peace negotiations persuade him he’s wrong or the war is not solution for the problem. It will stop at the very moment when he’s not able to proceed economically, military or physically – in other words when Russia is economically devastated, their military is defeated or non-supplied or when Putin is physically eliminated.
Emir, 172driver, then what you are saying is that he’s become completely irrational. Destroying his own country and destroying UKR. I think the guy has zero scruples, but has not lost his marbles yet. Why do you think he’s on such a path?
I agree with Emir. Not a lot to add to that really, other than to say that what will happen over the next few weeks/months, in purely military terms, is a big variable and hard to predict.
aart wrote:
Why do you think he’s on such a path?
Well – because he’s lost his marbles.
Seriously: Putin made a massive error of judgment. He got used to getting away with murder (quite literally) while people like Merkel, Obama and Trump (especially) were in power who only gave him a slap on the wrist when he annexed Crimea, committed genocide in Syria and Libya and deployed Wagner troops in Africa.
That’s for the realpolitik part.
Now the real mental issue with the guy, as confirmed by several recent interlocuters such as Macron, is that he sees himself on a crusade to re-establish something like a Russian califate. The guy, in many ways, is no different to Osama bin Laden, obsessed by a ‘mission’ to make Russia great again (ring a bell?). Where he goes totally off the rocker is the pursuit of this goal by any means – thousands of dead civilians be damned. He’s like Hitler – a man hostage to is own delusions and demons surrounded by sycophants going down his ‘Greater Russia’ rabbit hole in ever increasing speed. He doesn’t even realize or care that he’s taking his own country down with him. When this is over, Russia will have gone form a Third Word country (with nukes) to a Fourth World basket case.
How will this end? Not well, I’m afraid. The Russian military is showing total disregard for civilian life, pretty much as expected. However, now they’re shelling a nuclear power plant. Seriously? One wonders, what animates these thugs. And Putin, make no mistake, is the top thug. He senses, that his mafiose Ponzi scheme is about to implode and behaves like what he is – a cornered rat. Dangerous, for sure. IMHO the only way to end this without a serious catastrophe is to kill the guy. One way or another, he must be eliminated. This, of course, can plausibly only come from within. Let’s hope it comes soon.
Emir wrote:
This war will last as long as Putin is able to conduct it
I would predict the war is pretty much over by now. I don’t think there is much left of the Ukrainian army. The Russian convoy standing there for days and no one attacking it, how can that happen in a war? The most likely (only?) reason is the Ukrainians are incapable of doing it.
The Russian air force is hardly used at all, why not? Most likely they are not needed, or perhaps they would simply be in the way. Russian light armored, fast moving units all over the place from day one. What were they actually doing? What we see on TV/internet is a couple of cruise missiles hitting large buildings for no apparent reason. Could the reason be they simply are stray missiles? In that case, where have all the other thousands of cruise missiles gone? Just think about it. The Russian knew every inch of that country, collaborators all over the place. Every tank, every airplane and other units and military assets pinpointed, perhaps sabotaged from the start.
It’s said that Putin is surrounded by people telling him only what he wants to hear. Maybe we are surrounded by social and ordinary media telling us exactly what we want to hear? I mean, clicks count also in a war. What’s left is untrained civilians with Molotow coctails against Russian tanks.
With regard to Putin, he is as good as gone IMO. The sanctions will send Russia into a bottomless pit, and it happens fast. The Norwegian oil fund had a tiny bit invested in Russia. About 3 billion € in January. The chief of the fund said its real value now is 1/10, but impossible to say with accuracy due to the hyper deflation and closed markets. If Putin can survive this with all the sharks around him, he is a real magician.
@LeSving IMO you are totally wrong on just about everything in your last post.
Meanwhile both Putin and his arch spin doctor Lavarov have bunkered down, only to be seen by a select few in small numbers or by video link.
Thousands of Russians have been arrested. The media are being told what to say or get arrested which has led to independent tv and radio stations closing down and their staff leaving Russia. Young men are leaving in their droves so as not to be called up.
Meanwhile the Ukraniens are getting their Russian POWs to call home and tell their parents where they are and what has happened.
This is one message that will spread as the numbers increase.
The 40 mile tail back is believed stopped due to lack of fuel and food supplies. The Ukraniens have been very effective at disrupting supply lines.
Putin and his generals might well win the first part by using cruise missiles, cluster bombs etc and killing any civilians in an attempt to terrorise the Ukraniens. It will not work. Firstly there are the lessons that should be taken from Stalingrad. These are the same peoples. Secondly, there will be a guerrilla war which will go on for as long as the Russian people can take the pain of losing their sons and of economic collapse.
I have no doubt that Putin and Lavarov will become more and more paranoid as this war continues.
LeSving wrote:
The Russian convoy standing there for days and no one attacking it, how can that happen in a war?
Why would you attack a convoy of tanks that is stranded in the middle of nowhere for fuel starvation?
You are totally right: In a war both sides are sending fake news to make them look better – and therefore we can never know for sure. But just from the looks of it to me as a complete amateur when it comes to war, it looked like Russia had the plan to conquer Kijów. It looked like they sent a large convoy of trucks and tanks to do so. It looks like this convoy got stuck and doesn’t really progress towards their destination.
Yes, it might well be that Russia decided that they no longer need those tanks and truck to conquer Kijów, but any other plan to do this is at least to me still not seen,
LeSving wrote:
What’s left is untrained civilians with Molotow coctails against Russian tanks.
How do you conquer a city with tanks? Obviously you can drive into it but what next? Tanks are great to destroy things – they are not so great to govern things.
Various military consultants in France are saying that this 40km column will not stay unsupplied forever. As it is going to be a long war, russian are trying to force on the north-east side to open a supply corridor in order to fuel the Kyiv front.
The supply chain is really messy but as this guy is crazy, I think that unfortunately, it will last.
I heard another old retired army general 2 days ago, that told about NATO should have been dismantled as they more or less agreed at the ending of USSR, because it wasn’t really needed. Nowadays, USA doesn’t really care of the countries they don’t need, either for resources or tourism. Europe military forces would have kicked on and eastern europe countries would have a better choice than between far and unsure USA and Russia, and finally a better balance toward USA, Russia and China. It’s hard to say the contrary today… Moreover, Getting inside Europe may not have been seen as a provocation toward Russia.
LeSving wrote:
With regard to Putin, he is as good as gone IMO. The sanctions will send Russia into a bottomless pit, and it happens fast. The Norwegian oil fund had a tiny bit invested in Russia. About 3 billion € in January. The chief of the fund said its real value now is 1/10, but impossible to say with accuracy due to the hyper deflation and closed markets. If Putin can survive this with all the sharks around him, he is a real magician.
Economical counter-measure never stopped a war. And actually Russia is the second world 2nd oil and first gas producer. In any case they will recover.
